Missner’s Manifesto: Declawing The Memphis Tigers

(Justin Ford-USA TODAY Sports)

Since writing about how much I hate college basketball polls last year, you might expect that I would have become tired of charging that particular windmill and realize that the polls aren’t going away. You would be underestimating my level of stubbornness. In fact, I have basically gone off the deep end and will lecture anyone who dares bring up these meaningless media tropes. If there is one team that symbolizes how little polls mean, particularly preseason polls, it is the Memphis Tigers. In the last five years, otherwise known as the Josh Pastner era, the Tigers have probably been rated quite highly (I have to admit that I can’t stomach to look at the polls) prior to each season then done little to show that they deserve such attention.

There are a few good reasons for the annual push to declare Memphis better than average: both Gary Parrish and Blue Ribbon Basketball are located in Memphis. Pastner recruits from McDonald’s All-Americans. However, not all McDonald’s All-Americans are created equally and the Tigers seem to get among the least impressive of the top high school batch. Players such as Joe Jackson, Adonis Thomas, and Shaq Goodwin have come to Memphis and not done much with their high ratings. Will Barton had a good season in 2011-12 (18.0 points, 8.0 rebounds), then headed for the Trail Blazer bench.

The biggest problem (until last Sunday) was that Memphis had beaten exactly nobody. My thesis was hurt when the Tigers beat Oklahoma State in the teams’ second meeting of the season. I’ll give credit to Pastner for figuring out that he should get the ball inside to Goodwin (who had 17 points after scoring 13 on five shots in the first meeting), but it also helped that Marcus Smart had a rough game and Markel Brown and Le’Bryan Nash got into foul trouble. Still, I’ll give the Tigers a bit of credit for that one.

Prior to the win over the Cowboys, it is hard to pinpoint the best win of the Pastner era. Let’s take a year-by-year look at what Memphis has done:

2009-10: In the first year after John Calipari left Memphis with its entire recruiting class, the Tigers came in second in Conference USA behind UTEP. They still fashioned a 13-3 in-conference record, but lost their only meeting against the Miners. They also played Kansas, Massachusetts, Tennessee, Syracuse, and Gonzaga – and got beat by them all. In the NIT, Memphis beat St. John’s behind 18 points and a buzzer beater from Wesley Witherspoon. They were ousted in the second round by Mississippi.

2010-11: The second year of the Pastner era ended in the NCAA tournament as the Tigers were able to win the Conference USA tournament. They finished fourth in conference play and only had to play one of the three teams ahead of them (UTEP) in the tournament. In the non-conference slate, Memphis was able to beat Miami (FL) (6-10 in the ACC) and LSU (worst team in the SEC), but again fell to Kansas, Georgetown, and Tennessee. In the first round of the NCAA tournament, the Tigers’ season ends in a loss to Arizona as a 12-seed.

2011-12: Memphis rules the Conference USA roost with a gaudy 13-3 record and they sweep through the conference tournament on their way to another first round loss in the NCAA tournament as the nine-seed against Saint Louis. The Tigers are once again fortunate in the conference tournament to stay away from Southern Miss, who had beaten them in the regular season. They also pulled off a pair of impressive wins against Tennessee (the first in double-overtime), but lost to Michigan, Georgetown (twice), and Louisville.

2012-13: The Tigers were able to beat Tennessee for the third straight time and won their first NCAA tournament game in the Pastner era by knocking off St. Mary’s as an 11-seed. They were subsequently crushed by Michigan State. In-season losses included games against VCU, Minnesota, Louisville, and Xavier. For the 2011-12 and 2012-13 seasons, ESPN provides a power index rating of opponents. The best Memphis wins of the two seasons were Miami (74.4 rating) in 11-12 and Southern Miss (71.3) in 12-13. Any team that had an 80 rating or above beat the Tigers.

What are we to make of Memphis? Obviously, they are overrated annually, but I think the dearth of signature wins has to look unkindly on coach Josh Pastner. When Memphis is tested, much like a college basketball player in the classroom, they fail every time. This is yet another dagger in the polls (particularly preseason polls). It will be interesting to see what Memphis does against American Athletic Conference competition. They have had some success when they meet a team more than once, but if I were a betting man, I wouldn’t be betting on Pastner.

Perry Missner is a college basketball enthusiast who writes for RotoWire along with several other outlets. He welcomes your comments on Twitter at @PerryMissner or via email at [email protected]