For the first time since the Oregon Ducks became a fixture in the upper echelons of college football, they have a front runner for the Heisman trophy. Sure, Joey Harrington came close, and De’Anthony Thomas, Dennis Dixon and LaMichael James all flirted with it, but Marcus Mariota is having the kind of year that has made him the man to beat. He is currently the Vegas favorite to haul in the Heisman, but to seal the deal, there are a few factors that need to be considered.
Mariota has the privilege of running a high-octane, fuel-injected, alcohol funnycar of an offense. That means he’s able to put up some big numbers quickly. In years past the Ducks’ quarterbacks have lost some of their luster compared to the adoration heaped on the man seen to be the architect of the offense, Chip Kelly. Nobody cared who was driving the car; they just wanted to know who designed it. Some of that stigma has fallen away this year with Mark Helfrich taking the reins and so much attention shifting to Kelly’s work in Philadelphia. As a result, Mariota is getting the notice he deserves as a quarterback in a complicated, fast-moving scheme.
Mariota also possesses the ability to both run and throw the ball, an indispensable commodity for running the option at Oregon. This is a trendy skill to have as a quarterback currently, and he’s certainly not the only pass/run threat at the top of the NCAA heap (Tajh Boyd and Johnny Manziel come to mind), but with Oregon still trying to rev up their run game and relying more on the passing attack in the meantime, Mariota has had the opportunity to showcase his arm strength and pocket presence, which has been considered a weak part of his overall potential as an NFL quarterback.
The Heisman award is, of course, a sort of popularity contest, with members of the sports press at large supplying angles and storylines which eventually come to compose the conventional wisdom about a particular player. That conventional wisdom is a murky recipe of stats, personality and defining moments, but it can be a deciding factor.
In terms of stats, Mariota isn’t at the top of the heap. Comparing his numbers to other top Heisman candidates (surprise! all quarterbacks!) through week six we see a diverse field. In terms of stat sheets, Teddy Bridgewater looks pretty sharp. He plays for seventh-ranked Louisville, has the highest passer rating (204.7!) and tops the charts in passing yards and TDs. He’s not much of a rusher, though, which does matter these days. Johnny Manziel continues to look pretty amazing, too. He’s matched Bridgewater’s touchdown total (actually topped it if you add his three rushing TDs) and continues to be an exciting player to watch (you’ve probably seen this insane scramble toss in the Alabama game https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6wp_qz5Pcy8). His Joe Namath-like off-field exploits of late have tarnished his image though, enough to significantly hurt his chance of repeating as Heisman winner. Tajh Boyd is probably the quarterback most comparable to Mariota. Their passer rating is nearly identical, passing TDs are the same. Mariota has the edge in rushing TDs (thanks to one more against Cal), and Mariota maintains a slight edge in passing and rushing yards. That doesn’t matter so much, though, since Mariota plays on a number two-ranked team that lives or dies by its offense. When compared to A.J. McCarron, who is able to rely on a stout defense and “ground and pound” style running game, it makes Mariota the most important piece of the most valued offense in college football. It’s a complicated landscape, but it gives Mariota a slight advantage for the Heisman.
That really leaves only one factor, maybe the most important one when trying to edge out similar players like Tajh Boyd: the Heisman moment. For last year’s winner, Johnny “Football” Manziel, it came when he led Texas A&M to an upset of national champs Alabama (and he may already have found his moment in this year’s Alabama game). For Cam Newton it came in the form of a 49-yard touchdown run against LSU that simultaneously broke records for rushing yards by a quarterback and touchdowns in a single season. So far this season Mariota has done his fair share of ass-kicking and name-taking (the team is averaging almost 60 points through the first four games), but he hasn’t provided the sort of drama that draws the attention of the media. He’s almost been too good. His chance at a Heisman moment will most likely come in the Ducks’ November 7th game against Stanford in Palo Alto. It will be the Ducks’ most significant challenge, and the Oregon-Stanford game is becoming a burgeoning rivalry game (not on par with Notre Dame-Michigan, but it’s getting there). If Mariota can perform under pressure in a tight game, or if he can even prove masterful in a blowout, it should put him in a lock position for the 2014 Heisman Trophy.
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