Tonight is arguably the biggest game in the history of college football, as the Pac-12 Champion Oregon Ducks are set to square off against the Big Ten Champion Ohio State Buckeyes in the first ever College Football Playoff Championship Game in Dallas, Texas. As with any championship game a majority of this week will consist of supposed “experts” breaking down the two teams from every angle, dissecting all the key matchups on both sides of the ball, and using a myriad of statistical measures in order to predict a winner.
Luckily for you guys, I am no expert. I have no idea if Ohio State’s Cover 2 defense will be able to slow down Oregon’s vertical passing game, or if the Duck’s 3-4 scheme is going to be eaten up by the power running game of the Buckeyes. Heck, I don’t even know if Ohio State plays a Cover 2, let alone what it’s designed to stop.
I do know, however, that this is an incredibly even matchup between two teams fresh off of convincing wins over two of the most storied programs in college football history, and predicting the outcome with any sort of confidence is a futile effort. At the end of the day, whoever plays best on Monday is going to win. Pretty hard hitting analysis, huh?
Really, as with most championship games, this one will likely come down to star players and which coach can best put those players in the position to make the game changing plays. Of course, as a fan, sitting on your couch (or pacing anxiously around the room) and enjoying a finely crafted local microbrew (or shotgunning PBRs… I won’t judge), we don’t all have the time to study up on each and every opponent.
At this point, I’d think most of my readers are well versed on the Ducks and their top players. The guys who always seem to step up in the big games and make the big plays. Royce Freeman, Erick Dargan, Arik Armstead, Darren Carrington, oh, and some guy by the name of Marcus Mariota. These are the guys that if you see making big plays, you feel pretty confident that the Ducks are going to be ahead on the scoreboard.
But, what about the other side? Who are the guys on the Ohio State side of the field who Buckeye fans will be looking at to make the back breaking play? The guys that Duck fans should be keeping an eye Monday night. Those dirty rotten rascals who would dare try to ruin Marcus Mariota’s storybook ending.
Well, without further ado, let me introduce you to your newfound mortal enemies, Duck fans:
Ezekial Elliot
Both teams are led by young and explosive running backs who will be key to establishing control over the game. While this will be far from an old school, clock eating, three-yards-and-a-cloud-of-dust type of game, both of these teams rely heavily on a well-established ground attack to keep the chains moving and keep opposing defenses on their heels.
Elliot is a sophomore who, despite a somewhat slow start to the season, has exploded over the past few games, turning in one of the all-time great running back seasons in the history of Ohio State (which is saying something). Heading into Monday night, only Eddie George, Keith Byars and Archie Griffin have accounted for more rushing yards than Elliot’s 1,632 on the season. That’s some pretty solid company.
Most impressively, though, is that he’s saved his best performances for the biggest games. Against Michigan State, Wisconsin and Alabama, Elliot has accumulated 604 yards and 6 touchdowns on 63 carries, for a whopping 9.6 yards per carry average. Of course that average is definitely buoyed by a pair of 80+ yard runs against Wisconsin and Alabama.
Needless to say, if Elliot is anywhere near 200 yards and 10 ypc on Monday night, it’s going to be a long day for the Ducks. While he’s likely to get his fair share of yards regardless, it’ll be limiting the big, explosive runs that will be the priority. If the Ducks can keep him in the 120 yard range, and his long run to around 20 yards, rather than 80, they’ll probably be pretty happy.
Devin Smith
While the Ducks are known for their big play ability, the Bucks are no slouch in this department. The single biggest contributor to this is wide receiver Devin Smith, undoubtedly the biggest deep threat in college football this season.
The Ducks have made a living off of a “bend but don’t break” defense that doesn’t allow big plays, particularly over the top of the secondary. However, with the loss of lockdown corner Ifo Ekpre-Olomu to a knee injury, the Ducks could be vulnerable to the big play in the passing game, particularly when they are forced to play multiple DBs at the same time.
This would be an issue against any team, but, the prospect is downright terrifying when matched up with a player like Smith who leads the nation with an incredible 27.7 yards per catch. Smith also leads the nation in catches over 30 yards (12) and TDs over 30 yards (10). Oh, and he’s the Big Ten runner-up in the high jump, clearing just over 7 feet in the conference meet.
He’s the kind of guy who can bail out an inexperienced QB making only his third collegiate start by making big plays on 50/50 jump balls, and turning third and longs into touchdowns. These are the plays that can make the difference in tight matchups such as this. It’s no wonder that the Buckeyes are a remarkable 22-0 when Devin Smith catches a touchdown pass.
Joey Bosa
While the Rose Bowl bludgeoning of national powerhouse Florida State may have put to rest that idea that the Ducks can’t win games in the trenches and play smash-mouthed football against the “big boys”, the Buckeyes defensive line is another animal. The Bucks have a ridiculous level of talent along the defensive line with 4 and 5 star recruits across the board, led by All-American Joey Bosa.
This season, Bosa has amassed 13.5 sacks, 20 tackles for loss and forced 4 fumbles. He’s just the kind of disruptive force along the defensive line that has given past incarnations of the high-flying Duck attacks trouble.
And, while the Ducks have fared well against top defensive ends this year, effectively neutralizing Michigan State’s Shalique Calhoun and Florida State’s Mario Edwards, Bosa presents a different kind of challenge. Not because he’s out-and-out better than either of those other two players (although, he probably is), but, because the rest of his fellow defensive linemen (namely Michael Bennett and Adolphus Washington) are dominant in their own right.
If Bosa spends a considerable amount of time in the Ducks backfield (as he’s done to opponents all year) it’s going to be a long night for Mariota and the Oregon offense. Similarly, if the Ducks have to use more than one guy to contain Bosa, that could also spell doom for an offense predicated on winning one-on-one matchups all over the field. This will definitely be a matchup to keep an eye on throughout the night.
Cardale Jones
Yes, Cardale Jones was the 3rd string quarterback heading into fall practice for the Buckeyes. Yes, he’s only playing in his third game as a starting quarterback. But, this isn’t your average 3rd stringer, and his previous two starts weren’t your average games.
In his two starts, Cardale has led the Buckeyes to an absolute demolition of a very good Wisconsin team in the Big Ten Championship Game, and then followed that up by taking down the mighty Nick Saban and the Alabama Crimson Tide in the Sugar Bowl. Name me another 3rd stringer who could pull off that double? It’s ok, I’ll wait.
Typically, heading into a game of this magnitude and with such inexperience at the quarterback position, the opposing defense would be salivating at the idea of dialing up the pressure and making the young buck beat you with his decision making. However, since Jones has taken over the reins of the Buckeye attack, he’s actually excelled against the blitz, with over half of his passing yards and all 4 of his touchdown passes coming against extra rushers.
In fact, in Jones’ two starts, the Buckeyes have averaged more points per game than with Heisman candidate JT Barrett at the helm (50.5 versus 44.1), as well as recording explosion plays (plays gaining 20 or more yards) at nearly double the rate. Remember, this is against what was supposed to be two of the best defenses Ohio State faced all season.
A big reason for this is due to Jones’ massive arm (he’s nicknamed “12 Gauge” by teammates) and propensity for throwing the deep ball, which helps spread the field and put pressure on the defense to cover not just the whole width of the field, but, damn near the whole length as well. And, if nobody is open, he has enough mobility to make plays with his legs, as well as lineman size (6-5, 250) to punish defenders when they do catch up to him.
As well as he’s played so far, it’s hard to expect anything but continued success in the Championship Game. That being said, we haven’t really seen Jones make that big play in a pressure situation, as the game against Wisconsin was a drubbing, and the only 4th quarter scoring by the Buckeyes against Alabama was the 85 yard run by Elliot. It’ll be very interesting to see how he reacts if put into must-pass situations late in the game, and see if he maintains the same poise he’s shown up to now. In the end, that could be the single most important factor in the outcome of what looks to be an incredibly even matchup.
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