Miami was crushed by injuries and missed the playoffs in 2014-15. This year, a similar problem emerged, but the regular season result was very different.
After splitting the season series, who has the upper hand in this bout between two teams with identical records? This Hornets-Heat showdown should feature enough pace-and-space to keep basketball hipsters happy, but one of the most interesting matchups will be at center.
Hassan Whiteside
The NBA’s leader in blocked shots was moved into the starting lineup during the stretch run towards the playoffs. However, it’s my belief that Whiteside should come off the bench to begin halves with the idea being to mirror Al Jefferson’s minutes. Whiteside saw 29 minutes per game this season regardless of whether he started or not, and Miami doesn’t have anyone else who’s capable of handling the Hornets’ aging big man. Jefferson has hit his stride during April, and he is averaging 14.3 points on 53 percent shooting to go with 8.1 rebounds, two assists, and one steal in just under 23 minutes this month. As great as the Heat have been playing small ball, Whiteside’s interior defense will be key in containing Charlotte’s high-octane offense and stopping its best bench contributor. Whiteside also has the most to gain from a strong performance this series, as he is hoping to receive max contract offers come July.
Goran Dragic
It’s time for Dragic to justify that max contract from last summer. Fair or not, his salary will be seriously scrutinized this offseason if Miami fails to get past Charlotte. Will Dragic be able to keep Kemba Walker in check? Can he co-exist with Dwyane Wade despite lacking a knock-down trey? These are important questions facing Miami both now and in the future. If Walker consistently lights up Dragic and the Heat struggle badly from beyond the arc, that’s the recipe for a first-round exit. Furthermore, it would cast serious doubt into the long-term prospects of Miami competing for a championship during Wade’s remaining years of relevancy.
Dwyane Wade
Wade was wildly inefficient this season, at least in comparison to the rest of his Hall of Fame career. The last time Miami met Charlotte (Mar. 17), Wade went 3 of 13 from the field to score 11 points while handing out as many assists as turnovers (three). Courtney Lee is no slouch at shooting guard, and the Charlotte Hornets were one of five teams that ranked in the top-10 in both offense and defense. At 34, Wade is a shell of his former Finals MVP self—but without any back-to-backs in the playoffs, he is still a threat to fill it up offensively.
Joe Johnson
Miami’s last matchup with Charlotte was Johnson’s 10th game with the Heat. After averaging 11.8 points on 40.6 percent from the field in 57 games with Brooklyn, Johnson scored 13.4 points on 51.8 percent shooting through 24 games following his arrival in South Beach. Adding the 34-year-old seven-time All Star resulted in some snickering from around the league, but Johnson has shown that he is still hungry. He will likely spend some time covering Nicolas Batum, but Marvin Williams might be Johnson’s most frequent matchup.
Luol Deng
It’s unclear how healthy Hornets’ forward Nicolas Batum is entering the playoffs, but Deng might be Miami’s best bet for stopping him. Deng has been brilliant as the stretch power forward since Chris Bosh’s injury, a revelation of sorts for the suddenly small-balling Heat. Just when it seemed that Deng’s career was winding down, sliding to the four has revitalized him.
Bench
Josh Richardson
Richardson kept Miami in the game last time these two teams squared off, scoring 18 points on seven-of-nine shooting from the field, including three-of-four from three-point land. Richardson won Eastern Conference Rookie of the Month honors in March after averaging 12 points (53.2 FG, 58.9 3-Pt, 52.0 FT), 2.7 rebounds, 2.1 assists, and 1.1 steals in 29.1 minutes per game. While he came back down to Earth in April, Richardson has seen 32.1 minutes per contest this month. Based on this recent article at Today’s Fastbreak, it sounds like he is ready to see a similarly large load of minutes during the playoffs.
Justice Winslow
Winslow may have been outshone by Richardson last month, but these two rookies are the meat and bones of Miami’s second unit. Winslow is a do-it-all wing who has played plenty of four this year. He’s a fantastic rebounder and a true grinder, and it’s going to be compelling watching Winslow against a Hornets team that took Frank Kaminsky over him on draft day.
Amar’e Stoudemire
Stoudemire was a healthy scratch in two of the last three regular season games, so it’s unclear what kind of role he is going to play in the postseason. Nevertheless, the Heat fared pretty well when Stoudemire was the starter (playing around 15-20 minutes) and Hassan Whiteside was coming off the bench. Perhaps Stoudemire has lost his spot in the regular rotation, but then again maybe he resurfaces at some point during this series. It’s not like Stoudemire is an ideal five in the modern NBA—he’s far from it. However, the Heat have no other options with Chris Bosh sidelined and no other center on the roster besides Whiteside.
Josh McRoberts
Former Charlotte Hornets’ stretch forward Josh McRoberts saw 16 minutes in the regular season finale versus Boston, but he isn’t guaranteed much of a role in this series. Both rookies are ahead of him on the depth chart, and McRoberts isn’t exactly built to play defense as a four in the modern NBA. Even the undersized 35-year-old Udonis Haslem is better off covering centers than McRoberts, so don’t be surprised if he barely plays.
Gerald Green
Green is a gun who will fire lots of shots up in whatever minutes he receives. After the emergence of Josh Richardson and arrival of Joe Johnson, Green’s role has been marginalized. Still, if the rookies struggle on the world’s biggest stage, Green will probably be called upon before Dorell Wright.
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