Myth and reality

Tip to Kuharsky, I’ve been saying this stuff all week.

Myth: The New York Jets have an elite pass defense.

Last year, the numbers matched perception: The Jets had the best defense, best pass defense and best pass defense against No. 1 receivers according to DVOA. Darrelle Revis was better than other cornerbacks at a level akin to the performance of a 2,000-yard running back being better than his peers. For the same reason that running backs don’t run for 2,000 yards every year, we predicted that the Jets’ pass defense would decline. Thanks to a Revis injury and poor play from their other cornerbacks, that’s been the case. The Jets still have a good pass defense — they rank seventh against the pass according to DVOA this year, and they’re a respectable 10th against No. 1 receivers — but they’re not anywhere close to where they were last year.

Myth: The Indianapolis Colts‘ biggest problem is their run defense. Historically, the undersized Colts have been able to contain passing games with the pass rush ability of Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis, but they’ve been pushed around in the running game and struggled to stop stout rushing attacks. This year, the Colts’ pass defense has been awful, ranking 26th in DVOA. The run defense? It’s a reasonable 19th. In fact, the Colts rank eighth on defense in those “power” run situations we mentioned earlier.