Minor League Update

By Andrew Lipsett
With the June Amateur Draft fast approaching – The first rounds will take place on the 6th – I thought it would be a good idea to check in on a few of the Sox most interesting current prospects, from all levels of the minors.
As so frequently happens with prospects, many of the most promising players in the system have performed below the hopes of many to this point in the year. In some cases, the mixed resluts can be chalked up to players adjusting to new levels – most of the top-level prospects were promoted in the offseason, and some have taken some time to get used to a new level of competition. There have been a couple breakthroughs, along with a couple stragglers; it will take some time to figure out exactly what each player could bring to the table. So, today and Saturday, I’ll look at twelve players from Pawtucket to Greenville, with quick sketches of what they’ve done so far and what we might expect in coming months. Today’s list will include players in Pawtucket and Portland, while the low-minors – Wilmington and Greenville – I’ll discuss Saturday.
Jon Lester, 22, LHP, Pawtucket
Lester has settled in impressively after a few rough starts early in the year. At the start of the season, the Sox development team had Lester on a very strict pitch count, with an emphasis on secondary pitches, which almost certainly contributed to his struggles. Still, despite a 2-4 record, Lester has posted a 3.13 ERA while striking out just under a batter an inning (37 K’s in 37 1/3 IP). His control has suffered somewhat – while last season he walked a batter every 2.6 innings, this year that figure stands at one every 2.2. Lester’s command has never been fantastic, but it’s always been serviceable; a few more starts with slightly better control will put him in line with last year’s excellent campaign.
Overall, Lester remains the Sox’ most promising prospect, pitching or otherwise. As his season has moved on, his performance has improved; as spring moves into summer, and if this improvement rate continues, Lester could be seeing MLB action by July.
Dustin Pedroia, 22, SS, Pawtucket
Pedroia became a household name last season, as his hot start and the Sox’ struggles at 2B led many to call for him to be called to the big club. His numbers in Pawtucket, both last season and this season, have vindicated the Sox’ caution; a month and a half into the season, Pedroia hasn’t shown the contact ability or the power potential he demonstrated in Portland through much of 2005. Pedroia is currently hitting .261/.356/.365, as compared to a final Portland 05 line of .324/.409/.508. Last season in Portland, Pedroia struck out once every 10 AB’s – a very solid mark. This season, however, that rate has dropped to once every 6.8 AB’s – still fairly good, but possibly reflecting a lack of comfort against higher-level pitching. The good news is that at this early point, his walk rate has improved minimally, so his zone recognition remains strong. By all accounts, Pedroia has adjusted fairly well to SS, making him a more versatile option should he improve enough to warrant a call-up. Still, given his slow start, I would not expect to see Pedroia with Boston any sooner than September call-ups.
Craig Hansen, 22, RHP, Pawtucket
Hansen – promoted from Portland to Pawtucket early in the season – has already had a very interesting career in the Sox system. From a surprisingly low draft slot – he was expected to go in the top 10 of the 05 draft, but fell to the Sox at #23 – Hansen signed late and shot through the system, pitching just under 12 scoreless innings in the minors before joining the Boston pen. Hansen had mixed results in Boston, which many chalked up to his stop-start few months between closing for St. John’s and the open of his pro career. He was assigned to Portland to begin the season, and threw 11 innings while striking out 12, walking 4, and allowing only a single earned run. Since his promotion to Pawtucket at the close of April, he’s thrown 15 2/3 IP, striking out 13 but walking an alarming 10, while allowing 5 ER for a 2.87 ERA. There have also been rumors that the Sox are stretching him out to see if he can compete as a starter; I personally thinnk this is a bad move made potentially out of desperation, but then I’m just some guy who writes on the internet.
It’s tough to really tell much about a minor-league reliever from the numbers alone; certainly Hansen has an excellent K rate that would likely translate well to the majors. His control in Pawtucket is worrisome, but with just uner 16 innings under his belt, it’s also a tremendously small sample. Hansen has almost perfect closer stuff – a great fastball backed by a devastating slider that has drawn comparisons to Francisco Rodriguez. He’s almost tailor-made for the pen, and I sincerely hope the Sox keep him there; he could help this club almost immediately as an RP, but transitioning him to starter – and especially trying to do so while keeping him at AAA – seems like a Herculean task.
Edgar Martinez, 24, RHP, Portland
Big Edgar continues to make great strides in his transition from catcher to reliever. Last season, between Wilmington and Portland, He put up a combined ERA under 2 while striking out an impressive 59 batters in 52 1/3 IP; he walked 20 over the same span. To this point in the 2006 season, Martinez has improved his performance in every facet over his 05 stint with Portland; 22 K’s in 22 1/3 IP, with just 5 walks and an ERA of 1.21 show that he’s almost ready to move up. The glut of RP’s at Pawtucket is likely blocking him for the time being, but he’s among the three best RP prospects in the system (joining Craig Hansen and Manny Delcarmen), and has a chance to contribute soon – late this summer at the earliest, though more likely next season.
David Murphy, 24, OF, Portland
Many were surprised when both David Murphy and fellow OF prospect Brandon Moss were returned to Portland this season. Though neither had an electric 05, Murphy in particular had many thinking AAA with his very strong second half and his excellent performance in the Arizona Fall League. Once again, however, the Sox development team has shown they know what they’re doing with these guys; to this point in 2006, Murphy has been solid, but not worthy of a promotion just yet. The former 1st round pick is hitting .274/.320/.439 through 164 AB’s; the Sox are still waiting for his power to develop before they can see him reaching the potential he showed coming out of Baylor University in 2003.
David Pauley, 22, RHP, Portland
Pauley is one of the lesser-known members of a very strong Sox SP prospect corps, and is the de facto ace of the Portland staff in 2006. While his ceiling isn’t as high as those of Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, or Michael Bowden, Pauley has definite MLB potential, with excellent offspeed stuff complimenting a decent fastball. His K and walk rates are both solid – not eye-popping, but good enough. Both have improved this year over last, while his ERA has taken a big jump: from 3.81 in 2005, Pauley is currently posting a 2.24 ERA over 52 innings. Acquired before 2005 in the Dave Roberts trade, Pauley has already established himself as a very steady, occasionally excellent minor league pitcher; if his current success continues, the Sox will have no choice but to see what he can do in Pawtucket later this summer.