The Evolving Market for Ivan Nova

After a stellar second half to the 2016 season, Ivan Nova had his eyes on a contract north of $70 million. Reports are that the offers have been much lower than he and his agent expected.

Before being traded to the Pittsburgh Pirates, Ivan Nova had been struggling with the New York Yankees. But like many pitchers before him, he turned his season around once he arrived in Pittsburgh. Prior to the trade, Nova had gone 7-6 with a 4.90 ERA while wearing the pinstripes. He struck out 6.9 batters per nine innings to go along with 2.3 free passes per nine innings as well.

Nova’s season turned a corner with the Pirates as he went 5-3 with a 3.06 ERA. However, the most impressive aspect of his tenure in Pittsburgh was his walk rate. In 64.2 innings, Nova walked three hitters. That’s not a typo, he walked just three hitters. A statistic like that certainly is going to garner some attention, and Nova and his agent figured to take advantage of his performance in Pittsburgh plus a weak starting pitching market this winter to turn him into a very rich man.

Because Nova was going to be one of the headlining pitchers this offseason, some thought that he would get a contract in the five-year, $75 million range. Well, so far it sounds like that is a pipe dream at the moment. The most recent reports have Nova receiving multiple offers in the neighborhood of three years, $36 million. Well short of what he and his agent initially believed he was worth.

So how does this effect the Pirates? I have to believe that this works in the favor of the team. A $36 million contract over three years is something Pittsburgh can definitely afford, and Nova may be willing to sign with the club given his success here and the fact that the team should bounce back from the 2016 season. He would also be taking on a leadership role with the Pirates since many of the pitchers penciled in for the rotation have little experience at the MLB level. Some of his numbers, such as his ridiculous 17.33 K/BB are obviously unsustainable, but there is certainly a lot to like about Nova.

Ultimately I think the market pushing back on Nova bodes well for the Pirates. They should have enough money to spend $36 million or more to be competitive for Nova, if they choose to be. The team did not approach the rotation the way they should have during the offseason last year, it proved to be a problem throughout the season. Signing a veteran like Nova, who already has had success here, would go a long way in shoring up the starting five for 2017.

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