NCAA Tournament Preview: Midwest Region

Action in the Midwest region begins tonight with the 16 seed play-in game between Hampton and Manhattan. The winner of that game has the unenviable task of being Kentucky’s only guaranteed victim of March. If Kentucky was the 1 seed that was upset by the 16 seed, it would be the greatest upset in the history of college basketball. We would have to retire the word ‘upset’ after such an occassion.

The Wildcats path doesn’t seem riddled with teams that are a clear threat to them making a long run. There are some good teams of course, just none that seem to match up with the powerhouse. There are great stories in this region. You have five Indiana teams that could end up meeting and give us a slew of stories. One of the trendy picks is Wichita State battling Kansas in the round of 32. That’s a game Kansas does not care about playing that Wichita State very much does. You have West Virginia and Kentucky meeting potentially in the Sweet 16 with the historical footnote of West Virginia knocking the 2011 Kentucky team out of the tournament. You have a potential Kansas-Kentucky rematch. You have a potential Cincinnati vs Bob Huggins game waiting in the Sweet 16.

You also have the Texas Longhorns as the 11 seed. A lot has been said about whether or not Texas should have made the tournament. Now that they are in a one game playoff, they are going to be picked on talent alone by some. The Longhorns are a trendy pick over the 6 seed Butler for that reason. Texas is currently favored in Vegas. This is one of the weird things about the tournament. People have been railing on Texas for weeks saying that they had their chances against the RPI top 50 and blew almost all of them. Yet, they are playing another RPI top 50 team in Butler and many are picking them to win.

Before we get to know the teams, let’s get to know the statistical leaders. Just going to use the common stats: points, field goals made, free throws made, free throw percentage, 3 pointers made, 3 point percentage, rebounds, offensive rebounds, assists, steals and blocks. There will be a top 25 for scorers and the rest will be top 15.

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Points

1. 17.7 – Justin Moss, Buffalo
2. 16.8 – Jerian Grant, Notre Dame
3. 16.7 – Alec Peters, Valparaiso
4. 16.6 – Kellen Dunham, Butler
5. 16.5 – Emmy Andujar, Manhattan
6. 16.3 – Melo Trimble, Maryland
7. 16.1 – Yogi Ferrell, Indiana
8. 15.7 – James Blackmon Jr, Indiana
9. 15.4 – Dez Wells, Maryland
10. 15.4 – Shannon Evans, Buffalo
11. 15 – Ron Baker, Wichita State
12. 14.5 – Juwan Staten, West Virginia
13. 14.5 – Scott Eatherton, Northeastern
14. 13.8 – Perry Ellis, Kansas
15. 13.5 – Ashton Pankey, Manhattan
16. 13.3 – David Walker, Northeastern
17. 13.3 – Remi Barry, New Mexico State
18. 13.1 – Troy Williams, Indiana
19. 13.1 – Shane Richard, Manhattan
20. 13 – Isaiah Taylor, Texas
21. 13 – Pascal Siakam, New Mexico State
22. 13 – Dwight Meikle, Hampton
23. 12.8 – Pat Connaughton, Notre Dame
24. 12.8 – Jake Layman, Maryland

12.7 – Fred Van Vleet, Wichita State

Field Goals

1. 200 – Justin Moss, Buffalo
2. 190 – Scott Eatherton, Northeastern
3. 189 – Alec Peters, Valparaiso
4. 187 – Emmy Andujar, Manhattan
5. 185 – Jerian Grant, Notre Dame
6. 171 – Yogi Ferrell, Indiana
7. 173 – James Blackmon Jr, Indiana
8. 164 – Kellen Dunham, Butler
9. 164 – Pascal Siakam, New Mexico State
10. 162 – Zach Auguste, Notre Dame
11. 161 – Ron Baker, Wichita State
12. 159 – Troy Williams, Indiana
13. 158 – Perry Ellis, Kansas
14. 158 – Shannon Evans, Buffalo
15. 156 – Roosevelt Jones, Butler

Free Throws Made

1. 199 – Melo Trimble, Maryland
2. 166 – Justin Moss, Buffalo
3. 154 – Jerian Grant, Notre Dame
4. 148 – Ashton Pankey, Manhattan
5. 134 – Emmy Andujar, Mahattan
6. 132 – Kellen Dunham, Butler
7. 121 – Devin Williams, West Virginia
8. 115 – David Walker, Northeastern
9. 113 – Shannon Evans, Buffalo
10. 111 – Juwan Staten, West Virginia
11. 110 – Perry Ellis, Kansas
12. 110 – Fred Van Vleet, Wichita State
13. 107 – Scott Eatherton, Northeastern
14. 105 – Yogi Ferrell, Indiana
15. 104 – Frank Marson III, Kansas

Free Throw % – min attempts 40

1. 91.7 – Brannen Greene, Kansas
2. 86.5 – Melo Trimble, Maryland
3. 86.5 – David Walker, Northeastern
4. 85.7 – Kellen Dunham, Butler
5. 85.4 – Yogi Ferrell, Indiana
6. 84.9 – Steve Vasturia, Notre Dame
7. 84.9 – Deron Powers, Hampton
8. 84.1 – Alec Peters, Valparaiso
9. 84 – Myles Turner, Texas
10. 84 – Brian Darden, Hampton
11. 83.8 – Isaiah Taylor, Texas
12. 82.8 – Devin Booker, Kentucky
13. 82.5 – Alex Barlow, Butler
14. 81.9 – Shane Richards, Manhattan
15. 81.4 – Karl-Anthony Towns, Kentucky

81.4 – James Blackmon Jr, Indiana

3 Pointers Made

1. 88 – Pat Connaughton, Notre Dame
2. 88 – Shane Richards, Manhattan
3. 79 – Alec Peters, Valparaiso
4. 78 – Yogi Ferrell, Indiana
5. 76 – Ron Baker, Wichita State
6. 75 – James Blackmon Jr, Indiana
7. 73 – Kellen Dunham, Butler
8. 72 – Kendall Stephens, Purdue
9. 67 – David Walker, Northeastern
10. 66 – Brian Darden, Hampton
11. 63 – Shannon Evans, Buffalo
12. 62 – Nick Zeisloft, Indiana
13. 61 – Jarryn Skeete, Buffalo
14. 58 – Ian Baker, New Mexico State
15. 56 – Melo Trimble, Maryland

56 – Alex Barlow, Butler

3 Point % – min attempts 40

1. 55.1 – Caleb Donnelly, Northeastern
2. 50 – Dez Wells, Maryland
3. 47.3 – Demarcus Holland, Texas
4. 47.2 – Ian Baker, New Mexico State
5. 46.2 – Alec Peters, Valparaiso
6. 45.6 – Collin Hartman, Indiana
7. 45.3 – Nick Zeisloft, Indiana
8. 44.6 – Remi Barry, New Mexico State
9. 43.6 – Pat Connaughton, Notre Dame
10. 43.1 – Troy Caupain, Cincinnati
11. 42.9 – Devin Booker, Kentucky
12. 42.4 – VJ Beachem, Notre Dame
13. 41.9 – RaSwan Stores, Manhattan
14. 41.8 – Tyler Ulis, Kentucky

41.5 – Kellen Dunham, Butler

Rebounds

1. 313 – Kameron Woods, Butler
2. 295 – Justin Moss, Buffalo
3. 254 – Pascal Siakam, New Mexico State
4. 253 – Pat Connaughton, Notre Dame
5. 253 – Devin Wiliams, West Virginia
6. 235 – Emmy Andujar, Manhattan
7. 232 – Octavius Ellis, Cincinnati
8. 227 – Karl-Anthony Towns, Kentucky
9. 226 – Troy Williams, Indiana
10. 225 – Gary Clark, Cincinnati
11. 224 – Perry Ellis, Kansas
12. 223 – Alec Peters, Buffalo
13. 219 – Willie Cauley-Stein, Kentucky
14. 217 – Dwight Meikle, Hampton
15. 216 – AJ Hammons, Purdue
16. 216 – Scott Eatherton, Northeastern

Offensive Rebounds

1. 109 – Pascal Siakam, New Mexico State
2. 96 – Kameron Woods, Butler
3. 95 – Jonathan Holton, West Virginia
4. 91 – Justin Moss, Buffalo
5. 87 – Devin Williams, West Virginia
6. 86 – Octavius Ellis, Cincinnati
7. 85 – Emmy Andujar, Manhattan
8. 84 – Gary Clark, Cincinnati
9. 81 – Karl-Anthony Towns, Kentucky
10. 77 – AJ Hammons, Purdue
11. 77 – Willie Cauley-Stein, Kentucky
12. 76 – Vashil Fernandez, Valparaiso
13. 74 – Cameron Ridley, Texas
14. 74 -Xavier Ford, Buffalo

74 – Ashton Pankey, Manhattan

Assists

1. 226 – Jerian Grant, Notre Dame
2. 170 – Fred Van Vleet, Wichita State
3. 163 – Yogi Ferrell, Indiana
4. 150 – Shannon Evans, Buffalo
5. 138 – Lamonte Bearden, Buffalo
6. 137 – Frank Mason, Kansas
7. 126 – Andrew Harrison, Kentucky
8. 125 – Juwan Staten, West Virginia
9. 120 – Tyler Ulis, Kentucky
10. 119 – David Walker, Northeastern
11. 119 – Deron Powers, Hampton
12. 118 – Roosevelt Jones, Butler
13. 113 – Troy Caupain, Cincinnati
14. 110 – TJ Williams, Northeastern
15. 110 – Emmy Andujar, Manhattan

Turnovers

1. 125 – Emmy Andujar, Manhattan
2. 85 – Roosevelt Jones, Butler
3. 82 – Shannon Evans, Buffalo
4. 81 – Melo Trimble, Maryland
5. 80 – Dez Wells, Maryland
6. 79 – Dwight Meikle, Hampton
7. 76 – Zach Stahl, Northeastern
8. 74 – TJ Williams, Northeastern
9. 74 – David Walker, Northeastern
10. 73 – Jerian Grant, Notre Dame
11. 73 – Ashton Pankey, Manhattan
12. 72 – Justin Moss, Buffalo
13. 72 – Ian Baker, New Mexico State
14. 71 – AJ Hammons, Purdue

71 – Quincy Ford, Northeastern

Steals

1. 70 – Alex Barlow, Butler
2. 65 – Emmy Andujar, Manhattan
3. 59 – Jevon Carter, West Virginia
4. 58 – Fred Van Vleet, Wichita State
5. 57 – Jerian Grant, Notre Dame
6. 56 – Demetrius Jackson, Notre Dame
7. 55 – Shannon Evans, Buffalo
8. 48 – Frank Mason, Kansas
9. 47 – Ian Baker, New Mexico State
10. 45 – Ke’Ron Brown, Hampton
11. 44 – Willie Cauley-Stein, Kentucky
12. 44 – Lamonte Bearden, Buffalo
13. 43 – Tyler Wilson, Manhattan
14. 42 – Aaron Harrison, Kentucky

42 – Daniel Mullings, New Mexico State

Blocks

1. 98 – Vashil Fernandez, Valparaiso
2. 95 – AJ Hammons, Purdue
3. 88 – Myles Turner, Texas
4. 80 – Karl-Anthony Towns, Kentucky
5. 66 – Octavius Ellis, Cincinnati
6. 59 – Pascal Siakam, New Mexico State
7. 57 – Cameron Ridley, Texas
8. 56 – Willie Cauley-Stein, Kentucky
9. 47 – Prince Ibeh, Texas
10. 46 – Ashton Pankey, Manhattan
11. 43 – Damonte Dobb, Maryland
12. 43 – Scott Eatherton, Northeastern
13. 43 – Dwight Meikle, Hampton
14. 41- Gary Clark, Cincinnati
15. 41 – Jervon Pressley, Hampton

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How They Got Here

1) Kentucky Wildcats – SEC Tournament champions

2) Kansas Jayhawks – At large

3) Notre Dame Fighting Irish – ACC Tournament champions

4) Maryland Terrapins – At large

5) West Virginia Mountaineers – At large

6) Butler Bulldogs – At large

7) Wichita State Shockers – At large

8) Cincinnati Bearcats – At large

9) Purdue Boilermakers – At large

10) Indiana Hoosiers – At large

11) Texas Longhorns – At large

12) Buffalo Bulls – MAC Tournament champions

13) Valparaiso Crusaders – Horizon Tournament champions

14) Northeastern Huskies – CAA Tournament champions

15) New Mexico State Aggies – WAC Tournament champions

16) Manhattan Jaspers – MAAC Tournament champions

16) Hampton Pirates – MEAC Tournament champions

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The Favorite – Kentucky Wildcats

The top overall seed is a gigantic favorite to win the region. There is one bracket where no other team has higher than 9% odds to come out of the bracket, this one. Cincinnati and Purdue have under 10% odds to beat Kentucky in the second round COMBINED. That’s how heavy a favorite the Wildcats are. No other team is above 82% to reach the Sweet 16.

It helps that the Wildcats got a very fortunate path. Maryland and West Virginia are each being talked about having a chance at being upset in the first round. When those are the two best teams you’ll face before the Elite 8, that’s not a bad road.

There’s also the fact that Kentucky went undefeated during the regular season and are really damn good.

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Elite 8 Sleeper – Wichita State

The Shockers look a little underseeded considering that a lot of the metrics had them as a top 20 team. It’s not often you see a 7 seed with the fourth best odds to make it out of their region. In fact, Wichita State is the only one. A potential second round game with Kansas in Omaha would be a hell of a lot of fun. A potential Sweet 16 game with Notre Dame would have the looks of a great guard dominated contest. Plus, the story of Wichita State trying to knock undefeated Kentucky out of the tournament a year after Kentucky knocked an undefeated Wichita State team out of the tournament is so good.

Also, Ron Baker and Fred Van Vleet are really great and you are going to have to kill them like Dracula to knock out the Shockers.

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Upset Everyone is Picking – Texas over Butler

The Longhorns have so many big bodies to throw at the Bulldogs. Kameron Woods is good but he’s all Butler really has inside. Myles Turner and Ridley and company could and should dominate. Not playing Big 12 teams should be a help to Texas as well.

I would be wary of picking Texas just because the Longhorns have looked really strong but have dropped every close game as of late. They played strong at Kansas but lost. UT was crushing Iowa State then had a huge collapse to lose. Butler is a team that’s going to bring it all 40 minutes. Will Texas wilt?

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Can Notre Dame Make it Out of the First Weekend?

Notre Dame’s gigantic knock is that Mike Brey has not had tournament success. The Irish haven’t made it out of the first weekend since 2003. That’s also the only time ND has made it to the Sweet 16 since 1987. Notre Dame are 2-6 their last six trips. This certainly looks like the best Irish team to make a run in years. While I personally think ND will make a run, I do wonder if they will get a little tight in a close second round game.

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What are the most and least likely tournament games between the 5 Indiana schools?

1. Notre Dame vs Butler – Round of 32
2. Notre Dame vs Indiana – Sweet 16
3. Butler vs Indiana – Sweet 16
4. Notre Dame vs Purdue – Elite 8
5. Butler vs Purdue – Elite 8
6. Indiana vs Purdue – Elite 8
7. Purdue vs Valpo – Sweet 16
8. Notre Dame vs Valpo – Elite 8
9. Butler vs Valpo – Elite 8
10. Indiana vs Valpo – Elite 8

Is there a case for anyone besides Kentucky?

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But really. When every caveat to beating a team is that they play the worst game of their season and you play your best, that’s not really much of a case. The best case would be Notre Dame. Someone that could hit a lot of threes and have a great offensive showing. The Irish have a defensive deficiency that would probably be taken advantage of though. Kansas has already been destroyed by Kentucky. The other teams, besides Texas really, don’t have the talent to match up.

How do the teams stack up efficiency wise?

Glad you asked. To not overwhelm with stats, here are the four factors, key efficiency stats: offense, defense, effective field goal percentage (weighs 3s), turnovers and offensive rebounding percentage.

Offensive Efficiency

1. 122.2 – Notre Dame
2. 119.7 – Kentucky
3. 116.6 – Indiana
4. 113 – Wichita St
5. 111.2 – West Virginia
6. 110.8 – Kansas
7. 110.3 – Texas
8. 109.8 – Buffalo
9. 108.5 – Maryland
10. 108.5 – Purdue
11. 107.5 – Butler
12. 106.7 – Cincinnati
13. 106 – Northeastern
14. 104.1 – New Mexico St
15. 103.8 – Valparaiso
16. 100.9 – Manhattan
17. 95.6 – Hampton

eFG %

1. 58.6 – Notre Dame
2. 54.6 – Indiana
3. 54.6 – Northeastern
4. 51.8 – Kentucky
5. 51.4 – Valparaiso
6. 51 – New Mexico St
7. 50.9 – Maryland
8. 50.7 – Purdue
9. 50.7 – Wichita St
10. 50.4 – Cincinnati
11. 49.7 – Manhattan
12. 49.4 – Texas
13. 49.3 – Kansas
14. 49.1 – Butler
15. 48.6 – Buffalo
16. 46.6 – West Virginia
17. 45.8 – Hampton

Turnover %

1. 14.4 – Notre Dame
2. 15.2 – Wichita St
3. 16.4 – Buffalo
4. 16.4 – Kentucky
5. 17.1 – Indiana
6. 17.4 – Butler
7. 18.4 – Maryland
8. 18.7 – West Virginia
9. 19.1 – Kansas
10. 19.1 – Valparaiso
11. 20 – Purdue
12. 20 – Texas
13. 20.5 – Hampton
14. 21 – Manhattan
15. 21.3 – Cincinnati
16. 21.4 – Northeastern
17. 21.9 – New Mexico St

Offensive Rebounding %

1. 40.9 – West Virginia
2. 40.4 – Kentucky
3. 39.5 – New Mexico St
4. 38 – Texas
5. 37.3 – Cincinnati
6. 36.2 – Purdue
7. 35.5 – Butler
8. 35.3 – Indiana
9. 35 – Valparaiso
10. 34.9 – Kansas
11. 34.8 – Wichita St
12. 34.7 – Buffalo
13. 32.8 – Hampton
14. 31 – Manhattan
15. 29.6 – Northeastern
16. 29.2 – Maryland
17. 28.1 – Notre Dame

Defensive Efficiency

1. 85.8 – Kentucky
2. 90.5 – Kansas
3. 91.7 – Butler
4. 92.9 – Wichita St
5. 93.3 – Cincinnati
6. 93.3 – Texas
7. 94.3 – Valparaiso
8. 94.6 – Maryland
9. 95.4 – West Virginia
10. 97.1 – Purdue
11. 97.6 – New Mexico St
12. 98.5 – Buffalo
13. 99.5 – Manhattan
14. 99.7 – Notre Dame
15. 102.3 – Hampton
16. 102.4 – Northeastern
17. 104.7 – Indiana

eFG%

1. 39.7 – Kentucky
2. 42.2 – Texas
3. 44.4 – Kansas
4. 44.5 – Cincinnati
5. 44.9 – Valparaiso
6. 45.2 – Wichita St
7. 45.4 – Maryland
8. 45.5 – Purdue
9. 45.9 – New Mexico St
10. 46.5 – Hampton
11. 46.9 – Butler
12. 48 – Manhattan
13. 48.1 – Notre Dame
14. 48.5 – Buffalo
15. 49.6 – Northeastern
16. 50.5 – Indiana
17. 52.6 – West Virginia

Turnover %

1. 28.2 – West Virginia
2. 24.1 – Manhattan
3. 21.8 – Kentucky
4. 21.6 – Wichita St
5. 20.5 – New Mexico St
6. 20.3 – Cincinnati
7. 20.1 – Hampton
8. 19.8 – Buffalo
9. 19.3 – Butler
10. 18.6 – Valparaiso
11. 17.8 – Purdue
12. 17.5 – Kansas
13. 17.3 – Maryland
14. 17.4 – Notre Dame
15. 16.1 – Indiana
16. 15.6 – Northeastern
17. 14.2 – Texas

Offensive Rebounding %

1. 24.9 – Butler
2. 25.6 – Northeastern
3. 27 – Wichita St
4. 27.6 – Valparaiso
5. 29 – Texas
6. 30.4 – Maryland
7. 30.4 – Buffalo
8. 30.7 – New Mexico St
9. 30.9 – Hampton
10. 31.1 – West Virginia
11. 31.1 – Purdue
12. 31.2 – Indiana
13. 31.6 – Notre Dame
14. 31.6 – Kentucky
15. 31.8 – Cincinnati
16. 31.8 – Kansas
17. 33.7 – Manhattan