By Andrew Lipsett
In Wednesday’s column, I took a look at 6 key prospects in the high minors, examining their performance in light of their hype and history. Today I’ll do the same for the low minors – High-A Wilmington and Low-A Greenville (the NYPL Lowell Spinners’ season will not get under way until July).
The low minors hold some intriguing prospects, including some of the promising players drafted last June. With this year’s draft around the corner – I’ll preview it next week – It’s interesting to look at last year’s crop one year into their pro careers. Along with the 2005 draftees, however, there are a couple of interesting amateur FA signings, out of Latin America, who show significant promise.
Jacoby Ellsbury, 21, OF, Wilmington
Ellsbury was one of my favorite players on last year’s draft list, and I was very pleased when the Sox took him with their first pick overall. A speedy CF with an excellent batting eye, Ellsbury gets high ratings in the fundamentals – he knows the strike zone, plays superb defense, and is a terror on the basepaths. He makes solid contact, and while his power isn’t tremendously noteworthy, he’s shown more in his 10 months as a pro than was expected.
Drafted out of Oregon State, Ellsbury put his mark on the New York Penn League quickly, hitting .317/.418/.432 with a homer, 3 doubles, and 5 triples in just 139 AB’s. Ellsbury stole an exceptional 23 bases, while being caught 5 times for an 82% success rate, which is quite good. With 24 walks an 20 K’s, Ellsbury clearly showed an outstanding knowledge of the strike zone, and while his SLG was pumped up by some of those speed-induced triples, he did show somewhat more power than was initially projected. His strong showing earned him a promotion up to High-A Wilmington to begin 2006, and he has not disappointed in his new digs, hitting .321/.402/.481 over 81 AB’s. With 2 HR, 3 doubles, and 2 triples, he is showing that his power continues to develop, and while his plate discipline has taken a hit, he’s still shown excellent patience, walking 8 times while striking out 13.
Ellsbury is about as promising a prospect as there is in the Sox system right now, with Sox Prospects ranking him 4th overall, a high ranking for a low-minors prospect. Ellsbury is expected to advance quickly, and though the Sox have shown themselves to be very patient with their promotions, Ellsbury may force a move to Portland this summer. From there, he’s just a couple steps from Boston, and could be there by mid-2007.
Jed Lowrie, 21, SS, Wilmington
Lowrie, another 2005 draftee, was a star at Stanford but entered his pro career with some questions about his defense and his ability to adjust to a wooden bat. He put those concerns to rest in Lowell during the second half of 2005, hitting .328/.429/.448 with 4 HR and an impressive 12 doubles in 201 AB’s. Lowrie, like Ellsbury, has an excellent eye to go along with strong contact ability, and walked 34 times in 2005 while K’ing 30. Also like Ellsbury, Lowrie was promoted past Greenville to Wilmington to start the 2006 season; unlike Ellsbury, Lowrie struggled somewhat with the transition. In 88 AB’s before going on the DL, Lowrie hit just .227/.310/.307 with the Blue Rocks; 10 BB’s and 15 K’s suggest that he was somewhat challenged by High-A pitching. He has 5 doubles on the year, suggesting his power has translated to some degree, but only time will tell if he can adjust to the higher level of competition. Lowrie, who transitioned to SS from 2B at the start of his pro career, has been garnering praise for his defense.
Lowrie is a strong bet to overcome his initial struggles and continue to move up the Sox system. I’d expect his name to be linked with Ellsbury’s for some time; while Ellsbury strikes most as a perfect leadoff man, Lowrie looks every bit the #2 man in an order. He may develop somewhat more slowly than Ellsbury, but seeing him in Boston to start 2008 is not at all out of the question.
Clay Buccholz, 21, RHP, Greenville
2005’s supplemental 1st round picks saw the Sox pick up several interesting prospects – Jed Lowrie, along with two pitchers, Michael Bowden (below) and Clay Buccholz. Buccholz is a fascinating player – a converted OF, Buccholz has very little wear and tear on his arm for a pitcher of his age. He has excellent stuff; scouts report a fastball in the mid-90’s, complemented by two breaking pitches and a change-up that BA says is his second-best pitch. He has very good control, and walked just 9 batters in 41 innings in Lowell in 2005… while striking out 45.
In 2006, Buccholz was placed in Greenville’s impressive rotation, and has quickly become its ace. in 32 1/3 IP, Buccholz has K’d 35 while walking 9, though his 3.34 ERA is somewhat higher than the 2.61 he put up in Lowell. Still, his stuff, combined with the lack of drain on his arm, makes him a promising prospect with the potential to move quickly. The Sox have tended to be somewhat more cautious with their pitchers than their hitters, and Buccholz can likely be expected to be promoted only as far as Wilmington in 2006. There is, as it is said, No Such Thing As A Pitching Prospect, but barring injury, Buccholz has the stuff and control to move him up in the system.
Luis Soto, 20, OF, Greenville
Soto has perhaps the highest ceiling of any Sox offensive prospect, and was on course for a breakout year before being sidelined with injury early in the year. In 69 AB’s in Greenville, Soto was hitting a strong .319/.342/.478 with a homer, 6 doubles, and a triple at the time of his injury.
Soto was signed out of the DR, and started his stateside pro career with the GCL Sox at age 18, in 2004. Though raw, Soto still hit 5 HR in around 130 AB’s before moving to Lowell for the 2005 season. He put up an .808 OPS in Lowell, with 7 HR in 246 AB’s, cementing himself as a power candidate in a system with few sluggers. His brief stint with Greenville in 05 was a disappointment, but his tools and record made him a favorite of scouts, a position he has made good n so far in 2006. Soto still needs to work on his plate discipline, but his power potential is very high. He’s also very quick, though his power doesn’t make him a big base stealer. His defense gets high marks.
Soto remains very young and very raw, but he has a remarkably high ceiling. His power should allow him to advance to the high minors quickly; his injury setback was a shame, as it interrupted what could have developed into a breakout season. Due to it, he may remain with Greenville for the duration of the season.
Michael Bowden, 19, RHP, Greenville
With perhaps the most electric stuff in the Sox system, Michael Bowden is a prospect to watch very closely; a legendary high school pitcher, Bowden was drafted – along with Lowrie and Buccholz – in the supplemental 1st round and was the Sox’ highest high school pick. They brought him along slowly in 2005, giving him just 6 innings with the GCL Red Sox after he threw 80 innings (with a 0.45 ERA and 172 strikeouts!) for his high school club. This year, he has opened with Greenville on a very strict pitch count, and though his results are varied – a 4.86 ERA suggests he still needs some time, though that may be related to his short stints – his secondary numbers look excellent, with 50 K’s and just 8 walks over 37 innings. His young age means the Sox can bring him along slowly.
Chris Turner, 22, OF, Greenville
A relative unknown in the system, Turner had a breakout season for Greenville in 2005, hitting .289/.361/.515 with 11 HR over 301 AB’s. His power and discipline are both solid to excellent, though his defense in the OF is described as merely average, leading many to believe that he is a candidate to switch to 1B during his career. He was drafted out of Texarkana College, but quite early; he played his first pro game with the GCL Sox as a 19 year old. While questions still remain as to Turner’s long-term potential, he has shown that he can handle low-A competition; his power numbers so far this season are extraordinary, with 11 HR in just 177 AB’s. His BA and OBP remain suspect, at .226 and .299 respectively.
Check back next week when I’ll take a look at the upcoming draft.
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