Curveball
Most Valuable: Zack Greinke (4.65)
Least Valuable: Matthew Boyd (-4.07)
Zack Greinke had a solid 2018 season, compiling 2.9 fWAR with a 3.21 ERA in 207.2 innings. He’s just hit another level in 108 innings this season, though, as he’s posted a 3.08 ERA with a 2.4 fWAR thus far. His curveball usage has been virtually identical over the past two-plus seasons (13.3% in ’17, 13.4% in ’18 and ’19), but the pitch value has exponentially gone up (1.67 to 2.47 to 4.65).
Opposing hitters have put together a .380 OPS and 7 (!) wRC+ against this pitch. What’s been helpful has been a huge shift in line-drive rate (27.4% in ’18 to 16.2% in ’19) and ground-ball rate (37.0% in ’18 to 51.4% in ’19).
Boyd is in the midst of a breakout season for the Detroit Tigers. He’s already set a new career-high mark for fWAR (2.6), while his strikeout rate is on pace to make yet another substantial jump (18.2% in ’17, 22.4% in ’18, 30.1% in ’19). He hasn’t done this with his curveball, which has noticeably gone down in usage (18.0% in ’17, 12.3% in ’18, 5.0% in ’19). That difference has gone to his slider, which jumped 20 percentage points in usage between ’17 and ’18, and has increased again to 35.8% at the moment.
Honorable Mentions: German Marquez (3.09), Charlie Morton (2.81), Trevor Richards (-3.19), Lucas Giolito (-2.76)
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