We can keep the introduction brief for Mike Trout —you’re familiar with his work by now. If he’s not the best player in baseball then it’s because Bryce Harper is equally as monstrous. The crazy thing about Trout is that he might even be underrated, if you can believe such a thing. To wit, it’s not unfair to suggest that he could easily have won four consecutive American League MVP awards now; he absolutely should have won in 2012 (the Triple Crown be damned) and 2013 when he was Miguel Cabrera’s bridesmaid, he won in 2014, and he edged Josh Donaldson in fWAR and bWAR in 2015 yet finished second in MVP balloting. Here’s the all-time list of MLB players that have won four consecutive MVP awards: Barry Bonds. Hell, here’s the list of MLB players that have won four MVP awards, period: Barry Bonds. Except Bonds didn’t claim his first trophy until his age-25 season, his fifth season in the big leagues — Trout’s age-25 season won’t be until 2017. So, if not for some flawed BBWAA voting or teammate shortcomings, Trout could have the second most MVP awards EVER and need only three more to tie Bonds at an age younger than Bonds when he won his first. Dude is crazy. Enjoy the ride while it lasts.
Position: CF | Age (2016): 24
Bats: R | Throws: R
Height: 6’2″ | Weight: 235
2015 WAR: 9.4
2015 in a Tweet
Nobody cared that Trout stopped stealing bases because he became the best power hitter in the league, posting an AL-best 176 OPS+.
2016 Projections
[table id=154 /]Projections systems tend to skew conservative, and yet, two of the three major systems peg another nine-win effort from Trouty. None of the systems like Trout to reach the magical 50-homer mark, or even Troy Glaus’ franchise-record 47. Rather, all they all see Trout dipping back into the 30s. This is fair. Trout socked homers on a whopping 25.3% of his fly balls last season, more than twice the MLB average for hitters (11.4%) and well above his 19.7% career rate.
Trout can recoup some of that lost value in other ways. ZiPS and PECOTA like Trout to rebound from his 11-stolen-base season to a more attractive 19, while ZiPS and Steamer see Trout finishing with his best non-2013 walk rate. One of the more amazing aspects of Trout’s game is his consistency: His lowest wRC+ is 167 and his highest is 176. Such a steady player tends to lead to steady projections, which is why the models tend to more or less agree.
Spray Charts
Look at all those home run dots spread across the outfield. Trout has some of the best opposite field power in the game—not bad for a player that didn’t look like a threat to hit 30 homers in a season when he was in the minor leagues.
It would be nice if Trout hit for more triples, his six last year marking a career low. You know it’s tough to find faults in a player’s game when you’re criticizing that he only hit six triples.
Zone Profile
In 2014, it was assumed that the way to beat Trout was via the high strike. Trout crushes low pitches, so pitchers exploited the upper third of the zone to great success, as Trout hit .241 on pitches up-and-in the strike zone, .129 on high strikes down the middle, and .071 on pitches up-and-away in the strike zone. I guess Trout had been figured out, right? LOL nope. Trout improved all those batting averages, including a lethal .429 on pitches up-and-in, his best zone batting average in 2015 other than pitches right down the middle or low-and-away out of the strike zone. No, there’s no instant remedy to defeat Trout. Pitchers just have to throw the ball and pray.
Fun Fact
Trout is really into the weather. Like, he loves weather. Here’s Trout on The Weather Channel during Snowmageddon giving his account of the snowfall near his home, saying he was up all night monitoring the precipitation.
What to Watch For
We know Trout is going to hit the crap out of the ball, and even if he’s no longer a threat to steal bases he’ll still add positive value on the base paths—at least, on those rare occasions when he’s not slowly trotting around all the bases. But the thing to keep an eye on is his defensive performance in center. Other than his rookie campaign, fielding metrics have mostly pegged Trout as a slightly below average center fielder. He was worth minus-9 defensive runs saved in 2013 and 2014, but according to DRS he saved the Angels five runs last year. As long has Trout hovers around average, he’s a tremendous asset. The longer he can capably play in center before being forced to move to a corner, the better. If Trout can play well above average defense this year, then that’s how he can bump his WAR into the double digits.
A Bold Prediction
Anything I could say wouldn’t sound that bold because Trout has already proven he can do it all. I wouldn’t even bet against him picking up a presidential nomination. So let’s say Trout cracks 10 wins above replacement on fWAR, bWAR, and WARP…and again finishes as the MVP runner-up. Five consecutive top-two MVP finishes is ludicrous.
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Previous Previews: Yunel Escobar; Kole Calhoun
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