Matt Capps, the Good and the Bad

Matt Capps is one of the biggest lightning rods on the Twins roster after he struggled last year and has had a bit of shaky start this year. Part of that vitriol has to do with the trade that brought him here. The Twins sent Wilson Ramos to the Washingotn Nationals for Capps, which many thought to be too much. Perhaps it was, but now that the Twins have patched the hole left by Ramos’ departure with Ryan Doumit, and Capps is under a new contract, rather than the one the Twins traded for, so that shouldn’t factor into the resentment any longer. Instead, the boos are directed at Capps.

Here’s the thing. Last year, among Twins with more than 20 innings pitched, Capps had the fourth lowest ERA on the team (behind Glen Perkins, Phil Dumatrait and Scott Baker). The problem was that the team was so bad that Capps found himself in higher leverage situations. His failures were more dramatic because of the situations in which they occurred. The fact is, he still did better in those situations than almost any other pitcher on the roster would have been. The problem was that he is the only one that faced that kind of scrutiny (aside from Joe Nathan, who had the advantage of a great deal of back history).

This year, there are some encouraging and discouraging signs from Capps. First, mechanically, it seems as though he has a much more live ball when he pitches, a lot more motion. On the other hand, his velocity is down a bit. Those are the mechanical issues that I, as an untrained observer, have noticed. I have a greater grasp on statistics.

First and foremost, it’s still very early. For example, if you look at the Derek Jeter home run from a couple weeks ago, and recall the at-bat, Capps was pitching extremely well, placing his pitches and keeping Jeter off balance. Even the pitch Jeter hit out was a very good pitch. If you are willing to forgive Capps that one outing, his ERA for the season drops a full run. Little mistakes lead to big statistical adjustments this early.

So far, his reduced velocity has led to a lower strikeout rate, but his placement has led to a lower walk rate. The bigger issue is that his HR/FB% is twice what his career rate is. His ground ball rate is higher than it was last season, which shows that he isn’t being hit particularly hard this year despite the HR/FB%. That shows a tremendous lack of luck so far. Also unlucky is his strand rate. He has left fewer runners on base than is typical for his career, which is another signal of luck. Bad luck.

I’m certainly not saying that Capps is having a monster season, or is on his way to a monster season. Unless he can increase his velocity and strikeout more batters, he will not be dominant this year. What I am saying is that he has been unlucky this season, and when things straighten themselves out, he will be a solid arm out of the pen. It just may even seem that way, because his failures will be magnified by the situations he struggles in.