Handicapping the 2016 National League MVP Race

With the Pirates officially in the offseason, Pirates Breakdown turns its attention to the playoffs and the upcoming 2016 season awards. This week we’ll focus on the 2016 National League MVP Award.

The National League MVP Award may not have contenders on the level of Mike Trout or Mookie Betts, but the senior circuit saw some great performances on the field in 2016. Ultimately, like the American League, the National League MVP Award will go to a player who carried his team to the postseason. While Nolan Arenado and Freddie Freeman turned in impressive performances this season, Kris Bryant will and should be the MVP of the National League.

Comparing the Contenders

Before we run down why Bryant will be the MVP, let’s take a look at his offensive statistics along with who I think are his top two competitors, Arenado and Freeman. I’ve included their rankings among their NL brethren as well.

So what do these numbers tell us? Well, for one thing, none of the top candidates for the award are what we would call fleet-footed. We can call them sluggers, that’s for sure. Among the statistics listed above, Arenado’s 133 RBI is probably the most impressive because it’s so much more than the other challengers for the hardware this year.

But we know that a statistic like runs batted in is dependent upon a player having teammates that get on base. What this tells us is that Arenado came to the plate with a lot of men on base and was able to drive them in. However, someone like Bryant played on a winning team that scored an incredible number of runs. So his opportunities to knock his teammates in were probably lessened because of how many talented hitters were in the Chicago lineup in 2016.

The top candidates for the award are all corner infielders, with Bryant also logging some time in the outfield last season. Arenado is one of the very best defensive third basemen in the game today, a high caliber player capable of pulling off a highlight reel play on a nightly basis. Arenado’s .973 fielding percentage only lags behind Anthony Rendon’s .976. Bryant’s .953 at third base was behind Arenado, but he also did not play enough games at the hot corner to qualify this year.

As outlined in the AL MVP article, the voters for these awards typically take two sides: either vote for the best player or vote for the best player that was poised to get his team to the postseason. This year, both of those categories point to the same player: Bryant.

With the Braves finishing 68-93 and the Rockies ending with a record of 75-87, I just can’t see the voters selecting either Freeman or Arenado given how bad their teams were in 2016. It’s not fair to penalize a good player because his supporting cast is subpar, but unfortunately that is sometimes the mentality of the voters. And because Bryant was the better ballplayer, the decision is pretty obvious.

Who will win?

Fortunately this year, it won’t matter. Bryant should easily walk away with his first MVP award. Bryant was the better ballplayer (at least from a WAR standpoint) and got his team into the playoffs. Freeman and Arenado both had great seasons and showed why they are top of the very best in the National League. It’s just hard to see the voters passing on the opportunity to vote for a player who could end the Cubs’ World Series drought, no matter how painful it is to this fan of the Pirates to admit.

Let us know who you think should be the NL MVP in the comments below!