Maximizing the Indians Line-Up Production

Picking the expected line-up for a Terry Francona team begins as a travesty as Francona generally doesn’t have one reusable line-up throughout the year. That being said, we will attempt here, to find the optimum line-up based on who is expected to be in the Indians starting nine. To start, we will take a look at the baseballmusings.com Lineup Analyzer, but we will take FanGraph’s advice and not take that too seriously. In the end, we’ll also attempt to compare Francona’s most typical line-up based on how he has constructed the order in the past season and so far this Spring when most of the regulars are playing.

For this, we will be considering a group that includes from one through nine defensively; David Murphy (DH), Yan Gomes (C), Carlos Santana (1B), Jason Kipnis (2B), Lonnie Chisenhall (3B), Jose Ramirez (SS), Michael Brantley (LF), Michael Bourn (CF) and Brandon Moss (RF). For a base, here are two variations of the Lineup Analyzer which shouldn’t be taken too seriously. The first, to the left, if based off 2014 final season stats while the one on the right is based on stats from this Spring (making it even less accurate):

One thing that both calculated lineups agree upon is that Chisenhall should be near the top while both Ramirez and Kipnis should be near the bottom. Of course, much of this is unlikely as Kipnis appears slated to be the number two hitter and Chisenhall should find himself much lower. One reason for this is that last year the lineup possibly should have looked like this, but expectations have increased for Kipnis going into 2015 and decreased for Chisenhall.

Another interesting note is that the 2014 stat based lineup features Santana hitting first. This has been a legitimate idea postulated over the past year as it has been proven that placing the top on base percent player first will increase run production. While it is likely too modern a principle for an old school manager like Terry Francona, the idea is worth a thought as it would increase the chances of having batters on base for the run producers like Moss, Brantley and Chisenhall.

The lineup to the right is one of many that should be expected from Francona. If Nick Swisher were included at DH instead of Murphy, things would obviously be a little different, but even now the lineup looks considerably stronger than the 2014 version simply from the addition of Moss. Bourn has essentially been used exclusively as a lead-off hitter since coming to Cleveland prior to the 2013 season and it is hard to imagine Francona changing things up even as Bourn continues his trek down the wrong side of a baseball career. A similar argument goes for Kipnis, who has always been a top of the order hitter due to his speed if nothing else.

Beginning the order with speed is a very old school idea and with these two particular players, there is almost no on base ability as Bourn came in fifth in OBP among starters in 2014 (.314) and Kipnis came in seventh (.310). Continuing down, there is little way to go wrong with the crew of Brantley, Santana, Moss and Gomes from three through six. Of these, Brantley and Gomes should be expected to have the highest average, Santana and Moss the most power with Santana and Brantley being the best at getting on base. Given all that, this particular order of players does appear to be the most efficient.

The most unpredictable player, Chisenhall, belongs at seven as he could be very prolific now that he has been given a starting place from the beginning of the year, but he could also play more like he did at the end of 2014 and his entire career before 2014. If he hits well, he will just increase the size of the scary part of the lineup, but if he doesn’t, it won’t kill the team with him batting in the bottom third. Finally, Murphy and Ramirez are expected to finish out the order due to weak bats and Ramirez’s great speed. Given that speed, expect Ramirez to be a fill in for Bourn or Kipnis in the order if they can’t play for some reason. While it makes no sense that a player who is normally good enough only to bat eighth or ninth will move up to first or second because one player is out, it has been the tendency of Francona to do just this in order to keep the rest of the lineup intact.

The final lineup to the right is the one I have deemed most proficient. That doesn’t mean it is perfect or that slight permutations would change much, but it simply takes a different view at lineup construction than that of Francona. Included on the right of each player is their OPS against right and left handed pitchers from the 2014 season (the bold number shows what type they hit better off of).

As mentioned before, I completely agree with the order of Brantley, Santana, Moss, Gomes Chisenhall, but unlike Francona, I believe that a team’s best hitters should get as many at bats as possible. By moving up just one place each, all have a better chance at getting at least one more at bat per game than the lower lineup hitters, something that can add up a lot by the end of the season. This push up the order was made by placing Bourn eighth and should lead to less two out situations with Santana coming to the plate, allowing Moss to bat in the first inning more often than otherwise. While Kipnis is left in the lead-off spot, this is tentative, determined only if he can increase his production back to 2013 levels this season as is expected. If he can’t, Bourn could be moved back to the lead-off spot or even Brantley with everyone moving up another place. There is simply no room at the top of a Major League lineup for a below .275 hitter who can’t take a walk, no matter who that is.

As can be seen by the split stats, this lineup could be susceptible to late inning pitching match-ups, but less so than it may seem. While not equally good against both sides, Brantley, Santana, Moss, Gomes and Chisenhall are all excellent hitters against both sides with Moss, despite being left handed, hitting better against left handed pitchers. Officially, this lineup would be left, left, switch, left, right, left, left, left, switch, but as the splits shows, it is not that heavily favored against right handed pitching. Unlike previous seasons, this team should have little problem dealing with south paws.

No matter which way you stack it, this team is much more balanced than last season and should produce more efficiently than in the past. Hopefully, though, Francona can get beyond the traditional and get the most at bats to those players who deserve them, creating the maximum amount of production possible.