Free agent forward-center Greg Monroe left the Detroit Pistons in search of a new home this offseason. He didn’t go to New York or Los Angeles or any other team with cash to burn. The news was equally parts exciting for small market teams and legitimate interest in the Monroe fit with the Bucks.
The first thing to consider is the contract itself. Monroe, as a player, could end up as a big piece of the Milwaukee future or he could be a bust. A lot of that is based on his production, but also on the relative value of the money and length of the contract in question. We live in an age of a rapidly increasing salary cap, something we haven’t seen before in the major American sports, particularly a sport where such a significant amount of money is divided among so few players on each team.
But even large contracts, many reaching close to what is currently a “max” deal, should decrease the share of the cap room that they occupy by five-percent or more within the next two years after major increases to the salary cap are introduced.
Monroe’s contract is “just” three years, the third being a player option, which is a “max” deal that averages just over $16.6 million over the next three years, assuming Monroe picks up his player option on the final year. This, my friends, is a good contract. For reference, have you heard of the athlete named Carlos Boozer? Well, Boozer was a “15-and-9” guy who never really existed on defense and put more effort into screaming “And one!” after every shot for the Chicago Bulls for several years before being amnestied, than anything else he did on the court. He was the master of YMCA-level hustle, hitting bloated jumpers. That player just played out the last year of his Chicago contract as a member of the Los Angeles Lakers. His salary – $16 million.
The point is this: the Bucks paid about market value for a guy who plays a position where they could really use a jump start. Plus, the contract is just three years with a player option on the final year, so if this marriage isn’t meant to last, he could be gone around the time Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jabari Parker are just hitting their stride, leaving the Bucks with $16.6-ish million to play with on top of a salary cap that will dwarf what we have now.
On the court, this should be a huge boost for the Bucks. Milwaukee pushed into the playoffs last year, most of it without rookie mega-prospect Jabari Parker. They were able to disrupt the burned-out Bulls long enough to squeeze out a few extra quarters of playoff basketball before their season ended. They may have bowed out of the playoffs as expected, but they gave fans and critics great reason to believe that this team is just beginning their upward arc. They pushed well above their win expectancy by playing stifling defense, driven by their renowned length at all five positions, with the ability to cut off passing lanes and create general mayhem by having a ball of arms and legs like Antetokounmpo using his athletic ability to match up with opposing guards who give up between four and eight inches of height and length to the youngster.
Offense was another story for the Bucks last year. The team seems to be caught between developing shooters and working a more traditional, old-school style of basketball. Milwaukee traded for Michael Carter-Williams last season, bringing in a young guard with high upside but little skill to shoot the ball from the perimeter. By winning the signature of Monroe, the Bucks have added a center that shoots almost exclusively within a close proximity to the basket, rarely venturing beyond five feet from the hoop.
The Bucks need a player like Monroe in the paint to help spark their offense. It would be fair to question the spacing and impact of offensive philosophy by adding a big man who scored almost as much last season out of the post as the entire Bucks team. The other possibility is that Monroe is going to draw double-team attention and be able to hold the ball either up top or down low while the team is in motion. This would open things up dramatically for Milwaukee’s offense. Carter-Williams needs to drastically improve his shooting to help the Bucks and his numbers tell a story of how working with Monroe could give him the opportunity that he needs.
Carter-Williams performs at his best shooting in fairly typical circumstances: touches the ball less than two seconds, is six-plus feet open, on zero dribbles. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Bucks offense, in part, tries to bring MCW along on his shooting by trying to getting him open looks that could come from teams bringing help on Monroe. This may, or may not, be something Milwaukee looks to expand on, and it would probably benefit MCW, but there are other issues to consider.
Monroe can work well out of the post, but a major concern for pretty much anyone who has ever cheered for the Bucks longer than two seconds is the impact this has on the development of Parker. Monroe is a pretty piece that cost them a pretty penny. It was a major score for the small market heroes, but how Coach Jason Kidd plans to implement the very traditional skills of their newly acquired center while keeping Parker on track to be the long-term franchise star will be something to watch in the lead up to the season.
Milwaukee hit .500 last season featuring Miles Plumlee (19 games), John Henson (67 games), Larry Sanders (27 games), and Zaza Pachulia (73 games) at center. Larry Sanders, formerly the best defensive center in the league, realized that basketball didn’t make him happy and reached a buyout with Milwaukee early in the 2014-15 campaign. This is nothing but good for Sanders and his well-being as a human will always trump what he meant as a piece of the Bucks puzzle. Just the same, he was very talented and even in a frustrating and short final year with the Bucks, he averaged 12.0 points to go along with his suffocating defensive presence. Plumlee was with Milwaukee even fewer games than Sanders and averaged 3.2 points and 1.5 rebounds in 9.9 minutes per game. The two post-Sanders pieces that helped carry the Bucks interior to the playoffs were Henson and Pachulia. In 18.3 minutes, Henson average 7.0 points and 4.7 rebounds per game; Pachulia was good for 8.2 points and 6.8 rebounds per contest. Compare those two contributions to Monroe, 15.9 points and 10.2 rebounds and 2.1 assists. Pachulia pulled a lot of touches for the Bucks last year, Monroe is at the very least equally talented in handling the ball.
The upgrade for Milwaukee is real. The upward trajectory of the franchise is real. The Bucks should expect to improve on last year’s results, pushing above .500 and higher into the Eastern Conference playoff seeding. The Bulls have done little to change or improve their team so far this offseason leaving the Cavaliers as the only team in their division who seems to be out of reach. The Bucks are well-positioned to challenge Chicago in the Central Division pecking order and the Bulls were the number three seed in the East last season. With another year under Coach Kidd and a full, healthy season from the whole roster, Milwaukee has a real chance to secure home-court advantage in the playoffs this season.
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