New Look Tribe Sees Attendance Spike

Much attention has been paid to the Indians recent roster moves, particularly the trade of Nick Swisher and Michael Bourn to Atlanta for Chris Johnson, and the subsequent offensive increase, but there has been another increase that went less noticed. Playing against the Twins and Yankees for six games, the Indians had their highest attended home stand of the season. Below is a break down of the average attendance and temperature for the nine home stands so far this season.

The Indians went 4-2 during the most recent stand, continuing to debunk the ridiculous theory that they play poorly in front of large crowds, making it tied with the one starting on May 22nd against the Reds and Rangers for the most successful this season. It was a very stark contrast in particular from their last stand in July when the Indians lost six in a row against Chicago and Kansas City, effectively ending any real hopes at play-off contention.

Normally, a small attendance blip wouldn’t be worthy of commenting on, but in this case, the fact that it came directly after the Indians had to temper down their play-off dreams makes it noteworthy. There were some other events going on through the week as well, so the first thing is to try to discern where much of that bump came from.

Based on personal records from 2007, the Indians have averaged about 21,000 fans per game and they have seen a 7% increase over average attendance in August overall. Based on their season average of 18,514 per game, just given that more fans go to baseball games in August than April through June, an average of just under 20,000 could be expected for all August games.

Temperature enters into it as well (all baseball fans are “fair weather” fans in the end) as the Indians have averaged a 9% increase in fans when the temperature is between 71° and 80° with slight decreases in any range above or below. Much of the increase in attendance in July and August is likely due to the better weather, so they can’t be completely separated. Even so, five of the last six home stands fit within the 70° range and outside of the first two stands, the weather really hasn’t been all that bad in North East Ohio.

Finally, there is the bump from promotional events, but these are even harder to separate from the rest. Because promotions almost always happen on weekends, there is an automatic boost in numbers (about 5,000 more fans on average have shown up for Friday and Saturday games since 2007) and the promotional increase isn’t particularly significant above that.

Further proof that big promotions don’t essentially mean big crowds can be found in games from earlier in 2015. The Indians have given away jerseys, bobble heads and even a statue, yet no game between Opening Day and August 7th saw a crowd larger than 30,000. Rock N’ Blast, the Indians biggest fireworks shows of the season generally draw a bigger crowd than normal, but even looking back to 2014 they didn’t jump above the 30,000 despite the fact that the Indians were still well in play-off contention, just six games behind Kansas City on August 15th.

This may be the long way around, but based on all the date I have recorded since 2007, this sudden increase is not within the normal variance. Even the Yankee bonus, which is considerable (as much as a 35% increase) doesn’t account for the fact that the most attended games of the series were against the Twins on Friday and Saturday.

What has changed in recent days is a change of perspective. Fans would rather see a team that is expected to lose win a game than see a team that is expected to win, lose. The players have also seemed more relaxed since the six game losing streak and subsequent trade to Atlanta. While the current roster may not be as talented on paper as it was earlier in the year, there is no question that they are giving a complete effort and the fans, in general, appreciate that.

While there is no definitive reason for any increase or decrease in attendance, this home stand was a very good sign for the Indians. The first two games marked the first time the Indians had sold more than 30,000 tickets in consecutive games since June of 2013 and the first time the stadium was at or greater than 85% capacity since July of 2012.

Whether or not this will be a trend continuing up or a small blip on the RADAR is yet to be seen. After Rock N’ Blast weekend last year, the Indians had two extended home stands and less than 13,000 fans showed up for eight of the 16 total games. Only once was there a game above 24,000 as a Michael Brantley bobblehead (23k for this day against Detroit in 2014, 31k against the Twins in 2015), dollar dogs, fireworks and free shirts weren’t enough to keep the crowds coming in September.

This year, there are three home stands left. There will be bobbles (get Terry Francona‘s scooter on 9/12), fire works and hot dogs for a dollar each. There will also be a team devoid of Brandon Moss, David Murphy, Swisher and Bourn filled with young stars looking to impress for 2016. The fans’ appearance, or lack there-of, in these games will go a long way in telling what they really want to see. If the numbers dwindle back to 2014 rates, maybe there is nothing to get excited about, but if the Indians can sustain attendance numbers near or above 20,000, particularly on non-promotional days, it would be great evidence that the fan base has made as big of a change in attitude as the players themselves.