Minnesota Wild 2010 Draft Preview: Defenseman

The old saying in team sports is, “defense wins championships” and many of the most successful teams were known for their excellent defensive prowess.  The 1970’s Montreal Canadiens dynasty was due in large part to their suffocating defense helped by Hall of Famers Larry Robinson, Serge Savard, and current Wild Director of Amateur Scouting Guy Lapointe.  Having such high quality defenseman patrolling Les Habitants’ blueline certainly helped goaltender Ken Dryden in a big way.  The same could be said for the New Jersey Devils with Hall of Famer Scott Stevens and future Hall of Famer Scott Niedermayer shutting teams down certainly helping Martin Brodeur become the winningest goaltender in NHL history.  The addition of a quality defenseman can make all the difference in the world, just ask the Anaheim Ducks who won the Stanley Cup in 2007 by trading for the aforementioned Niedermayer and Chris Pronger.  Drafting a high quality defenseman can change the direction of a franchise, but there are certainly perils in selecting blueliners in the first round.  Would Detroit be as good as they have been the last 15 years if they had not selected perennial Norris Trophy candidate Nicklas Lidstrom (53rd Overall in 1989), or would Montreal have managed to win a Stanley Cup in 1986 without drafting Chris Chelios (40th Overall in 1981) yes I know the selection of Patrick Roy (51st Overall in 1984) may have played a slightly bigger role but it doesn’t take away from the impact a quality blueliner can have on a team.

Defenseman typically take longer to develop and have a more dramatic adjustment to the speed of play at the NHL level.  Players that can look dominant at junior levels can suddenly look like a deer in headlights as they are mesmerized by the incredible speed of NHL forwards.  If there is one portion of the Wild’s prospect pool that seems to be the deepest it in its stable of young defenseman.  Some of these prospects like Tyler Cuma (23rd Overall in 2008), Marco Scandella (55th Overall in 2008), Justin Falk (110th Overall in 2007), Sean Lorenz (115th Overall in 2008), Kyle Medvec (102nd Overall in 2006) and Clayton Stoner (79th Overall in 2004) were drafted by the organization.  Others like Maxim Noreau and Nate Prosser were picked up as free agents.  Stoner, Scandella and Prosser appear to be the closest to being ready for the NHL and with the team unlikely to re-sign John Scott and Shane Hnidy.  The team typically used free agency to stock its blueline with veteran talent but with the Wild salary heavy in its defenseman, to the tune of $16.95 million (which to equates to roughly 30% of the team’s room under the projected $58 million salary cap for next season) with one more spot left to fill.

In its team history it has only developed two defenseman internally that have become integral parts of the organization in Nick Schultz (33rd Overall in 2000) and Brent Burns (20th Overall in 2003).  Burns was not even originally selected as a defenseman, having been drafted as a right wing who had played defense in his minor hockey days.  The Wild lucked out that he was athletic enough to convert back to defense after ineffective results at wing.  In 2004, the Wild drafted a defenseman in the 1st round in Minnesota-born A.J. Thelen (12th Overall) but after a promising freshman year with Michigan State he quickly spiraled into the team’s first 1st round bust.  Tyler Cuma has struggled since being selected and last year’s pick, Nick Leddy (16th Overall in 2009) was quickly traded away along with Kim Johnsson to the Blackhawks for Cam Barker.  So needless to say the 1st round and Wild defensive selections do not have a great track record of success.

So what are this team’s most glaring needs?  In this order is how I percieve the organization’s 3 biggest needs.

1.  Forwards – Preferably skilled, offensively skilled with an emphasis on goal scoring.  (Already covered here)

http://www.stateofhockeynews.com/2010-articles/june/minnesota-wild-2010-draft-preview-forwards.html

2.  Defenseman – Preferably rugged, physical stay at home defenseman that opposing teams hate to play against.

3.  Goaltenders – There is still an organizational need for another blue chip goaltending to either become Matthew Hackett‘s eventual backup or the #1 goaltender themselves.

Over the next week or so I will provide my top 5 candidates at each position keeping my focus on the types of players that fit the paradigms I’ve provided.  You may agree or disagree with my choices as you may feel it avoids simply taking the “best player available” by taking a player that this organization desperately needs.  Although if you believe Minneapolis Star Tribune beat writer Michael Russo or the words of Wild Assistant General Manager Brent Flahr in an interview he recently gave wild.com that the team will focus on taking the “best player available.”  While I think there is a time and place for such a strategy, i.e. a time where where the organization’s prospect depth is fairly deep at all positions but that would not describe this team’s prospect pool at all.

For each player I will include this year’s statistics along with rankings from International Scouting Services, Central Scouting Service, and the Hockey News‘ Draft Preview.  Anyways, here are the Top 5 Defenseman that I think will be available when the Wild make their selection with the 9th Overall pick.

1.  Derek Forbort – U.S. National Development Team (USHL)

Height:  6’4.5″  Weight:  198lbs  Shoots:  Left

CSS Final ranking:  9th (NA)  ISS Final ranking:  10th  The Hockey News‘ ranking: 11th

2009-10 Stats:  65GP  5G  23A = 28pts  46 PIM’s  +12

Talent Analysis:  I remember two seasons ago on Hockey Day Minnesota watching Derek Forbort play for Duluth East.  He was like a man amongst boys, who possessed superior size and who is a great skater that made him a constant threat to score and was easily the most dominant player on the ice.  Forbort then took the bold move of joining the U.S. Development Program to improve his standing in the draft and you would have to say the move paid off.  Forbort is a big man with tremendous size who also possesses great mobility that has some scouts making comparisons to another mobile big man, Tyler Myers.  The former Duluth East Greyhound uses his big body well to punish the opposition with big checks and makes effective use of his long reach.  Like most young players he could stand to bulk up and add strength to his frame but most scouts agree that when he does he will be a solid top pairing defenseman that could be a franchise core component for years to come.  Forbort also demonstrates good offensive instincts, being able to jump into the rush but is balanced by his safe intelligent defensive game.  Bottom Line: Derek Forbort is the total package for a defenseman; size, skill, a great skater who has tremendous upside to be on the Wild’s top pairing for years.

2.  Jonathan Merrill – U.S. National Development Program (USHL)

Height:  6’3″  Weight:  198lbs  Shoots:  Left

CSS Final ranking: 21st (NA)  ISS Final ranking: 11th  The Hockey News‘ ranking:  31st

2009-10 Stats:  55GP  5G  27A = 32pts  18 PIM’s  +3

Talent Analysis:  While perhaps not as flashy as Derek Forbort, U.S. National Development program teammate Jonathan Merrill is also a very impressive defensive prospect.  A highly intelligent player with good mobility and size he can do many of the same things Forbort can.  Perhaps more of a thinking defenseman than an instinctual one, Merrill sizes up a situation quickly and then makes a sound play with the puck.  If Merrill does have an area of improvement it is in the area of lack of quickness.  The Brighton, Michigan-native could stand to add strength to his frame but as you can see by the rankings the scouts are mixed about where they feel Merrill should rank.  Part of that stems from an incident where Merrill and another member of the U.S. team were suspended for two weeks for violating team rules.  Most scouts agree that Merrill is a player with great physical tools, and whoever selects him will get a player with a huge upside.  Bottom Line: Another big, mobile defenseman who has great two-way skill and has genuine top pairing potential.

3.  Jarred Tinordi – U.S. National Development Program (USHL)

Height:  6’5.5″  Weight:  205lbs  Shoots:  Left

CSS Final ranking:  38th (NA)  ISS Final ranking:  25th  The Hockey News‘ ranking:  22nd

2009-10 Stats:  65GP  6G  11A = 17pts  105 PIM’s  +14

Talent Analysis:  The name should sound familiar to former Minnesota North Stars fans as his father Mark Tinordi was a stalwart on the North Stars blueline.  In many ways the apple did not fall far from the tree as his son plays a strong, physical style of game that was his father’s trademark.  It might seem overdone that my top 3 picks are from the U.S. National Development Program but it has really become a hockey factory of sorts and its tremendous performances at the World U-18 and U-20 events is a testament to their success.  Tinordi has tremendous size and strength and has a mean streak that makes opponents take notice.  Positionally solid, who plays well both near and away from the puck any team that selects Tinordi gets a player who is always aware of game situation and does not take foolish risks.  The Millersville, Maryland-native can make the first good pass but is not going to be mistaken for being an offensive-minded defenseman.  Like his father, Tinordi moves well enough for his role but still could use to work on his skating.  To play a physical game at the NHL level Tinordi will also have to bulk up to perhaps around 225-230lbs in order to be as effective as a shut down physical defender as he has been at the Jr. A level.  Bottom Line: Tinordi is not a player you take at 9th, but if the team decides to trade down Jarred Tinordi might be a terrific prize later in the 1st round or a great pickup early in the 2nd round.

4.  Dylan McIlrath – Moose Jaw Warriors (WHL)

Height:  6’4″  Weight:  212lbs  Shoots:  Right

CSS Final ranking:  17th (NA)  ISS Final ranking:  31st  The Hockey News‘ ranking:  26th

2009-10 Stats:  65GP  7G  17A = 24pts  169 PIM’s  +20

Talent Analysis:  With the possible exception of Derek Boogaard the Wild have never had a player that could truly be considered mean and nasty.  As Boogaard, who may be leaving the Wild this summer is considered by many to be the toughest players in the NHL, McIlrath is considered by many to be the toughest player available in this draft.  A strong, physically punishing defenseman who does not shy away from dropping the gloves McIlrath is so tough he even intimidates overragers playing in the Western Hockey League.  McIlrath is perhaps at times too aggressive as occasionally he’ll get caught pinching offensively.  The Winnipeg, Manitoba-native still needs to work on his footwork and his skating as well as his skills with the puck.  While the puck skills need work, he does understand the need to move the puck quickly and scouts believe he has a lot of potential but those issues do make him a bit more of a project.  Bottom Line: Another player like Tinordi who you will not take with the 9th Overall pick, but if you trade down or have a chance to take him into the 2nd round you consider it since the Wild do not have a defensive prospect like McIlrath who is a pure hitting machine.

5.  Mark Pysyk – Edmonton Oil Kings (WHL)

Height:  6’1″  Weight:  174lbs  Shoots:  Right

CSS Final ranking:  7th (NA)  ISS Final ranking:  17th  The Hockey News‘ ranking:  16th

2009-10 Stats:  48GP  7G  17A = 24pts  47 PIM’s  -19

Talent Analysis:  Admittedly, Mark Pysyk strays away from the paradigm I’ve provided for the Wild needing a rugged, physical defenseman.  Pysyk is your smooth skating offensively gifted blueliner who can quarterback your power play and make great plays at high speed.  The Sherwood Park, Alberta-native’s best assett is his skating who can use his speed to both help start the rush or to track down the opposition’s speediest forwards in a style similar to Chicago’s Duncan Keith.  While Pysyk gets a lot of credit for his skating and offensive traits he is also a responsible defender.  The -19 he had was more reflective of the team he played for than poor play on his part.  Pysyk possesses a high hockey IQ and is the type of defender that can log 25+ minutes a game and be very useful at both ends of the ice.  He is not a physical player, which is something he will need to work on as he develops and adding strength to his frame will be essential to that goal.  Bottom Line: While not a physical defenseman, his skating makes and hockey sense make him a very versatile two-way defenseman who could really blossom into a top pairing defenseman.  Unlike McIlrath and Tinordi, Pysyk is a player you can select at 9th Overall and feel as though you’re likely getting great value for your selection.