Coming off last Sunday’s devastating blown lead, the Titans got two pieces of even worse news this week. The first was expected, or at least not a surprise: the Achilles injury that had Bernard Pollard on crutches after the game was ruptured, requiring season-ending surgery. The second was a surprise, a knee injury for Michael Roos, who’d played the entire game against the Browns and whom I hadn’t noticed having particular issues. What do these losses mean?
Roos is more straight-forward, so I’ll deal with him first. First-round pick Taylor Lewan will step into the starting lineup, and by all accounts at Roos’s left tackle spot. The alternative would be playing him at right tackle and shifting Michael Oher over. Lewan was drafted to eventually fill that left tackle spot, though, and Oher is playing right tackle because of his past performance at left tackle.
With his position settled, the question is how Lewan will do at left tackle. He’s certainly a nasty player. I’m not sure how effectively that translates into effective run-blocking right now. I highlighted in my post on the run game against the Browns one play he didn’t block successfully. My guess is he’ll do better when he has to face off against a defensive lineman or edge rusher more regularly instead of stand-up inside linebackers looking to shoot gaps. Roos was not a great run-blocker, and he did struggle some in short yardage situations, but he was reliable. I think on the whole Lewan’s run-blocking is likely to be a push, but with higher overall variance. Given how important consistency is, and how one missed block can scupper an otherwise successfully-blocked run play, that sort of push becomes a downgrade.
Pass-blocking is more Lewan’s forte athletically, but I’m more concerned about it than I am in the run game. Roos was a fantastically technical player whose experience gave him good knowledge of how opposing pass-rushers would attack generally and how they might attack him specifically-this sort of stuff is hard for a layman like me to analyze, but it wouldn’t surprise if he was doing things like making subtle adjustments to his punch against certain players. Lewan doesn’t have that book, and it’ll take years to develop it. He’s a better overall athlete for the position than Roos is, but NFL pass-rushers beat superior athletes with technique, regularly. On the other hand, we may actually get to see some bad pass protection instead of what happens to pass protection when the quarterback holds the ball in the pocket forever. Okay, Oher had some really bad moments in the fourth quarter, so I’m not actually looking forward to that.
When it comes to replacing Pollard, the Titans have a decision or two to make. Daimion Stafford has been his nominal backup and is the more physically similar safety. Are they willing to just slot him in? Stafford had some impressive plays in the preseason, but I thought he was as wildly inconsistent as many young safeties, coming up with a bad angle or whiff because he went for the hit as often as he did anything good. If I were in Ray Horton’s shoes, I would play George Wilson there instead. He’s a much more consistent player, and I don’t see Stafford as having enough range to offset for him.
If the Titans do just slot Stafford in for Pollard and are willing to live with his makes, then that solves the other question, which is how the Titans will play in sub. Sub has meant dime, with generally only a single linebacker on the field and Wilson down in the box with him. That’s what you do when you don’t have two inside linebackers you trust in pass coverage. If Wilson plays in base, does he continue to go down into the box in sub? Strictly from a player trait standpoint, I would prefer to see him play up top and have Stafford underneath, but I’m getting the feeling that’s not what the Titans will do. I’m not saying Pollard was having a great year, but if Stafford does in fact play up top, I’m expecting more big pass plays against the Titans than they’ve given up to date. Considering how much the defense has struggled even while they’ve done a decent job of limiting big opposing plays, that’s bad news.
Answers, at least partial ones, coming Sunday.
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