Before we get to my “perfect lineup”, I’d like to take a moment to wish a very happy birthday to Evan Brunell, without whom Fire Brand and MVN wouldn’t even exist. I just want to say that you’re doing an awesome job, Evan, and I’m truly grateful for the opportunity to write for the best sports blogging network out there. Happy Birthday, Evan, and keep up the terrific work.
On to the “perfect lineup”. As you’ve probably noticed, the recent polls on Fire Brand have centered on what we the readers think should be the Red Sox starting lineup. A few days ago, I put down a lineup that seemed best to me in the comments without giving it too much thought. I sat down this morning and plowed through a ton of batting statistics for this year and last, to come up with a lineup that’s completely different. In fact, I still adamantly believe that we ought to have a different lineup against righties and lefties — but I’ll resist that notion for the purposes of this post, and go with a universal batting order. Here goes:
Batting First: Coco Crisp
Coco has been in a bit of a funk the past few days, his game-winning single on Tuesday night notwithstanding. I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt though, because playing through a flu-like affliction couldn’t have been very enjoyable. Since the All-Star Break, Coco is raking to the tune of a robust .295/.375/.411 line. Those numbers were even better in July, when he hit .323/.391/.505, and was one of our top hitters during a time when the other members of the team weren’t exactly epitomes of consistency.
One reason that Coco gets the nod in the leadoff spot over Lugo is that he has found a groove both at home and on the road, while Lugo is still hitting a putrid .184, with an atrocious .523 OPS away from Fenway. Another is that he’s a switch-hitter, who is roughly as productive against righties as he is against lefties. In other words, it’s Lugo’s splits, primarily, that make him an unattractive option for the top spot.
I also weighed putting Dustin Pedroia or Kevin Youkilis in the leadoff spot, but ultimately decided that their OBP abilities could be more useful lower in the order.
Batting Second: Kevin Youkilis
Where is the Kevin Youkilis who hit .402/.447/.679 in May? Where is the Greek God that we so loved before the All-Star Break? And why has he been replaced by this slumping, complaining impostor who looks closer to someone with rampant astigmatism than a hitter known for having some of the most judicious eyes in baseball?
Unfortunately, I don’t have the answer to any of those questions — at least not completely. What I do know, is that Kevin Youkilis is a more effective, productive hitter when he’s batting closer to the top of the order, than to the middle or bottom of it. A look at his situational statistics reveals that Youk is hitting a terrific .332/.438/.544 when he’s in the two-hole. Conversely, he’s only batting .217 with a .616 OPS from the fifth spot. Some hitters can bat anywhere in the lineup and take on any role and perform terrifically. Others, like Youkilis or the Cubs’ Alfonso Soriano, can’t. The Greek God seems much better suited for a spot in the lineup that requires him to get on base, rather than one that requires him to drive-in runners who are already on.
One thing that strikes me as strange though, is the fact that Youk seems to hit far better with runners on, than he does with the bases empty. That would seem to contradict the previous point, but in constructing the ultimate batting order, I think performance in different lineup spots is more important than performance in specific situations. Thus, Youkilis bats second.
Batting Third: Mike Lowell
Things get tricky right about here. The third spot in the lineup is usually reserved for the most fearsome hitter in the lineup — which, in Red Sox terms, would seem to entail either David Ortiz or Manny Ramirez. Except right now, that’s not the case; rather, the Sox best overall hitter right now is: Mike Lowell. When he hit .227 in June, many of us thought that Mikey’s second-half woes were beginning a little early this season. Not so, he’s batting .336/.391/.459 since the Break, and a tremendous .346/.404/.500 in August. Sure, Lowell doesn’t have the power that Big Papi and Manny do, but I’d trust him in a game-changing situation right now more than either of them.
One thing that would seem to make Lowell an unattractive option in this lineup is that he’d be batting right behind another righthanded hitter, Youkilis. But the opposite-hand wisdom doesn’t quite apply to our third-baseman, who has a hit 14 of his 16 homers this season against righties, and owns an .885 OPS against righties, compared to an .810 mark against southpaws. Lowell is also tougher to strike-out than both Papi and Manny, and I like that in a hitter batting in a vital spot in the lineup.
In other words, I can’t find anything against batting Lowell third (at least while he’s scorching hot at the plate), and so he gets the nod there.
Batting Fourth: Manny Ramirez
I can just hear everyone saying, “Wait, what the heck happened to Big Papi?” Don’t despair, fellas, he’s coming.
Manny gets cleanup spot for a variety of reasons, not the least of which is the fact that I’d like to maintain the lefty-righty-lefty-righty thing (though Lowell kind of violates it). ManRam isn’t doing a whole lot of ramming this month, batting just .235 with only one homerun, but I doubt that this slump will last. Plus, he’s still thrashing lefties to the tune of a .348/.476/.626 line this season. Yes, he does take far too many strike threes and then walk nonchalantly back to the dugout like he knew they were strikes all along and felt like there wasn’t anything he could do, but he’s still one of the better hitters in the game, and one of the top bats in our lineup. In fact, his post All-Star Break OPS is .958 despite the recent slump, so it’s not like he’s been funking for all that long.
Then there’s the fact that Manny is already our cleanup hitter. I’m not too crazy about the idea of moving him somewhere else, because the next thing you know, he’ll demand to get traded midseason, and we really, really don’t want that. All things considered, he’s having a fine year for a 35 year-old slugger, even if it is a downer by his lofty standards.
Batting Fifth: David Ortiz
There’s Big Papi, two spots down, but certainly not out of the lineup. Papi too, has been slumping in August, batting .255 with a .768 OPS. My guess is that the trouble is his aching shoulder, and the remedy for that is, well, I don’t think there’s a quick one. That’s one of the primary reasons why I feel as though we need to move him down a bit in the order, at least temporarily. His monthly OPS hadn’t been below .979 this season, and now suddenly it has floundered over two-hundred points; the most likely explanation is therefore the aforementioned injury.
Papi is still getting on base with his fine eye (.364 OBP), but I feel as though he’s also trying to do too much. His swinging at junk breaking balls in the dirt that come within millimeters of his cleats is pretty good evidence of Papi overdoing it. One cure to this might be to move him down to a less pressure-filled spot in the order, until he either returns to the Papi we’re used to, or recovers his health.
For now, David Ortiz is batting fifth. God that sounds weird.
NOTE: I wouldn’t be at all against flip-flopping Papi and Manny depending on the handedness of the opposing pitcher: Manny bats cleanup against southpaws; Papi gets the nod there against northpaws.
Batting Sixth: Dustin Pedroia
I think that after Wednesday’s loss to Tampa Bay, we all want to punish Dusty and bat him ninth. Yes, he half-assed the bunt attempt, but it seems that he was also fooled by the location of the pitch a bit, if you watch the replay. I’m fairly certain that the decision not to bunt after that wasn’t Pedroia’s, but rather one that came from the coaching staff (glaring at Tito).
Honestly, where would we be this season if not for Pedroia’s emergence as an All-Star caliber second-baseman? Perhaps not in terms of power, but you can’t deny that Pedroia’s been our best hitter in recent days. In fact, days when he doesn’t get more than just one hit have been few and far between lately.
Evan mentioned in a comment a few days ago that he viewed Pedroia as a potentially-valuable six- or seven-hitter. After pondering it, I agree. He hits well against both righties and lefties; performs nicely at home and on the road; and he’s our best contact hitter. Those of you who watched NESN today know that prior to striking-out against Al Reyes in that fateful AB in the ninth, Pedroia hadn’t K’d in more plate appearances than any other player in baseball (his last strikeout came way back on — drum roll, please — August 2nd!). He has 39 walks against 30 strikeouts for the season, and a .399 OBP. Oh, and he’s batting a ridiculous .426/.472/.553 this month.
I’d say that’s good enough to back up the sluggers, wouldn’t you?
Batting Seventh: J.D. Drew
Dave B. is quick to remind us that J.D. Drew has been “killing it” in August. Well, at least he was. Drew is now 0 for his last 8, including a potentially uber-costly GIDP during Tuesday’s game. Now he’s still batting a terrific .342 this month, but he’s hasn’t exactly been killing the ball the past few days. He is still getting on base at a .364 clip this season, so Drew hasn’t been anywhere near completely useless at the plate, and he has been showing signs of going the other way lately, but Drew just isn’t consistent enough to be occupying a premium lineup spot. At least not right now.
If Drew gets going again, I’d be all for moving him up in the order. But if we’re talking about the “perfect lineup” of today, he’s batting seventh in my book.
Batting Eighth: Jason Varitek
Our captain is batting a putrid .228/.354/.316 since the All-Star Break, with just five extra-base hits in 79 at-bats since then. And yet Tito still pencils him into the seventh spot in the lineup day after day, ahead of the usually-superior eighth- and ninth-place hitters. That doesn’t seem to make a whole lot of sense, though. Tek is still getting on base a respectable clip, but he has virtually been nothing more than a singles hitter since the Break, and a subpar one at that. Yes, he is getting old, but I think this is more of a slump than a fatigue-related collapse, and I really hope that he’s not hiding an injury, because we all know what happened when ‘Tek went down last year.
Until he figures out how to hit doubles and homers, Varitek just can’t be batting in an important spot in the lineup, which is why he gets dropped to 8th in this lineup.
Also, by batting Varitek 8th, Tito wouldn’t have to switch the lineup in games when Wakefield is pitching. Rather than move other players around, our skipper could simply pencil Mirabelli into the 8-hole, without changing anything else, since that would already be our catcher’s spot. I’m a believer in the notion that moving guys around in the order can hurt their rhythm and thus their performance, so this idea is especially attractive.
Batting Ninth: Julio Lugo
Lugo is not hitting like a ninth-place hitter right now. He’s still batting just .236 for the season, but that bumps up to .328/.361/.440 since the Break, and .347/.365/.449 this month. He’s also the second-fastest guy on the team, and a terrific hitter at Fenway Park.
Lugo’s problem though, is that he couldn’t hit a jackpot if he knew the winning lottery numbers on the road. Away from Boston, he’s hitting .184 with a .523 OPS. That’s all kinds of disgusting. And that’s the main reason why he’s the last-place hitter in my “perfect lineup”.
However, the other reason isn’t quite so negative. In fact, I like Lugo batting 9th, because when he is on, he can wreak havoc on the basepaths in a combination with Coco Crisp (who bats next in the one-spot). And if they start running with the mashers behind them, that woudl spell loads of trouble for opposing pitchers who would have way too many things to keep track of. Hence, batting ninth isn’t so much a punishment for Lugo, but rather a more effective way of using our shortstop as the player he is. (And Sean O., I know it might be hard to believe, but he does seem to know how to play baseball.)
To recap, we’ve got:
1. Coco Crisp, CF
2. Kevin Youkilis, 1B
3. Mike Lowell, 3B
4. Manny Ramirez, LF
5. David Ortiz, DH (flip-flopping Manny and Papi possible)
6. Dustin Pedroia, 2B
7. J.D. Drew, RF
8. Jason Varitek, C
9. Julio Lugo, SS
Feedback, positive and negative is more than welcome and much-appreciated.
Oh, and by the way, I’m certain that this lineup will never be used by Tito, unless someone gives him something really, really good to smoke. Certain enough, in fact, that if it does happen, I’ll paint I *heart* Tito on my back.
–Daniel Rathman
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