Living in Philadelphia, there is ample discussion among fans, radio hosts and Dunkin Donuts-based Eagles experts about Marcus Mariota being drafted by the Eagles. For most, it’s past the point of “if” and onto “how many draft picks we need to part with”.
While going over every scenario would take more than this 2000+ word layout, I’ve structured the article similar to how a judge would decide a court case: Illustrating the relevant facts, detailing the recent history of trades such as this, and giving a step-by-step test to test it’s possibility.
I tried to take out scouting notes on Mariota (and Winston) as best as possible, as it’s assumed Mariota fits in the Eagles system (among others) and that he’s highly expected to end up in the top-half of the first round.
That all being said, this article goes out to Eagles fans, writers, radio hosts and coffee line hot-takers in Philadelphia: an Eagles-Mariota trade is possible and intriguing to consider, but not nearly as easy or safe as it may initially appear.
Facts to Keep In Mind
-If the Eagles were to trade up in the draft, it’ll likely need to be in the top-four picks. While the draft process will fluctuate and this may change in the eyes of teams between now and draft day, the feeling now is that Marcus Mariota has enough supporters and team’s have enough need that he’s likely to be selected in the top-six picks. Below there’s a scenario where that doesn’t occur, and I’ll discuss that further then.
-If the Eagles are to trade up into the top-six picks, they’ll most likely be unable to trade with two of those teams: Washington at 5 and New York at 6. The Redskins won’t trade with a NFC East rival so they can secure a franchise quarterback, while the Jets are unlikely to pass on one of the feature quarterbacks, especially Marcus Mariota, unless their opinion wildly changes on Geno Smith by draft day.
-Therefore, it appears that the Eagles will need to work out a deal with the Bucs (least likely), Titans, Jaguars and Raiders (most likely) to secure Marcus Mariota, again, assuming the current state of the draft process indicating that he’ll go early in the top-10 holds true.
-The recent moves made by Mike Shanahan as a win-now coach with total control give some evidence that head coaches with total control can make rash decisions to solidify their quarterback position. Shanahan, like Kelly now, had already dealt with not ideal quarterbacks for two years, and did everything he could to answer his lingering quarterback question. Outside of Shanahan, however, coaches with full control in recent history (including the two most recent Super Bowl teams) haven’t made brash decisions ever to secure a top player.
–In 2013, Chip Kelly’s offense turned the mobile-deficient and inherited Nick Foles into the most efficient NFL quarterback in NFL history (for the season). Last year, Foles couldn’t replicate that success thanks to injuries, poor decisions down the field, and missed opportunities in a decisive-based offense. But is upgrading Foles at the expense of filling the rest of their roster’s deficiencies worth it?
-The Eagles had double-digit negative grades for their offensive guard group as a whole, their inside linebackers struggled mightily after a serious DeMeco Ryans injury, Cary Williams and Brandon Fletcher struggled mightily vertically in coverage, and Trent Cole, their feature pass-rusher, is set to be 33 years old by the 2015 NFL season (and in the last year of his contract).
History to Review
- Browns-Falcons trade in 2011
-Falcons received Julio Jones
-Browns received Phil Taylor (1st), Greg Little (2nd), Owen Maecic (4th), and Brandon Weeden (1st)
–While the Falcons got the only impact player from the trade in Julio Jones, losing their 2011 second and 2012 first proved costly, especially for their offensive line. In 2012, they drafted Peter Konz in the 2nd (just three positively graded games in three years in Atlanta according to Pro Football Focus) and Lamar Holmes in the 3rd (neutral or negative grade every game of his career according to PFF).
-The Browns totally butchered their opportunity, but most importantly for a team trading down in the future, passing on a quarterback (especially with their need) and a top-end talent for more picks usually leads to further quarterback issues and no feature players on the roster.
- Rams-Redskins trade in 2012
-Redskins received Robert Griffin
-Rams received Michael Brockers (1st), Janoris Jenkins (2nd), Alec Ogletree (1st), Stedman Bailey (4th), Zac Stacy (6th) , Isaiah Pead (3rd), Rokevious Watkins (6th) and Greg Robinson (1st)
-The Redskins clearly lost, as their heavy bet on Griffin being a star turned into a crippling three years for a team in desperate need of top-end talent. It could be said they would’ve been much better off staying put and drafting Ryan Tannehill, the third rated quarterback on their board, and keeping their future picks.
-The Rams, while getting four long-term starters out of the deal (which involved further maneuvering after this initial trade), including their promising left tackle Greg Robinson, haven’t been able to turn those collection of starters and role players into a winning season, and are no lock to be in the mix in 2015.
- Raiders-Dolphins trade in 2013
-Dolphins received Dion Jordan
-Raiders received DJ Hayden (1st), Menelik Watson (2nd)
-From the Dolphins perspective, this was a mistake. But in a weak class at the time and their likely viewing of Jordan as a prospect they could get with relative ease as it relates to a usual 10-pick trade-up, the logic is there.
-The Raiders aspect is much more interesting. The Raiders passed on getting a top-end talent like Lane Johnson, Ezekiel Ansah, or Barkevious Mingo to instead trade down to the middle part of one of the weakest first-rounds in the last decade. DJ Hayden shows promise of being an adequate starter, and Menelik Watson is a hopeful eventual starter. Sacrificing a potential impact player for an extra top-50 pick was clearly a mistake. Keep in mind, the regime that made that trade has likely learned their lesson between then and now.
Step-by-Step Scenario
- Bucs Don’t Take Mariota
This is the key first step for any potential Eagles-Mariota trade. The Bucs benched Mike Glennon in-season to flounder with Josh McCown as the leader of the league’s worst team. Based on that 2014 decision, it’s all but clear Mike Glennon isn’t in Lovie Smith’s long-term plans.
Conflicting reports are abound on whether the Bucs prefer Marcus Mariota (Adam Schefer, my most recent mock draft) or Jameis Winston (many other respected scouting insiders and analysts). That picture may become clearer after the Combine, but it’d be a surprise if the Bucs didn’t take one of the two top quarterbacks, with the slight edge towards Mariota at this point.
- Titans Prefer Sticking with Mettenberger AND Would Consider Trade Down
Tennessee has said all the right things as it relates to rolling with Mettenberger, their 2014 sixth round pick who fell because of character issues, in the 2015 season. Mettenberger seems like a good fit for Ken Whisenhunt’s offense, utilizing plus size and arm strength to threaten vertically.
While it’s far from a sure thing, the feeling is that the team is leaning towards passing on a 2015 quarterback, because both of the top passers are not without their fair share of concerns.
As far the Eagles are considered, the Titans passing on Mariota is only part of the battle. The Titans are the first of three teams they’ll be in discussion with to not only sell their trade, but sell that the Titans can address a major need with a top talent at pick 20. The 2015 class is relatively weak atop the board (reminding of 2013’s class), with plus-depth in the late-first and early-second round.
If the Titans are willing to pass on a quarterback, the Eagles will also be hoping that Tennessee will be willing to pass on Randy Gregory and Shane Ray, the two best pass-rushers in the 2015 class for most teams, in favor of a late first-round pass rusher and future picks of a likely playoff team. For a team lacking top-end defensive talent, it’s far from a sure-bet they’ll be okay with passing on an elite-level talent.
- Jaguars and/or Raiders Would Consider Trade Down
Assuming the Bucs don’t take Mariota and the Titans don’t want to pass on a top pass-rusher, the Eagles then need to move their discussions to the Jaguars (third pick) and Raiders (fourth pick) for Mariota.
The Jaguars have resisted the temptation to trade down each of the last two years despite the new regime’s pressure from the fan base to do so. They’ve clearly preferred to stay in the top-three the last two years, opting for one of the top talents in the class instead of scooping up extra value. And for a team who needs an infusion of young talent in their defensive front-seven.
- Mariota Available after #6 overall
With the Bucs, Titans, Redskins and Jets all set to consider finding a new quarterback of the future, so it seems unlikely, at this point, that all four would pass on Mariota or Winston, especially the Jets if just one of the two are available (and I’ve heard they’d prefer Marcus Mariota).
However, in looking past that likely scenario, the Eagles would need to target picks 7 (Chicago), 8 (Atlanta) and 9 (Giants). By the Rams pick at 10th overall, and with the Browns at 12, Saints at 13 and Texans at 16, the opportunity to trade up without having competitors for a potential Mariota slide.
The Giants at 9 seem unlikely for the same reason the Redskins won’t trade down: because the Eagles are a division rival. The Falcons need depth across their roster, but adding a top offensive tackle or defensive end is much more critical for their defense than having future draft picks, especially for the current front office regime which is on the hot seat.
The Bears seem to be the most reasonable option among the team’s after the 6th pick to trade, as their front office and coaching staff is all new, they’re likely on a long-term plan until they can decide on what to do with Jay Cutler, and have plenty of needs across their defense.
- Saints, Texans and Broncos Don’t Beat Philadelphia to the Punch
If the Eagles are serious about potentially trading up for Marcus Mariota and securing their franchise quarterback, they won’t be the only ones.
The Saints looked hard at multiple mid-round quarterbacks in last year’s draft, and Drew Brees has clearly begun to regress. They’re nearing rebuild mode, and Sean Payton understands that Brees’s replacement will lead the new era in New Orleans.
The Texans traded a Day 3 pick for Ryan Mallett, and Bill O’Brien’s connection to the former Patriot seems enough to keep him as the start going into next year. But trading up for Winston/Mariota isn’t out of the realm of possibility for a coach who knows he’s not far from taking the AFC South for the future. Even a trade up for Jameis Winston would send ripple effects into a potential Eagles trade.
And finally, and likely most intriguing, is the Broncos potentially moving up for a top quarterback. They likely would need to wait until after the top-six picks and include a player, but I’ve been told they were making calls about trading up for Blake Bortles last year had he fallen past the first few picks (as expected), so don’t rule out their desire to find Peyton’s successor.
What the Trade Offer Will Have to Be
If the Eagles coveted Mariota over having the ability to add depth across their roster, they’ll likely need to find a match with the Titans, Jaguars or Raiders, and more than one if possible as to reduce the potential mortgage they’ll need to enact.
If they move into the top-four picks, the Eagles would need to offer their 2015 and 2016 first rounders, their 2015 second, and either their 2016 second or multiple picks in 2016 to make it work. That’s an awful lot for a team with glaring needs for the future at multiple positions.
The key also is finding a suitor, where the teams in the top-four picks will have to see what the Browns received from their Julio Jones trade and evaluate if they could do much better.
In the end, the trade seems unlikely. At least two teams in the top-7 picks need to have interest in moving to pick #20 and sacrificing a top-end talent. The Eagles need to be willing to forgo the early rounds of the next two drafts. And they’ll be competing with other quarterback needy teams like the Bucs, Jets, Saints, Browns, Texans and Broncos throughout.
After just missing the playoffs this year with Mark Sanchez at the helm, the Eagles aren’t far from emerging as one of the feature teams in the NFC. Adding to their secondary and defensive line should give them the depth they need, while building their offensive line and linebacking corps should help their ability to keep winning late in the season through injuries.
The Eagles aren’t far from taking advantage of the eventual cap issues the Cowboys and Seahawks are about to face, and they’re the most likely team to challenge Green Bay for NFC dominance in the coming years.
Adding Mariota potentially solves their quarterback issues, but like the Robert Griffin trade before this, if Mariota doesn’t quickly become a raging success, Philadelphia fans could quickly turn on the potential bold decision as the Eagles flounder in draft day misery.
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