I’m pleased to be joined once again by Nate Dunlevy to preview the upcoming Titans-Colts matchup. Nate’s answers have been a staple of that since, oh, about 2008. Nate writes for the Colts site Colts Authority and was a contributor to CA’s 2014 Colts Authority Annual. He is the author of two books, Blue Blood on the Colts and the novel Invincible, Indiana. His wife Deb is also an author, and I liked her YA fantasy The Book of Sight more than I liked Invincible (and she recently finished the trilogy). You can (and should) follow him on Twitter. In addition to answering my questions, he sent some questions for me to answer, and you can read my answers over on Colts Authority.
Total Titans: The Colts entered the season (rightly) strong favorites to win the AFC South but were two games back of the Houston Texans after two games before closing the gap last weekend. How worried are you that the Colts are 1-2 right now, and how good are they compared to how good you thought they’d be after three weeks?
Nate Dunlevy: Indy is exactly who I thought they’d be. I consider Denver and Philly the toughest opponents on the schedule, and didn’t see much hope for the Colts to escape either game with a win. Two of the next three games for Indy are against the AFC South, and I fully expect them to be in first place at the end of them.
Total Titans: In one of our previous Q&A’s (or maybe a separate conversation), you mentioned Peyton Manning was a top two quarterback by DVOA in his second season. Andrew Luck was not. How far is Luck from being that player, and what are his biggest problem areas? Is it still bouts of errant judgment leading to risky throws?
Dunlevy: I wouldn’t say it’s errant judgment as much as errant mechanics. He will have stretches where his throws sail high, and he becomes inaccurate. He didn’t play poorly in the first two games, but neither was he transcendent enough to carry an inferior team to victory over the league’s best.
Total Titans: The Titans have been pretty vulnerable on the ground the last two weeks. How much will and should that affect what the Colts try to do on offense?
Dunlevy: Indy is at their best when they throw. We know they fall in love with the running game too much, and Ahmad Bradshaw has been very successful on the ground. Trent Richardson is still the disaster he ever was. The Colts would be well served to keep the ball in the air, if only to minimize Richardson’s touches.
Total Titans: Once news of his suspension came down, we knew the Colts would be playing without Robert Mathis, who led the team in sacks last year by a wide margin. Now he’s out for the year. How will the Colts try to get pressure on [Insert Titans Starting QB Name Here] without him?
Dunlevy: They won’t. Indy’s pass rush is virtually non-existent. Four sacks against the Jaguars is three more than they had all year. The lack of a rush is one of the reasons I’m down on their long-term prospects for this year. They’ll blitz with the linebackers and safeties to make up for it, so they can be beaten deep.
Total Titans: Is there anything I haven’t asked you about you’d like Titans fans to know about the Colts?
Dunlevy: The Colts are an incomplete team. They have some difference makers and they have massive holes. Their ceiling is “tough playoff team”. Their floor is “best team in a bad division”. Andrew Luck props up the rest of the club, and is the reason they’ll make the playoffs in a division starting Whitehurst, Bortles and Fitzpatrick at quarterback this weekend.
Total Titans: Finally, if you’d like to make a score prediction, please feel free.
Dunlevy: Indy has to sweep the AFC South games, and I don’t think they’ll lose this one. Indy 34 Tennessee 17.
Thanks again to Nate for some great answers to my questions, and don’t forget to check out Colts Authority for my answers to his questions and lots of great Colts content.
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