Like many, the second the schedule comes out I go through counting wins and losses. And like many, I either find myself with a runaway playoff team or a prodigious loser (amazing how few of us see a schedule from year to year and manage to find the middle truth of 7-9/8-8). This year I … didn’t. Don’t ask me why, maybe years of missing the mark wore on me. Or perhaps it’s because you can’t count on who’ll be bad, and who’ll be good. We don’t know the surprise teams yet, and we also don’t know the surprise failures, but we do know they’ll happen. They always do. However, there’s a section of the schedule this season that scares the living daylights out of me – a five game stretch right near the beginning of the season that’s going to define who the 2016 Saints are, for better or for worse. Let’s borrow a phrase from baseball and call it Murderer’s Row, because right now all I see is five monsters holding bats, chains and knives. I’m going to grade these match-ups by what I’m thinking the mood will be, as well as what I perceive the degree of difficulty (out of 100, 100 being the hardest).
October 16, vs Panthers: It starts when the Saints host the Panthers. Put aside all the Luke McCown love from last year, and how “close” we played the Panthers in two games … fact of the matter is it was a season sweep and they’re the defending NFC Champs. They haven’t gotten any worse during the recent free agency period (note, as of publication Josh Norman’s franchise tag was rescinded and Norman is expected to sign elsewhere), and they should be BETTER on offense as Kelvin Benjamin returns.
- DEGREE OF DIFFICULTY: high 80s | GRADE: DOABLE. God I hate Carolina. If we start off well, this game could go far into determining 2016. If this game goes poorly, however … well, read on. You’ll see.
October 23, @ Chiefs: On the surface, you look at this game and say eh so what. Well I’ll tell you what – this is a road game vs a solid playoff team in the middle of two hafta have games against NFC rivals.
- DEGREE OF DIFFICULTY: high 70s | GRADE: TROUBLE. I loathe games like this. I could see the Saints pulling off the win against Carolina only to get quietly choked out against the Chiefs with the Seahawks coming to town.
October 30, vs Seahawks: Yep, and then this. How did these two teams suddenly create so much history between each other in such a short period of time? This went from nothing to a nasty little rivalry in no time flat, and the Seahawks have been enjoying every minute of it. They have the Saints number of late, and joining the party will be home comings for Jimmy Graham and Brandon Browner (side note: PLEASE give Browner tons of playing time). I hate seeing this matchup on their schedule so damn much, and perhaps my only solace is it’s not on MNF so I don’t have to hear Gruden extolling everything the Seahawks do.
- DEGREE OF DIFFICULTY: low 90s | GRADE: Potential season killer. If they lose all three of these games, it’s gonna be bad, because while you might disagree, it’s about to get worse.
November 6, @ 49ers: I can hear you laughing. “Brian, how in the world are you worried about that mess in San Francisco?! That’s the biggest break on the schedule!” … well I’ll tell you how. San Francisco, California has historically been a house of horrors for the Saints. This is a place where they set the record for largest blown lead. Where Rickey Jackson finished his career. Where Alex Smith became an actual big game quarterback (if only for a moment). San Francisco will be bad next year, I will give you that. But how bad? Their defense remained strong throughout the turmoil last year and will likely get stronger after the draft. We have no idea who their QB will be either. If it’s a rookie, it’s a huge x factor. If it’s Kaepernick, I’ll just refer you to the backbreaker at the Dome two short seasons ago and sit quietly until you get pissed again. If it’s Gabbert … well, the defense is still really good! SF is laden with question marks and for me, on the road, following the Seahawks and right before Denver, this is some awful, awful timing.
- DEGREE OF DIFFICULTY: high 60s | GRADE: MUST WIN. I don’t care what’s happened up until now, save rolling into ‘Frisco undefeated, this is must win. You can’t have this be the game that ends your winning streak after conquering so many badass teams, and you certainly can’t continue a losing streak here. If a Seahawks loss is a potential season killer, a loss at SF would be a bugle playing Tapps.
November 14, vs Broncos: This game is a lot like the Panthers game at the beginning of the row … loaded with potential, packed with peril. As I write this, we have no idea who Denver’s starting QB is going to be, and I’m not sure they do either. This is the primary example of a team you see on the schedule that is supposed to be good and could prove to be the exact opposite. I love that it’s a home game – the last outing in Denver was one we’d all like to forget. And I love it might be Mark Sanchez at the helm, likely already getting pressure on Kubiak to yank him. And that’s about all I love. Denver is a matchup nightmare for New Orleans under most other circumstances, from a defense that will hound the Saints line to an offense with a lot of big play threats that will seriously test whatever secondary the Saints have taped together. But again, it’s an opportunity (provided they’ve been winning up til now, which as you’ve read, is a big if).
- DEGREE OF DIFFICULTY: high 80s | GRADE: TROUBLE, either way. If the Saints are 6-2 at this stage, this game becomes a hard one with Carolina looming. No one wants to watch 6-2 vaporize into 6-4. If the Saints are something much worse – say 3-5, this game becomes a must win with the Panthers up next, a last ditch effort to save the season.
November 17, @ Panthers: The end of the run here, and a game that could be the most important on the Saints schedule depending on what’s transpired in the last five weeks.
- DEGREE OF DIFFICULTY: High 80s | GRADE: TOUGHEST GAME OF THE YEAR. If we’re good, Carolina is going to play their best football to try and retain their shot at an NFC title … if we’re bad, this is the type of team that would happily undress the Saints to assert their dominance. Either way, it’s gonna be bumpy.
By the time this game rolls around, we’ll know everything we need to know about the 2016 New Orleans Saints. If they navigate this stretch of their schedule with a respectable record (and respectable to me is no less than 6-4, preferably 7-3), we could be in for a great season. Putting wins like these under their belts would give them the confidence and swagger to take on anyone left in their way. Stumbling through this corridor, however, will spell certain doom. I don’t think it’s ridiculous to consider losing all six of these games, and I don’t have to do the math for you to tell you what six loses does to their chances at the post season.
As we sit here, in April, I am reminded of another stretch that looked bad in the spring … and just as bad once the season progressed. At Philly, at Buffalo, vs the Jets, vs the Giants, at Miami. I remember seeing that run when the schedule came out and thinking yikes, that’s make or break right there. Those were games 2-6 in 2009. I think we all remember how that turned out.
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