(John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports)
Each year I try to do something new with the NCAA tournament. Two years ago I recorded the CBS and ESPN Selection Sunday specials, then watched them just before the Final Four to see how the experts did with their instinctual picks. That was the year that VCU went from the First Four to the Final Four and none of the experts even mentioned them as a deep, deep sleeper. I guess that shows experts (which some people might lump me in that group) can not predict the future better than anyone else. By the way, if you want more information on how poor experts are at predicting the future, you can read the books of Nassim Nicholas Taleb, including The Black Swan.
This year my goal is something I have wanted to try for a few years. I am not going to fill out a bracket. I read about this suggestion on Mid-Majority some time back. I realize this might seem like a bad idea for a college basketball writer and fan, but I don’t think I need to fill out a bracket to enjoy the tournament. I already know that I can’t predict the future (see my pick of Missouri as the best team in the country prior to the season) and my bracket won’t be any better than anyone else’s, despite my exalted status as self-appointed Big Chief of College Basketball.
Maybe if I don’t feel bad about my upset pick going wrong on Thursday morning, I’ll enjoy the tournament even more. I realize picking brackets is its own cottage industry and that the NCAA tournament brackets bring the casual fan to college hoops. However, I think I have already spelled out my feelings about casual fans. Don’t get me wrong, I am glad that college basketball gets its place in the sun, but I don’t think the sport needs to worry about casual fans from November to February.
I will lose out on the feeling of picking a first round upset like I did with Siena over Vanderbilt a couple of years ago (see, I still remember!), but I think that will be offset by the sadness of getting my bracket killed in the first day or two. I may not root for “my teams” as much, but as a college basketball fan without a team, that is not a big deal. I watch most games without a rooting interest.
Lastly, I have always had the feeling if everyone is doing something, there must be something wrong with it. People do things without thinking much about them and filling out brackets may be one of those things. No one fills out a bracket for any of the other playoffs. Granted, no other sport has a tournament as compelling as the NCAA tournament with its one-and-done format. Various people and websites have tried to get different brackets together, but I find Grantland’s efforts at brackets to be annoying.
In any case, I didn’t want to leave you without some predictions on the tournament. Were I to fill out a bracket, I’d make the final Kansas and Indiana. I know Indiana lost to Minnesota and Ohio State in the past ten days, but they are a deep team that can defend. I’d love to see how they match up against Kansas. The Victor Odalipo-Ben McLemore would be an interesting matchup that we could see in the NBA next year. I’d also like to see Michigan State and Miami (FL) meet because they are similar teams with a lot of size. Other than that, I hope you get all of your brackets correct and best of luck. I won’t be joining you.
Perry Missner is a college basketball enthusiast who writes for RotoWire along with several other fantasy outlets. He welcomes your comments on Twitter at @PerryMissner or via email at [email protected]
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