Missner's Manifesto is a regular feature on The Hoops Manifesto where our main man Perry Missner pontificates on the hoops world as he sees it. Next up: I Hate Polls
Last year, Jeff Fox (Mr. Hoops Manifesto himself) asked me to join an esteemed panel of college basketball writers to provide a biweekly college basketball poll. While I was honored and quickly accepted the invitation (just as I have for my own line of Manifesto scribbling this year), I had to swallow my feelings about polls in general to participate. I hate polls. I think they are meaningless and basically a way to provide self-sustaining media hype for college basketball. As the Wikipedia article on the NCAA basketball poll notes, “the AP Poll is largely just a tool to compare schools throughout the season and spark [empty] debate, as it has no bearing on postseason play.” (The bracketed word is mine.)
One thing I did not comment on last week was the way polls are used in college football. They are quite important because the variety of polls have some bearing on the BCS standings, so they help determine who is allowed to compete for the college football championship. I don’t really care that the BCS excludes the small schools (which is another slight problem with college football) or that there is a nonsensical six-week break between the end of the season. The fact that the polls have any bearing on anything drives me up the wall.
I think there are two main reasons why I dislike the polls. First, they are not terribly representative of overall quality of teams. The preseason polls, in particular, are unhelpful because they are principally based on teams that have returning players. Second, the polls generate the term upset over and over again, even though an unranked team is playing at home and may be better than the rated team. On the first point, I know that some college basketball enthusiasts watch 10 games per night, but even they are missing out on a lot of action. By piecing together bits of games gleaned via SportsCenter, can an AP voter really say which team is better than the others and properly rate 25 teams? I know last year I sometimes had trouble rating four. I also think that teams that play well in a tough road game should not be penalized.
For example, Ohio State gave Duke everything they could handle at Cameron a little over a week ago. The Buckeyes lost and probably fell in the polls (I have to admit that my disgust with polls prevents me from even looking at them). When a road team like Ohio State plays well on the road, but loses a close game, I do not think they should be dropped. I don’t even like the fact that Blue Ribbon College Basketball Yearbook puts its top 25 at the beginning of the book because those teams get increased coverage. A true reference work would keep the teams with their conferences (but that is just a slight complaint about Blue Ribbon, which is my right hand when it comes to college basketball players, especially from small schools).
As for the term upset, it has upset other people as well. The AP blindly calls any top 25 team losing to a lesser ranked or unranked team an upset. However, these losses are not all that often upsets, especially when a team is playing on the road. Winning on the road is difficult mainly because referees succumb to a slight bias (as shown in the book Scorecasting by Jon Wertheim and Tobias Moskowitz – overall, I wouldn't recommend the book, but there was one interesting section on the effect of home field/court) as well as the usual problems with travel. I think a home team winning should only be called an upset in rare cases like Chaminade. The RPI rating takes the home-road split into account, but it is also flawed.
Another thing that bugs me is the cottage industry of college basketball writers who examine the votes of other writers, then make fun of them. It just shows that the AP voters don’t necessarily know what they are writing about, yet their word is taken as gospel. Sports writers each have their biases (like putting Memphis in the top 25 before each season), but it is just more empty talk. I also don’t like when teams fall out of the polls early in the season, then blame the national media for putting too much pressure on them (otherwise known as the Harrison Barnes defense).
I know – I am just full of complaints. By the way, I don’t criticize the polls because I think I could do better myself. They just have no compelling reason to exist other than for something to talk about. If pro sports have anything on college sports, it is that they do not rely on writers or coaches to provide rankings. Many writers and websites have their own polls and rankings, but no one takes them all that seriously, unlike the college basketball polls. This makes sense because people can watch the games and make up their own minds. There is also a playoff at the end of the season to determine the champion. Wait a minute, college basketball has that too!
Perry Missner hates polls. He does appreciate you reading and giving your thoughts at [email protected] or @PerryMissner on Twitter.
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