National Championship: Villanova (2) vs North Carolina (1)

National Championship: Villanova (2) vs North Carolina (1)

Line: Carolina (-2.5)

Location: NRG Stadium (Houston, TX)

Time: 9:19 PM on TBS (Villanova broadcast on TruTV)

Starters:

Villanova

G- Ryan Arcidiacono (Sr)

G- Jalen Brunson (Fr)

G- Josh Hart (Jr)

F- Kris Jenkins (Jr)

C- Daniel Ochefu (Sr)

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North Carolina

G- Marcus Paige (Sr)

G- Joel Berry (So)

F- Justin Jackson (So)

F- Kennedy Meeks (Jr)

F- Brice Johnson (Sr)

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Outlook:

This National Championship matchup will feature two of the hottest teams in college basketball. Villanova and Carolina have both been dominant all tournament. Villanova has destroyed every one of their opponents besides a close game against Kansas. Carolina has won all of their tournament games by double digits. Vegas, despite Villanova’s dominance, has UNC listed as a favorite but it’s not hard to see why. This Carolina team is as talented and deep as any team in the country. Carolina, like Villanova, starts with a two point guard lineup. Marcus Paige is one of the best 3 point shooters in the country and can initiate the offense. Joel Berry is an incredibly talented creator who can also take control of the offense. On the wing, Justin Jackson is as talented and versatile as they come. He is an incredibly long athlete with a varied offensive game. Carolina also boasts the best frontcourt in the country. Kennedy Meeks and Brice Johnson are both skilled inside scorers and great rebounders. These two have dominated opposing teams throughout the tournament and heavily contributed to the Tar Heels complete dismantling of all their opponents. Carolina also brings Isaiah Hicks, a big man who would start for almost any other team in the country, comes off the bench for the Tar Heels. They can also bring high energy guard Theo Pinson into the game. Roy Williams has a lot of matchup versatility even if his first or second option isn’t working.

Villanova will certainly have their hands full with this Carolina team, but they have a chance. Villanova may not be as deep in the front court, but they have size in Daniel Ochefu and Darryl Reynolds. Coach Jay Wright will probably have to play these two big men together quite a bit to counter these Carolina big men and hope that his bigs can avoid foul trouble. Villanova also has a chance to defend Carolina well even when the Wildcats play a smaller lineup because they are so active and handsy on defense. Villanova will make the life of the Tar Heels big men hell with their toughness and activity. Nova needs to pressure the ballhanders in order to make the entry passes more difficult. They also need to gang rebound. Carolina killed Syracuse on the offensive glass and if Villanova lets that happen to them, they won’t have a chance.

On offense, Villanova needs to play the way they have throughout the whole tournament. They need to attack the basket on drives, post-ups, and cuts. This will open up some outside shots for the Cats. They have been knocking these shots down throughout the tournament and they will need to continue to do that. Carolina isn’t a great defensive team overall, but they have mightily improved over the course of the year. Johnson is an adequate rim protector and Carolina has the athletes to cut off penetration. Villanova needs to attack Carolina’s two weak spots, Kennedy Meeks and Marcus Paige. Paige isn’t a great athlete. The Wildcats can put him in pick and rolls and take him off the dribble in order to force the Tar Heels into some defensive rotations. Meeks is an interesting question for Carolina. Either he has to guard Kris Jenkins on the perimeter (which he can’t do) or he is stuck battling with Ochefu on the inside. Meeks can do a decent job on Ochefu but that would force Carolina’s best shot blocker, Brice Johnson, to guard Jenkins and be away from the basket. Nova doesn’t have quite as many advantages as they did against Oklahoma, but they still have some things to exploit.

Prediction: Carolina 74, Villanova 70

Picking against Villanova is incredibly tough. They have been the best and most dominant team in the tournament. Jay Wright’s team has been amazing on both ends of the floor and are playing better than I have ever seen them play before. Still, I just think this is a terrible matchup for Villanova. Carolina has the guards to break Nova’s pressure and the big men to attack Nova in the paint. They also have an athlete on the perimeter in Justin Jackson who can contain Josh Hart. Jay Wright can play two big men together to counteract Carolina’s size but I think that will hurt the offense too much against Roy Williams’ team. The Tar Heels are probably the only team in the country that is deeper than Villanova. Carolina will just continue to throw big bodies and athletes at Villanova. Villanova can try to counteract this with team defense and different line-up combinations, but I just think it will be too hard. Nova will have to play a perfect game to beat the Tar Heels and it’s hard to bet on anyone playing a perfect team. Nova has a chance. They are tough, skilled, athletic and hard working. Jay Wright is one of the best coaches in the country. I wouldn’t be surprised if he had some fantastic trick up his sleeve and just outcoached Roy Williams. The Wildcats are a great team, I just think they are running into a better one.