Things will change on a weekly basis until we get to the dog days of summer when we can truly recognize flukes from talent. We’ve seen hot streaks from the Yankees, Royals and Rangers, which have boosted them to the upper echelon, with recent struggles from other teams, sending them careening down the rankings. It’s the first month still, but there are a potential eleven teams that I have with legit chances at the Championship. That number will have drastically shifted by September, but as of right now, these are my power rankings for Week 4.
Contenders
Atlanta Braves
No Kris Medlen? No Brandon Beachy? No Mike Minor? No problem. Missing their top three starters, this team’s starters have pitched better than anyone could have guessed. Aaron Harang fired a no-hitter through 7 innings last weekend. Earvin Santana has been worth the gamble that many teams passed on. David Hale has the highest ERA of the five current starters on the depth chart at 2.93. Alex Wood went has thrown 18 innings his past two starts with two earned runs… Both of which were losses. It’s impossible to pitch this well over the course of a season, and, even thru Jason Heyward’s and BJ Upton’s continued struggles, this team is one of the best in the league right now. The Real (And Early)
Milwaukee Brewers
Carlos Gomez was suspended, and, while that may hurt the team for the three games he’ll miss, they can still lay claim to first place in the National League Central as of now. With three playoff teams from 2013 breathing down their neck, however, this team will have to keep this pace to assure themselves a postseason appearance. While the offense can carry this team to October, I still have doubts about the pitching holding up for 162 games.
Oakland Athletics
Josh Donaldson has been one of the hottest hitters over the course of the first month of the season, and, led by Sonny Gray and the emergence of veteran reliever-turned-starter Jesse Chavez, their pitching looks as dominant as ever. They’re second in the league in ERA, yet middle of the pack in team strikeouts. They continuously find ways to win, despite injuries and boasting zero star power. If I asked every reader to name one member of the Oakland Athletics, I have no doubts the unanimous winner would be Billy Beane.
Texas Rangers
Shin-Soo Choo has played well of recent, and Prince Fielder will find his stride in Arlington, but when your Opening Day starter is Tanner Scheppers, I can’t find room any higher than this in the rankings for the Rangers, even if Yu Darvish has since returned. They need Derek Holland, who shouldn’t be much longer, to solidify an already very weak rotation. Their offense if one of the best in the league, but pitching wins in the playoffs. This team has to still be considered a threat, but the pitching needs help.
San Francisco Giants
On paper, their pitching should be able to console for a weak offense, but it’s quite the contrary. Brandon Belt and Angel Pagan are playing superbly, with Michael Morse and Buster Posey doing what is expected of them, but Hunter Pence needs to pull his weight. Matt Cain and Madison Bumgarner have pitched very well recently, and Tim Hudson was a brilliant pickup, but Tim Lincecum and Ryan Vogelsong need to find their stride to compete in the NL West throughout the entire regular season.
New York Yankees
I’ll admit… This Masahiro Tanaka guy is legit. I was wrong. After seeing him dice up the Red Sox and continue to post high strikeout rates, all the while keeping a very solid ERA, he has to be considered a legit Cy Young candidate. Jacoby Ellsbury is playing like an MVP once again and Carlos Beltran is heating up. The money seems to be well spent this offseason, although I’m very skeptical of an infield where Brian Roberts is expected to supply valuable at-bats at second base, Yangervis Solarte is the starting third baseman and Kelly Johnson is the best first baseman on the roster. To make things worse, Ivan Nova underwent Tommy John surgery and Michael Pineda was caught again with pine tar on his neck and has been suspended for two scheduled starts.
St. Louis Cardinals
The pitching has been awesome, as usual, led by Adam Wainwright. Michael Wacha is the real deal and Shelby Miller has bounced back from an early rough patch. Carlos Martinez will soon be joining the rotation, Yadier Molina is on currently on a 12-game hit streak and with any sort of contribution further from Matt Holliday, Jhonny Peralta, Allen Craig or Matt Carpenter, this team could be considered favorites for the World Series.
Los Angeles Dodgers
This team, even with all the star power on the field and in the front office, may be flying under the radar right now. Their hottest hitter may also be their weakest in Dee Gordon, who has posted an average above .350 already. Their star-studded outfield has not played well, although rebounds from Carl Crawford and Matt Kemp are to be expected. Hopes are Yasiel Puig can avoid a sophomore slump and Clayton Kershaw will fortify an already dominant rotation, as Josh Beckett, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Dan Haren and Zack Greinke all boast an ERA below 3.00.
Detroit Tigers
Justin Verlander, after having earned the Spring Training Cy Young award, has yet to allow more than two earned runs in any start, while Max Scherzer is keeping pace. Rick Porcello has pitched well in the 4 slot for Doug Fister, but Miguel Cabrera is not playing like Miguel Cabrera. Nick Castellanos is filling in well at third base, and Ian Kinsler is proving the Tigers won the Kinsler/Fielder swap in the offseason. The bullpen, similar to last year, is a very real concern. Joe Nathan, Al Albuquerque, Joba Chamberlain and Phil Coke are all capable of blowing leads for the dominant starters.
Kansas City Royals
This team has hit nine homeruns all year. NINE. That’s three fewer than second worst. Yet, their team batting average is in the top ten. I don’t try to understand, I just rank them. James Shields, Jason Vargas and Yordano Ventura are all tossing an ERA well below 2.00 and their bullpen is very solid. This team can absolutely compete in the AL Central, but their offense has to find a groove. Mike Moustakas, after having a terrific spring training has to be better, while Salvador Perez has to find his stroke again, following a hot start to the season. Don’t write this team off just yet.
Washington Nationals
This team is interesting. Bryce Harper is developing better than any prospect his age can expect, but has Mike Trout overshadowing him. Stephen Strasburg is overrated, but his pitching below his standards. Jordan Zimmermann isn’t pitching as well as he’d expect either, but surprising starts from Anthony Rendon and Adam LaRoche, along with one of the best bullpens in the league, has this team right in the thick of things. If their offense can improve slightly and Doug Fister returns soon, this team can expect to be in the hunt in October.
The “Not Quite There” Teams
Toronto Blue Jays
Led by Jose Bautista, the Blue Jay offense is outstanding. Bringing back Jose Reyes from his Opening Day injury is huge for this team, while it seems Edwin Encarnacion may have started heating up. The team above the border is faltering because of a pitching staff that has one of the worst team ERA’s in the league, while allowing the second most walks. Their batting average against is actually pretty impressive, ranking in the top six, but the base on balls’ are killing them. Brandon Morrow has been awful and RA Dickey is not resembling the Cy Young winner from two years ago.
Baltimore Orioles
Covered last week, the offense is killer when they’re on. They have anywhere from five to six very dangerous hitters in their lineup on a daily basis. But, like the rest of the AL East, their pitching is underwhelming. They only have seven quality starts, which is second worst, only to the lowly Diamondbacks, and they’re not going deep into games, having the fourth lowest amount of innings pitched from its starters. With no boda fide ace, (unless Ubaldo Jimenez can find anything resembling the man that was lights out the second half of 2013), this team could be looking at a last place finish in the East come September.
Los Angeles Angels
I would hate to jinx anything… But Albert Pujols might be back. And if he his, and Josh Hamilton returns hitting like he did the first few weeks, this offense may be able to carry a very lackluster pitching staff, (excluding CJ Wilson, who has been fairly adequate). Their main offensive acquisition, David Freese, has been awful. Even though Ian Stewart hasn’t been much better, he may be soon taking over the starting third baseman gig if Freese doesn’t start producing in an offense that is thriving under Pujols’ guidance and Trout’s excitability.
Colorado Rockies
If Troy Tulowitzki could stay healthy, he, (along with Mike Trout), would be considered the best in the game. He’s batting .360 with five homeruns and 17 RBI. The scariest part, however, is none of those stats lead his team. Charlie Blackmon is batting near .400 with five homeruns, while Justin Morneau has 19 RBI. Carlos Gonzalez hasn’t even starting hitting particularly well yet. The offense is, arguably, the best in the league. As good as their lineup is, their pitching is the exact opposite. Jordan Lyles is the only starter pitching with an ERA near 3.00, with others hovering above 5.00 and Jorge de la Rose above 6.50. They could win the division if they could get Peyton Manning and Ty Lawson to pitch for them.
Pittsburgh Pirates
Losing Jason Grilli hurts, but the bullpen has been one of the best for the past few seasons; they’ll find a way to patch things up and Mark Melancon filled in admirably last year as the de facto closer while Grilli missed time with a different injury. With all the potential Ike Davis possesses, a coaching staff like the Pirates have could be exactly what he needs. Neil Walker is hitting for power, as is Pedro Alvarez, (although he is flashing glimpses of Adam Dunn material), and Andrew McCutchen is playing well, but outside of this trio, runs may be hard to come by. Starling Marte is suffering a sophomore slump and their pitching is having too much pressure put onto it.
Tampa Bay Rays
A sexy World Series pick by many, it’s a shame the injury bug has decided to make a prolonged stay in Tampa. Alex Cobb is out until late May, Matt Moore is out for the season and Jeremy Hellickson is still hurt. David Price can only pitch once every five days. To no surprise to any casual baseball fan, the defense is the best in the league, as Manager Joe Maddon’s shifts are customary and expected. Evan Longoria is a stud, James Loney is thriving and Ben Zobrist is exceptional at every facet of baseball, but with the Rays having to rely on Jake Odorizzi, Erik Bedard and Cesar Ramos for innings until their other starters return, I don’t like their chances.
The “Dangerous, Underperforming Teams”
Cincinnati Reds
Although the Reds have one of the most hitter friendly parks in the league, their pitching is what is keeping them in the thick of things in the NL Central. Led by Johnny Cueto and Tony Cingrani, their pitching is a top ten staff. Mat Latos has yet to pitch and Homer Bailey hasn’t been pitching well, but when these two come back to stabilize a rotation plugged with temporary holes, they could see some postseason action. Joey Votto is still among the best in the game at getting on base and Billy Hamilton has been hitting better, but is still batting well below .230. If Jay Bruce can rebound and Brandon Phillips can start finding RBI opportunities, they could easily climb these rankings.
Boston Red Sox
Jon Lester and Jake Peavy have pitched extremely well this year, and John Lackey has been doing John Lackey things. Clay Buchholz has yet to flash anything resembling the pitcher that started 11-0 with a sub 2.0 ERA last year, and they’ll need him to compete in a very difficult AL East. Their offense hasn’t been anything special, although Mike Napoli still has an average above .300. David Ortiz has five homeruns and Xander Bogaerts is filling in nicely for the departed Stephen Drew, but Dustin Pedroia has yet to go yard and Grady Sizemore is starting to look like he hasn’t played for two years… A World Series repeat is looking more and more dim with each coming loss.
The “Not Their Year” Teams
New York Mets
This team seems to be doing just enough to win. Granted, their hovering around .500, but their offense is putrid. Even David Wright isn’t hitting like David Wright, although this is the exact Curtis Granderson many expected the Mets to have brought aboard. Hitting less than .150 with a single home run, he could be in danger of losing his starting spot in the outfield. The pitching is in the middle of the pack when it comes to ERA, but a top tier team in quality starts. This is a sign they’re getting lucky and they’re record in close games is better than what it should be. Expect this team to fall off sooner than later.
Minnesota Twins
If I told you Joe Mauer had six RBI’s on the young season, the second best pitcher on their staff was Phil Hughes with a 5.14 ERA and Chris Colabello was their best hitter prior to the season, would you think the Twins would be above .500? They’re actually only a game behind the Tigers for the division lead. Colabello is leading the second in the league in RBI’s, while Brian Dozier is second in the AL in homeruns. However, their pitching is the worst in the league. If they can find a few quality arms in the offseason, along with Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano revitalizing the offense, this team could actually be a World Series contender come 2015.
Chicago White Sox
Jose Abreu could be this season’s version of Yasiel Puig, but in a far less media-driven market in Chicago. Leading the entire league in homeruns and second in the league in RBI’s, he is the lynchpin in the offense. Dayan Viciedo is leading the American League in batting average and Alexei Ramirez isn’t far behind. The pitching, however, is killing this team. The crew has an ERA of 5.00 on the season, and, without Chris Sale, that number will only increase. Jose Quintana, John Danks, Erik Johnson and Anthony Rienzo are what is holding this team back from competing this season. If they’re still in contention at the tradeline, (a big if), they could be buyers. Don’t expect it, but it is a possibility.
The “They Are Who We Thought They Were” Teams
Philadelphia Phillies
Cole Hamels returned and pitching better than expected against a tough Dodger lineup in his first professional start of 2014. This team will not compete in a loaded NL East division, however. The Atlanta Braves are playing way too well, the Washington Nationals are far too talented and even the New York Mets are playing winning baseball. This team’s window closed two years ago. General Manager Ruben Amaro, Jr. fails to recognize this, however, and finishing the season with 80 wins would be a huge success. If they fall out of contention, Cliff Lee, Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins and maybe even Hamels could be on the move, as the inevitable youth movement in Philadelphia is close to becoming a reality.
San Diego Padres
Josh Johnson hit the disabled list for the first time in his career, (wait, this isn’t his first?), which will hurt an already hurting rotation. Andrew Cashner is a stud, although the Cy Young talk last week may have been a bit premature. Chase Headley is non-existent, although a change of scenery could do him miracles. He is a free agent after this season, and, if this season is any indication, the Padres may not be inclined to bring him back on a multi-year contract. Everth Cabrera is still very solid as a leadoff man, but Jedd Gyorko has fallen off the map also. This team is looking at another last-place finish out West.
Miami Marlins
Giancarlo Stanton is pacing this team, although he is hardly doing it by himself. The lineup, although lacking in the slugger department, is producing far above expectations. Marcell Ozuna and Christian Yelich round out a very solid, young outfield, and, although he has cooled off a bit, Casey McGehee is still notching up his RBI totals. Still, if the Marlins are to sniff contention past the All-Star Break, their pitching is what is going to keep them competitive. Jose Fernandez could be the best pitcher in the Majors, while Henderson Alvarez, Tom Koehler and Nate Eovaldi are no walk in the park either.
Cleveland Indians
The Indians don’t do anything superb, yet they don’t do anything terrible. They are close to the league lead in total errors, but their pitching and hitting all remains in the middle of the pack. Danny Salazar has been a disappointment and Trevor Bauer may try to recoup a spot in the rotation after his brief stay on the DL and in the minors for some fine tuning, but the question marks don’t stop there. Just in Masterson is dealing with an ERA around 4.5, Carlos Santana at third base has led to a dismal .122 batting average, Jason Kipnis is not producing like a top-five second baseman anymore, and Michael Bourn forgot how to steal bases, the only thing he was brought in to do. You had one job, Michael!
Seattle Mariners
Kyle Seager is starting to bounce back after a lackluster few weeks, although the team has been in a deep rut for quite some time. Even Felix Hernandez hasn’t been the lights-out, dominant ace in his last two starts that we’ve come to expect. He’s still pitching phenomenally, just not on par with his usual numbers. Outside of Robinson Cano and his albatross contract, the Mariners are going to struggle to find a run producer. Taijuan Walker had a setback in his recent comeback campaign, but should see Major League action in a few weeks, while James Paxton and Hisashi Iwakuma could be back around the same time.
The “Excited For Prospects” Teams
Houston Astros
To be perfectly blunt, this team is terrible. The future, however, is among the brightest in the league. Jose Altuve is a decent building block, while George Springer was called up this week. Outside of those two, it’s hard to imagine any player being on the team beyond this year, let alone any Major League roster. Dexter Fowler was brought in as a stop-gap until their younger players are ready to compete and he has done exactly what was expected of him: to fill up space. Collin McHugh made his debut with the Astros Sunday with a two-hitter against Oakland. Hopefully this is a sign of good things to come… but I don’t expect it to be.
Arizona Diamondbacks
I may have been too hard on the Diamondbacks last week, so they move up a spot this week. They have played the Dodgers eight times this year and have come away victorious once. They have only been swept once (if you discount the two-game teaser in Australia), and their lineup isn’t as awful as it may seem. Mark Trumbo just went on the disabled list which hurts, but he shouldn’t expect to miss too much time. Paul Goldschmidt is a star. Martin Prado is on par with his career numbers. Chris Owings and AJ Pollock are decent enough. But the pitching… If it gives you any idea, Bronson Arroyo was brought in to stabilize a young pitching staff, while also adding a veteran presence. He has an ERA above 7.50. So… Yeah.
Chicago Cubs
Starlin Castro, Anthony Rizzo and maybe Emilio Bonifacio are solid foundation pieces. Other than that, this team has no long-term plans on its Major League roster. They are biding time until their minor leaguers are ready. As bad as the pitching is, the hitting is far worse. Jeff Samardzija has a 1.53 ERA. He’s 0-2. That should tell you all you need to know. However, if you’d enjoy more proof: 28th in runs, 26th in total hits, 28th in total bases, 25th in batting average, 27th in on-base percentage and 27th in slugging percentage. It’s a good thing the Iowa Cubs are loaded with offensive talent, and that Samardzija will return a healthy sum at the trade deadline, but as of right now, this is the worst team in baseball. This is, however, not to say Theo Epstein doesn’t have a plan.
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