Hey, that (kinda) rhymes!
Today was Selection Sunday for NCAA men’s volleyball 2014. And with no shortage of surprise and intrigue, we got our first ever six-team national championship field. Here it is.
Quarterfinals
(to be played Tuesday)
(4) Lewis vs (5) Penn State, 7:00 PM EDT (ncaa.com)
(3) Stanford vs (6) Erskine, 9:00 PM EDT (ncaa.com)
Semifinals
(to be played Thursday)
3/6 winner vs (2) BYU, 7:00 PM EDT (ncaa.com)
4/5 winner vs (1) Loyola, 9:00 PM EDT (ncaa.com)
National Championship match
To be played at 8:00 PM EDT, televised on ESPNU
So. Yeah. Lewis.
Obviously the Flyers earning the second at-large bid here is the big takeaway. This decision has been received with a lot of confusion and a bit of anger among West coast fans. I don’t share in the anger, but I do share in the confusion. It’s hard for me to see how Lewis were considered more deserving than Pepperdine of that second at-large bid.
Vinnie Lopes over at Off the Block had the following to say on Friday, when he projected Lewis into the tournament field ahead of Pepperdine:
The big determinant on Lewis earning the at-large bid over Pepperdine could come down to if the NCAA Tournament selection committee has Ball State included among the teams under consideration for an at-large bid. Lewis won all three matches against Ball State this season and those wins have boosted Flyers’ in the critical criteria category of record versus teams qualified or under consideration for a spot in the NCAA Tournament.
(and then he took them out and put Pepperdine in in his final projection. Stick to your guns Vinnie!)
This I think pretty well encapsulates why this decision is drawing head scratches at best, and pitchforks-and-torches ire at worst. Lewis got in because of wins over Ball State? It’s true that they did also beat BYU — back in January — which I completely forgot yesterday, but other than that their big out-of-conference wins were over Pacific and Mount Olive. They didn’t beat Penn State. They didn’t beat Stanford. And I’m not sure I’d agree that they get points for trying. Schedule tough, yes. But scheduling tough and winning should mean more. Even though Pepperdine didn’t play even one counting non-conference match this season, can anyone really say Lewis’ schedule was harder? The national rankings, which always have to be taken with a pinch of salt, sure didn’t position Lewis as one of the top six teams in the nation (nor of course did they for Erskine, but obviously that’s different), nor any of their opponents except Loyola and that season-opening two-fer with UCI and BYU.
None of that is meant to denigrate Lewis and they season they had. If anything, I hope they hit the court against Penn State with a little chip on their collective shoulder, feeling the motivation to blow the Nittany Lions out of the water. Would make for an excellent match if they do.
There’s some intrigue in the bracket itself, too. We’ll have new national champions, as two-time reigning (can’t exactly call ’em defending anymore) national champions UC Irvine will be watching this tournament from home like the rest of us. The Anteaters had a difficult beginning to 2014 and despite their really kicking it into gear later on, I don’t think anybody would have projected them for an at-large after their MPSF tournament loss to Stanford. They’ll retool for next year, and could once again be a force to be reckoned with.
The bracket guarantees there will not be an all-MPSF national championship final. This has not happened since 2011, when top-seeded USC and fourth-seeded UC Santa Barbara faced each other in one semifinal and Big Ten brothers Penn State and Ohio State faced each other in the other (the Buckeyes wound up beating the Gauchos for the national title). The likeliest national final appears, as it has for a lot of the season, to be Loyola/BYU. Barring one of the biggest upsets in men’s volleyball history, we’ll get a rematch of the fine Stanford/BYU matchup we had in the MPSF final last night (despite BYU winning in a sweep, it was a tight, competitive match — final scores of 25-23, 25-22, 25-22). Put that match on neutral court and should it be a whale of a return bout.
The other semifinal will be a regular-season rematch. Not just ‘will likely be,’ it will be. Loyola beat Penn State in four sets on 21 March, and they’ve likewise beaten Lewis in four sets three different times now. I don’t see either team threatening them. They’re clear for a national final on home court.
Picks? Sure.
Stanford over Erskine
Penn State over Lewis
BYU over Stanford
Loyola over Penn State
BYU over Loyola
I’d say BYU, Stanford, and Loyola all have about a 30% chance of winning it….maybe buff Loyola a few points for playing at home, and nerf Stanford a few for needing to win three matches instead of two like the Ramblers and Cougars. Give 5% each to Penn State and Lewis (though now that I write that, it seems high). Erskine? Hey, you guys are winners just for making it this far. Maybe in three or four years we can think about a Conference Carolinas team hanging around with the nation’s very elite. Not this year.
Should be a great tournament!
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