There are certain topics that I tend to write about every year. While they contain my opinion, each year the opinion gets cemented in my mind to a greater degree. At this point, someone would have to provide hard evidence that my opinion is not correct and I have yet to hear of anyone who has brought good examples of players who return to college that improve their draft stock. It simply doesn’t happen. Yet, each year, you will see college and pro basketball writers say that a player made a good decision by returning to school. What this means is that the player is not good enough to be in the NBA, so they might as well stay in college.
Now, there are a few examples that run counter to my argument. For example, if a player does not get sufficient playing time (there are better or more experienced players ahead of them on the team), then they may not be able to show off their wares to NBA scouts and executives. However, even if a player doesn’t get playing time, they are often drafted on potential. For example, Marvin Williams only played 22 minutes off the bench as a freshman on the championship Tar Heel team in 2004, but that was enough for the Atlanta Hawks to draft him second (over Chris Paul and Deron Williams). More recently, Dion Waiters came off the bench for Syracuse, but he played starter’s minutes and was drafted fourth. Bismack Biyombo did not play in college, but was drafted almost completely on his performance in a handful of games against top US high school players.
I am also not saying that college is not a good thing. For the vast majority of NCAA players, an essentially free education is great. This is supposing that they have time to take advantage of the classes when they aren’t at practice or playing in games, which is something that causes me skepticism. For most players, going pro isn’t a consideration, but if a basketball player has the possibility of being drafted, then going back to school is a dunderheaded decision.
Take the recent example of C.J. McCollum. While we don’t know exactly where he would have been drafted in the 2012 draft, he has a lot of skills desirable by the NBA. He is tall, can score, can handle the ball, and has played well in big games (he scored 30 in the win over Duke in last year’s tournament). However, McCollum broke his foot against VCU on Jan. 5 and will likely not play for the Mountain Hawks again. I think there is a strong chance that McCollum would have been drafted in the first round last year and he still may be a first round pick despite the injury. He could have been playing in the NBA already. His stated reason for returning to school was to get his degree in journalism. Can’t a player go back to school after they’ve gone pro? Of course they can, but they won’t be able to play on the basketball team.
The truth is that the best basketball players don’t need college. The fact that the NBA forces them into a year of college is just wrong. I expected more people to follow the path of Brandon Jennings, who spent a year in Italy after his high school career. He did have some problems qualifying academically for school, but his year abroad hasn’t hurt his NBA career in any meaningful way. The best musicians and artists don’t have to go to college, so why should the best basketball players?
Every year, there is a list of players who apply for the draft, then withdraw after they are told they will not be drafted at a position of their liking. New rules have shaved this list down to a minimum and there was only one player in 2012 who applied for the draft, then returned to school: Raymond Taylor, a 5-6 guard, who transferred from Florida Atlantic to spend a year with Richard Pitino Jr. at Florida International in 2013-14. Take a look at this list from 2011 and let me know if you see any players who improved their draft stock. Only Terrence Jones was drafted in the first round and he fell to 18th. He was among four celebrated freshmen who returned to school in 2012. The others were Perry Jones III, Jared Sullinger, and Harrison Barnes. All ended up being picked in the first round, but no one would argue that they improved their draft stock by remaining in school. In terms of Jones and Sullinger, both fell to the 20s after their sophomore seasons failed to measure up to their first year in school. You can look at past lists (such as 2010, 2009, and 2008) for other players. The only example may be Jimmer Fredette, who according to Wikipedia was “was expected to be picked 25th to 30th” in the 2010 draft, but rose to 10th in the 2011 draft. Jimmer runs counter to everything!
Here is what I will ask of you: If you can think of a player who clearly improved his draft stock by staying in school (other than Jimmer), please mention his name in the comments below. If you can’t and you hear a “basketball expert” mention what a good decision a player made by returning to school, just do what I do: roll your eyes, sigh unrepentantly, and know that it is just the usual nonsense that is being passed from one generation to the next.
Perry Missner is a college basketball enthusiast who writes for RotoWire along with several other fantasy outlets. He welcomes your comments on Twitter at @PerryMissner or via email at [email protected]
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