So back in the day I did a piece on how good the Saints defense needed to be to get to a 10-6 record and have a shot at winning the division. As anxious as I am to finetune my math after the season I will now look at that the stats tell us for this season so far.
First off, 10-6 does not only win you the division, you would own it. This division is bad and 7-9 might actually win it. So what would be needed to get to 7-9 or anything in between? I put the list below. I first state the record, the difference needed based on research, and then the points allowed per game on average assuming the Saints will put up 25.5 points per game as they have done the last 3 years.
Record: (For – Against) – Assumed points given up per game.
9-7 (+2.1) – 23.4
8-8 (-0.9) – 26.4
7-9 (-2.0) – 27.5
So how is this defense doing so far?
They have given up 35, 16, 45 and 34 points, that is 32.5 ppg. That is WAAAY out of the range of 7-9. That would actually be a -7 points difference, which gives you a 4-12 or 5-11 record.
So.. The Saints are headed for a 4-12 record right? Well yes and no. There are a couple of things to consider:
First off; the Saints defense will improve. Sure every team will be better (“mid-season form”) then at the beginning of the season, but the Saints defense will improve more than the average offense they encounter. Why?
They are young! They will improve a lot with more playing experience.
They have a new coordinator. A new defensive system takes some time to learn and assignments are missed more than in a system where everything is set.
Players will come back. Last game had the Saints starting 3 of the presumed starters on defense before Kikaha got injured. As that cuts your experience on the field (see point 1), there are possibly 3 excellent players coming back that are now out for a long time. Those are Breaux (still active, proven excellent), Rankins (back after week 8, high expectation solid 1st round pick) and Kikaha (on PUP, was considered possible ROTY before his injury last year). Kikaha should miss the whole season. More players will get hurt, yes, but it won’t hurt the Saints depth as much as other teams because they have starters coming back.
They faced the high scoring Falcons and Chargers.
In everything, there is an other side of the story, in this case the offense. Up until this point I assumed the Saints would score 25.5 ppg. But is that the case?
The offense has been better in these 4 games. They have been scoring 28.5 ppg which is only a 4 points difference which puts them closer to 6-10.
The Saints have a better offense this season. Arguably the most talented one in the Sean Payton area. So far this team has scored a lot and they will keep scoring a lot. Considering 2 of their major weapons, Fleener and Thomas are new to the team they should improve as they settle in.
The offensive line should hold. Peat was moved around. He finally found a spot on the left and with him in there and even with Armstead out, they have done a decent job. However, as soon as Evans gets an injury or Strief goes down there will be a major hole and it will be a real problem.
To counter point 4 on the defensive side and put a downer on these happy thoughts, they countered the crappy defenses of the Raiders, the Falcons and the Chargers.
The sample size up to this point has been small. Only 4 games and statistics are not real numbers. The Saints have had 4 “doable” opponents. They are set to come across a lot more heavy targets and are only 1-3 so far, which would be on par with a 4-12 record. But then again; we all thought week 6 would be a likely loss vs Carolina where now we see how they were killed by Julio, the chances of even this team winning are much bigger then assumed. Schedule and record does not say much at this point compared to a projected season outcome of 4-8 wins.
In conclusion; so far the Saints are headed for something like a 4-12 or 5-11 season, but there is reason for optimism if the defense improves (likely) and the offense holds its production (likely), that could put them to an 8-8 season at best which could give them a playoff berth in this NFC South (in my opinion), and making a strong playoff push you never know what can happen going into the off-season with Brees at the helm.
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