The playoffs kick off this weekend, and most notably, the Portland Trail Blazers are in the postseason for the first time since the 2010-11 season when they lost to Dallas in the first round. LaMarcus Aldridge is the only starter from that season still with the team, although Wesley Matthews and Nicolas Batum had big roles off the bench in what would become Brandon Roy’s final year with the team. The Blazers’ second season starts on Sunday in Houston, and they have high hopes as the team is finally healthy and ready to show the NBA they are the same dangerous and elite squad that they were in November and December.
Here’s a look at each of the four Western Conference opening round playoff series, why to watch, and how each matchup could potentially impact Portland, and a prediction for each series:
(1) San Antonio VS (8) Dallas: It may sound cliché, but Tim Duncan and Dirk Nowitzki are not getting any younger, and this may be the last postseason we see both future hall of fame players lead their teams on another championship hunt. While I don’t fully expect either team to have the energy to beat the Clippers or Oklahoma City in a seven game series, both teams are extremely dangerous and have everything you need to compete for a championship. Should be a fun first round matchup.
Why you should watch: Duncan vs Dirk. And if that’s not enough, Monte Ellis vs Tony Parker should be just as good. Neither team has a great center so both future HOF forwards will need to do plenty down low and get lots of help from their super speedy guards. Should be one of the better matchups, and one SA should win, but you can never really count out Dallas.
Impact on Portland: Whichever team wins, Portland wins. The Blazers have everything it needs to get by either opponent, but for whatever reason, teams from Texas seem to be Portland’s kryptonite this season, so if they can get past Houston, only one other potential opponent from the Lone-Star state would remain in the playoff picture.
Prediction: San Antonio wins in 6.
(2) Oklahoma City VS (7) Memphis: It may not be the most exciting matchup, but there’s plenty of star power to go around. Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, and Serge Ibaka against Marc Gasol, Zach Randolph, and Mike Conley Jr. It’s OKC’s fast paced offensive style against the old-school inside power game of the Grizzlies, and if this series is anything like their 2011 series, we are in for a treat.
Why you should watch: No matter who they face, Durant and Westbrook are two of the most exciting players in the NBA. They sprint from hoop to hoop, and Miami is the only team I have ever seen outrun and outplay them in the playoffs. Memphis could slow things down with their preferred half-court game, but I fully expect OKC to follow Durant and literally run away with his one.
Impact on Portland: Memphis winning helps no one but Memphis, and a long series resulting in Memphis losing doesn’t help either. A tired OKC team against the Clippers while Portland takes on SA means the Clippers will be well rested and waiting for the winner of POR/SA. OKC needs to win this series, and win it quickly so they can have the energy to take on LA and drag the series to seven so Portland ideally beats SA and gets to face a tired OKC or LA squad in the conference finals.
Prediction: OKC wins in seven games.
(3) Los Angeles Clippers VS (6) Golden State: This really could and should have been a dream playoff matchup. Chris Paul and JJ Reddick against Steph Curry and Klay Thompson. Andrew Bogut and David Lee against DeAndre Jordan and Blake Griffin. X-factors Matt Barnes and Jamaal Crawford against Andre Iguodala and Steve Blake. Talent vs talent, size vs size, attitude vs attitude. Who can perform in the clutch in the ideal game seven scenario? As appealing as a matchup as that was supposed to be, we likely won’t see this series last beyond five games, let alone make it to a game seven. Now that Bogut is likely to miss the playoffs with a fractured rib, the Warriors do not have a counter for Jordan, as admirably as Jermaine O’Neal has tried to fill in. Lee is now back from a hamstring issue but can he play down low against Jordan and Griffin with O’Neal and Draymond Green aiding him? My guess is no. As good as Steph Curry is and how much he elevates the entire team’s talent, I think he has his back against the wall before this series even tips off.
Why you should watch: Chris Paul and Steph Curry, two of the most effective and gifted all-around players to ever suit up in the NBA. JJ Reddick and Klay Thompson having an in-game three point contest. David Lee’s tough as nails inside play being tested and possibly broken by DeAndre Jordan and Blake Griffin’s seemingly endless and relentless contention on both ends.
Impact on Portland: A Warriors team minus Andrew Bogut might seem like an advantage for Portland, but hear me out, because I know you hate the Clippers, but Portland won’t play Golden State again this year, so stop thinking that way. Assuming that the top seeds other than Houston win their opening round series, and thinking in terms of “the enemy of your enemy is your friend”, I’d rather see LA win this one and push OKC to the limit in round two while Portland takes on San Antonio, and then see who can survive between Portland and LA/OKC, rather than see the Warriors take down LA and then likely get killed and killed quickly in a series against San Antonio while Portland expels all of their energy against OKC for the right to battle a healthy and rested Spurs squad trying to give Tim Duncan one last hurrah that he was supposed to have last year. You may disagree, but I am advocating for cheering for the Clippers in this one, and that should actually help Portland get deeper in the playoffs.
Prediction: LA wins in five games.
(4) Houston VS (5) Portland: Finally, the Blazers are back in the dance after a three year drought. The team has been rebuilt, revitalized, and is ready to go on a run. No, a matchup with Dwight Howard and James Harden is not ideal. And no, the Blazers don’t have anyone that matches size with Howard, so he will be tough to overcome. That said, Portland is as good or better at PF, SF, and PG, so they should be able to work around their lack of size in the post and play some small ball to make use of their athleticism rather than trying to force Lopez against a guy he simply doesn’t have the size and strength to play against by himself. They should ideally rotate Lopez and Robinson and Freeland and frustrate Howard with fresh and tall defensemen, while no one player gets exhausted or in foul trouble, and space the defense against the rest of the team.
Why to watch: The size and strength of Howard and playmaking ability of Harden against Aldridge’s outstanding all-around game and Lillard’s highlight reel moment after highlight reel moment. Not to mention that Portland hasn’t been in the playoffs since 2011, has a completely different roster than that team, and is facing a completely rebuilt Houston team that knocked Portland out in 2010 when Yao was still in the NBA, Howard was in Orlando, Harden was coming off the bench in OKC, and Lillard (college) and Mathews (Jazz) were working tirelessly to make a name for themselves somewhere in Utah. It’s basically a matchup three years in the making, so make sure you tune in.
Prediction: Portland wins in 6 games.
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