The headline of this post is simple enough. We aren’t quite to the mid-season portion of the season, but 14 games into a 31 game slate is close enough. The grades are based off play this season alone. I tried not to let expectations and things like that cloud the on court results. The grades themselves are objective enough as is, we don’t need any more on top of that. The grades will go in alphabetical order.
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2
Troy Caupain – A
Troy Caupain’s sophomore season has progressed well. There has been some improvement in his overall game, namely the uptick in his shooting percentages. Caupain is up to 84.8% from the foul line, up 6%. He’s hitting 4% better on two point shots and 3% better on three point shots. He’s basically been the same player he was last season, just with more minutes. That’s not a bad thing because Caupain was a good player last year.
The main thing holding Caupain back are the turnovers. His turnover rate is 25.2, which means possessions end a quarter of the time with a Caupain turnover. Part of that is par for the course since he’s a heavy ball-handler, but that percentage is up from last year. His assist/turnover rate is 1.5:1, not really ideal.
Caupain taking the next step in his game and upping his usage rate a little more could push this team over the hump. He’s above average offensively, he’s a great foul shooting, getting more attempts would be great. It’s pretty much an automatic two when Troy hits the stripe. His shot has come along well lately.
Troy Caupain has had 5 games this season with an offensive rating below average. Not coincidentally, three of those were the three games Cincinnati lost. He’s the motor. His consistent play over the last 3 games has been a huge reason why Cincinnati has won all three. He clearly outplayed Nic Moore, one of the best guards in the league.
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Gary Clark – A
Cincinnati’s best offensive player in the eye test and the statistical test has been Gary Clark. The freshman has an offensive rating of 113.9. For context, that would have ranked 3rd last year, lead the team in 2013, been 2nd in 2012, and led the 2011 squad. Gary Clark is a killer around the basket, hitting 51.7% of his two pointers. Even more encouraging, he’s hitting 62.3% at the rim. His shot needs some work, 35% on two point jumpers, and 65% at the free throw line.
The offense is boosted by the rebounding skill and knowledge that the freshman possesses. You can’t teach the knack for rebounding. It’s something someone has. Rebounding is also a lot on the effort side of things, something Clark absolutely brings to the floor. Clark is pulling down 14.8% on the offensive glass. That makes him one of the 35 best offensive rebounders in the nation. He’s also rebounding nearly 20% of the defensive rebounds. Gary Clark leads the AAC in rebound rate and over all ranks 66th.
Gary Clark is blocking nearly 6% of opponent shots and is getting steals on nearly 3% of possessions. More impressively in a way, Clark doesn’t foul. Gary has just two games with 3 or more fouls. Clark is second on the team in assists. He’s played like a 5 star recruit. In fact, his best comp on Ken Pom is Bobby Portis of Arkansas, who was a McDonald’s All-American and is a very fine player.
There are definitely ways that Gary Clark could improve. After all, he’s only a freshman. His numbers away from the basket have to pick up as well. He’s been a standout on this team, if not the standout. Like Caupain, he’s been very solid. A part of me wants to see him completely dominate a game. His career high is only 13. He’s broken double figures just five times in 14 games. Maybe that will come as his minutes have increased lately.
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Farad Cobb – B+
The only Bearcat who has gone over 20 points in a game this year is Farad Cobb. Cobb has produced the top two Cincinnati scoring games this season. A part of it is because no one on the Bearcats shoots the ball as much as Farad Cobb. He leads the team in field goal attempts and 3 point attempts. Cobb has attempted 21 more three pointers than the next player on the list. 66% of his shot attempts have been three pointers.
With all of his shot attempts, Cobb has used just 18.4% of Cincinnati possessions. That’s because he doesn’t turn the ball over. His turnover rate is 10, one of the best 76 rates in the country. Cobb doesn’t rack up a ton of assists, but his assist/turnover ratio is 2.
The rest of Cobb’s game isn’t statistically eye popping, mainly because of his minutes. He’s a solid rebounder for a guard, 9.6% on the defensive glass, ranking 5th on the team. He has a 2.2 steal percentage that’s propped up by getting 8 of his steals in four games. The value with Farad Cobb is his shooting ability.
As mentioned earlier, the only Bearcat who has taken over games completely is Farad Cobb. He’s a good scorer. Cobb put on a show with 24 points against Morehead State. He put on another with 18 points against SMU. He went 10-18 from three in those games. He’s gone 11-48, 22.9% in every other game. That stat could look worse if you counted his trio of big three point shots against NC Central. While his deep shot has been okay, 31.8% on the season, the increase in two point attempts has been very encouraging. 19 of his 34 two point attempts have taken place over the last 7 games. That hasn’t resulted in consistent free throw trips. His FT rate is at 20, meaning 20 free throws every 100 field goal attempts. That’s not a lot.
Farad Cobb is Cincinnati’s ace in the hole. He’s going to bomb three pointers. Some games he’s going to go crazy and single handily carry the Cats to a victory. What Cobb hasn’t proven is that he can do it every game. Following his 24 point effort, he scored 26 points over the next 5 games. He followed up his 18 point outing with 2. Finding the other ways to score is huge. In Sean Kilpatrick’s season where he hit 30% from 3, SK upped his two point shooting and made over 50%. He also upped his free throw rate That’s the way from averaging 7.6 to 10.6. Cobb’s game is very solid. He’s been very good.
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Coreontae DeBerry – B
Something we’ve seen lately is the offensive emergence of Coreontae DeBerry. Offense was his calling card in the JUCO ranks. DeBerry is 22-35, 62.9% from the field. Only 40% of his shots are classified as at the rim, which seems low, DeBerry is hitting 85.7% of those. He’s 47.6% on what are classified as two point jumpers, which is the second best mark on the team after Kevin Johnson.
29 of DeBerry’s field goal attempts have occurred over the last 8 games. He’s hit 17 of them, 58.6%. DeBerry is a decent foul shooter at 64.3%. He’s a rather poor offensive rebounder for someone of his size at 6.8%. He’s been good on the defensive end at 16.1%. Core is a nice shot blocker, swatting 9% of opponents shots. That’s come at the price of fouls. DeBerry has been called for over 5 fouls per 40 minutes.
The huge holes in DeBerry’s game are defense and rebounding. We’ve seen teams not be afraid to go right at him. SMU went after him frequently. Those were the parts of his game that we knew were lacking though. For the minutes he’s played, those haven’t been a major issue because he’s been good on the offensive end. Any shots he can block only tilt the scales more in his favor. There aren’t a ton of big men minutes anyway with the guys UC starts, DeBerry has been doing a fine job.
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Octavius Ellis – A
The Bearcats MVP so far has been Octavius Ellis. While Caupain is the motor, Ellis everything else about the automobile. He’s been a very efficient scorer, sporting a 111.4 offensive rating. He’s done that on the back of being a lights out shooter from the field. Ellis takes nearly 54% of his shots at the rim, which is great because he’s hitting 79%. He’s hitting 40.5% on his jumpers. Ellis has added a nice mid-range jumper lately. Oct has a true shooting percentage (weighs 3s and FTs) of 64.1%, which is 73rd in the nation. Ellis is hitting 68.3% at the line. A fine number considering he’s got one of the highest 38 free throw rates in the country.
One of the biggest reasons for so many shots at the rim has been because of the offensive rebounding ability of Octavius Ellis. He’s pulling down 12.2%. Combined with Clark, they make Cincinnati a great offensive rebounding squad. Ellis has pulled down 18.3% on the defensive glass to boot. The rest of the team clearly rely on the bigs to get the rebounds. And they do.
Octavius Ellis has been a standout shot blocker in a league with some stand out shot blockers. Austin Nichols and Amida Brimah are elite shot blockers in the nation, let alone league, but Octavius Ellis isn’t far behind. He ranks 40th in block percentage at 9.56. Ellis has a steal percentage of 2.1. At the beginning of the year, it looked like Nichols would be the defensive player of the year in a walk away. Ellis has given him a major challenger.
The Bearcats leading scorer has posted double digit performances in each of the last 5 games. As the competition has picked up, so has his performance. Ellis has started cutting down the turnovers that spiked up in the losing slump. He seems to be getting hit with a walk a game, even now, which is something that has to shape up. If one wanted to pick nits, why does someone with Ellis’ ability only have one double double? Like I said, picking nits on someone who has been great all year.
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Kevin Johnson – C
Kevin Johnson is the definition of a streak shooter. Johnson is a poor 13-45, 28.9% from 3. But in the 8 games he’s made one, 13-28, 46.4%. In the 6 he hasn’t, 0-17. Farad Cobb is hitting 38% in the games where he’s hit a three for comparison.
Johnson has had success getting inside. As mentioned earlier, 50% on his two point jumpers. He’s hitting 59.3% on twos overall. KJ is 9-13 at the rim. He proved to be a good foul shooter last season, 26-30, which would make one think that he would try to exploit that to his maximum. Instead, he has just 17 attempts and 11 makes. KJ has 3 games in double digits and 6 games of 3 or fewer points. He’s been frustrating because he’s been all over the place.
One of the biggest drains on Johnson’s offensive rating are the gigantic spike in turnovers. Johnson’s turnover rate last season was 16. This year it’s 30.1. 3 times in 10, a possession is ending because KJ turned it over. His assist rate is also down from last year. Really don’t want the assists going down and the turnovers going up. KJ has 11 assists to 25 turnovers. That’s awful.
Johnson plays the same tough defense. He’s good at creating steals, he has 11, and will block the occasional shot. That part of his game has been very good.
It all comes back to the offense. Johnson is using more possessions than Gary Clark and Farad Cobb while being substantially worse offensively. There are reasons for hope. He played well off the bench last year. Maybe he’s trying to do too much as a starter. The turnovers need to drop. That would help a lot. Johnson is explosive when he wants to be. It seems like his game would take off if he stopped settling for jumpers and started taking people off the bounce.
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Quadri Moore – D
The D is for developing. Moore is not there on the defensive end or on the glass. He’s not seen a ton of minutes as the schedule has picked up and he really isn’t going to, except when the Bearcats pound a league minnow. He’s got to learn his craft in practice.
Moore has excelled from the free throw line, 11-14, in his short time as a Bearcat. He’s only attempted 26.5% of his shots at the rim, where he’s making 55.6%. On jumpers, he’s been a Jermaine Sanders clone at 33.3%. Moore has stretched the floor, hitting 3-10 from 3.
Quadri has pulled down 12% on the defensive glass. He has but one offensive rebound. In flashes, Moore has shown something on the defensive end. He had 2 steals and 2 blocks against Wagner.
There just aren’t enough minutes to go around, especially now that the rotation is down to pretty much 8 players. Quadri Moore has had flashes of the player he can be, he’s also had flashes where he’s played like Quadri Monroe. He’s a freshman. He’ll be fine.
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Deshaun Morman – C+
For a guy who didn’t play much at all the first four games, Deshaun Morman has made himself at minimum a rotation piece. Morman’s one excellent skill is getting to the foul line. His rate is 71.4. He’s been a good foul shooter, minus the ECU game, hitting 70% overall. He was 20-24 before that game. He’s not afraid to drive. Give him a look and he’s gone.
No Bearcat has used more possessions than Morman. He’s the lone major contributor on Ken Pom, using 26.8% of UC possessions. Here’s where the C comes in, Morman’s offensive rating is 86.4, the third lowest on the team. He’s shooting the second most shots percentage wise, but has an effective field goal percentage of 34.5, worst on the team. By far. Morman is 1-7 on threes and 13-35 on twos. Deshaun is 8-16 at the rim. He’s a Titus Rubles like 26.3% on two point jumpers.
Morman has 10 assists to 14 turnovers. His driving to the basket has resulted in wild shots and turnovers. He hasn’t turned the ball over in 3 games though. Morman is a lot foul prone, which has come with the ball hawking style he plays. Morman has 5 steals and 2 blocks. He plays generally tough defense.
The thing Deshaun Morman does that no other guard has done, is be a monster off the dribble. Morman’s confidence is sky high. He’s going to shoot, he’s going to take the ball to the rim. It hasn’t worked out completely well so far. I do love his effort. He could finish with more free throws than field goals attempted. That would be wild. Morman simply hasn’t made shots.
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Jermaine Sanders – B-
Jermaine Sanders isn’t having a bad season. He’s posted his second best offensive rating at 106.4, he’s got an eFG of 49.1%. He’s about his norms in rebounding. I can’t shake the feeling he’s been a bit of a disappointment. Might it be the fact he scored 34 of his 64 points in a 4 game stretch?
That has to be it. Sanders has been the same old Jermaine Sanders from last season. The major difference is that he’s upped his two point shooting to 54.5% while his three point shooting has dropped to 30.6%. Jermaine has never been so good at finishing around the basket. He’s hitting 69% there. Sanders is 7-15 at the line, which doesn’t mean much of anything really.
The season for Sanders would change completely if more of his threes fell. He’s been much more aggressive in taking shots this season. He’s been good at going to the basket. The rest of his game has been the same as it’s always been. He’s a mighty fine role player.
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Shaquille Thomas – C
The season really couldn’t have started worse for Shaquille Thomas. As of this post, he has a career low offensive rating of 83.4. 100 is the average. He’s increased his possession usage by 6%, his shot percentage by nearly 5%. His eFG has dropped over 6%. His true shooting (weighs 3s and FTs) has dropped 7 points. The free throw rate is at a career best, the free throw shooting is down 9%. Thomas is averaging less points a game, 6.8 to 6.4, despite being the more aggressive Shaquille Thomas everyone wanted.
If you split the season into 7 game portions, Thomas is 16-39, 41% in the first 7 games, 5-8 at the foul line. The last 7: 19-48, 39.6%, 15-27, 55.5% at the line. The main culprit are two point jumpers. Thomas is attempting them 52% of the time and is hitting 33%. For a comparison, he’s shooting two point jumpers as well as Big Dave Nyarsuk shot them last year.
A part of Thomas’ game that has absolutely taken off has been the rebounding. Thomas is pulling in 10.2% on the offensive glass. That’s nearly double of what he did last year. Thomas is at a career best 13.1% on the defensive glass. Shaquille has blocked 2.2% of opponent shots, a nice addition to his game.
The turnover rate is over 24, but half of Thomas’ turnovers happened in the first four games of the season. 12 turnovers in 10 games is something you could live with. The assists are way down. Thomas has only 7. 7 assists to 26 turnovers. His assist rate has fallen from nearly 10% to 8.6 to 5.3.
The Bearcats would seemingly take off to another level if Shaquille Thomas could figure out the combination of things that makes him a threat. The answer doesn’t seem to be mid-range jumpers. Those are nice when they fall, but they haven’t. The increased free throw rate needs to add an increase in shots at the rim. I feel like Thomas settles too much. Like he’ll shoot because he shook someone and has a nice look, instead of shaking someone and getting himself or someone else a great look. If he was playing me one on one, I guarantee he wouldn’t be pulling up from 15 feet half the time.
Zack Tobler – A+
Know who has a higher field goal percentage at the rim in the history of college basketball higher than Zack Tobler? Not Walton, not Kareem, not Shaq, the answer is no one. Tobler gets buckets.
Tobler's first field goal. #fistpump https://t.co/O8WqDnvXnX
— Bearcats Blog (@BearcatsBlog) January 7, 2015
Rob Blissitt Jr – A+
Walk-ons scoring is the best thing.
Rob Blissit Jr. With his first career points https://t.co/5vTpXJ16wr
— Bearcats Blog (@BearcatsBlog) December 24, 2014
Totally misspelled his name in that tweet.
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