To illustrate how impactful Tulsa’s baffling beat-down from Florida Atlantic was, I wouldn’t have written this column if Tulsa was 2-1.
Alas, after the Golden Hurricane’s destruction by a team that appeared to have major issues of its own, it’s obvious Tulsa (1-2, 1-0 AAC) has digressed substantially from its Week 1 win over Tulane.
Tulsa has a much needed bye week to rest and diagnose the team’s major concerns before it faces four opponents who will dictate where this team is headed.
When Tulsa shocked the Green Wave in double-overtime — with the offense shining like a new toy — the only games that came to mind as crucial for the remainder of 2014 were games against the conference’s elite (Cincinnati, ECU, and UCF). If Tulsa could upset one of the major AAC title contenders, it would be successful.
Now Tulsa must upset a few teams that appeared winnable a couple weeks ago. Self-inflicted wounds and unexpected improvement by certain teams (Temple) shot down the level of optimism Tulsa fans and outsiders had for this season.
How the Golden Hurricane perform in the next four games, and I mean in the win/loss column, will more than likely indicate if this team is headed for a bowl game, or the couch, at season’s end.
Let’s break it down the Golden Hurricane’s next four matchups.
Texas State (1-1)
Key Stats
Total Offense — 569 yards/game
First Downs — 31/ game (No. 2 nationally)
Game Outlook
Texas State beat lowly FCS Arkansas-Pine Bluff in Week 1 65-0. It’s difficult to know if a team is good after it beats an also-ran FCS team, but the Bobcats did show excellent balance on offense (319 yards passing, 378 yards rushing). Week 2 ended with a tough 35-21 loss to Navy. The game wasn’t close til the fourth quarter, primarily because Navy’s superior rushing attack did all its damage in the first-half. However, even in a loss, the Bobcats recorded over 400 yards of total offense.
Texas State’s quarterbacks completed 74 percent of their passes in the first two contests — a troubling stat for a Tulsa secondary that is allowing opponents to complete 60 percent of their passes.
This game is Tulsa’s most winnable in the next four, primarily because we don’t know a lot about Texas State from a two-game sample, one game being against an FCS team. If the home crowd at Chapman Stadium hasn’t dropped its support, the Golden Hurricane can channel the momentum gained from playing at home and notch an imperative victory.
At Colorado State (2-1, 0-1 MWC)
Key Stats
Total Offense — 512 yards/game
Yards per play — 7.3 (13th nationally)
Game Outlook
If Tulsa defeats Texas State, this game becomes the next “must-win” for the Golden Hurricane’s bowl hopes. Beating the Rams in Fort Collins, Colo., is a strenuous task for Tulsa to undertake.
The Rams have looked solid in wins over Pac-12 rival Colorado and FCS UC Davis. The win over UC Davis isn’t as revealing, but handily defeating a Colorado team that has had four years to fill its roster with Pac-12 caliber recruits better illustrates this team’s capabilities.
[youtube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b_BtZ_MbkXQ?list=UUjo6qGSNLTH50heHy4dZvrw]The Rams arguably shined brightest in their loss to Mountain West power and annual Cinderella, Boise State. Colorado State outscored the Broncos 14-0 in the fourth quarter to scare the boys in blue as the game concluded.
For Tulsa to have a shot at beating Colorado State on the road, quarterback Dane Evans must reconnect with receiver Keevan Lucas for big plays and the offense must fix its turnover problems. The Rams are No. 110 nationally in total defense, so an opportunity will be there for Tulsa’s offense to score points. The defense … well, let’s just say Tulsa’s offense must do the heavy lifting to have a chance in this one.
Will it be enough to win away from home against a team that seems to have a better offense then FAU?
During a recent e-mail interview, Tulsa World sportswriter Kelly Hines, who covered Tulsa’s game against the Owls, said this team doesn’t look capable of beating CSU at the moment. Hines’ lack of confidence in Tulsa is concerning considering her close-knit relationship with the team.
At Temple (1-1)
Key Stats
Total Offense — 373 (95th nationally)
Opponent third-down conversation rate — 21 percent
Game Outlook
Judging from the Owls poor offensive numbers, this game would look highly winnable for Tulsa. But if you look closer at the box-scores of Temple’s first two games, you’ll notice that the Owls make up for a lack of flashiness on offense by playing disciplined football.
Temple controlled its game against Vanderbilt in the early-going, then rode QB PJ Walker and a strong rushing attack to victory in the second-half. Navy ran all over the field against Temple, but the Midshipmen’s triple-option attack is impossible to slow down when operated effectively.
Temple proved in its games against Vanderbilt and Navy that it knows how to stop teams on third-down and won’t turn the ball over very often. As of now, the Owls are ranked third in turnover margin at +2.5. Conversely, Tulsa is ranked towards the bottom of the FBS at -2.
Tulsa’s offense should potentially put up yards against Temples 79th ranked defense, but can Tulsa potentially not turn the ball over? This game will be much easier to forecast in the a few weeks. As it currently stands, however, Temple doesn’t show signs of turning the ball over, and its defense shows signs of generating more turnovers. Playing in Philadelphia may also adversely affect the way Tulsa plays.
South Florida (1-2)
Key Stats
Completion Percentage — 36 percent (dead last in FBS)
Total Defense — given up 453 yards/game
Game Outlook
Texas State is Tulsa’s most winnable game in the next four by default. In reality, the final game in this four-game stretch against the USF Bulls may be the most important.
The Bulls looked poor in their five-point win over Western Carolina, and in a 49-17 thrashing at NC State. USF was highly competitive in a seven-point loss to Maryland, but the offense looked inept gaining less than 300 yards and was mostly in the game because the Terps couldn’t hold on to the ball (four lost fumbles).
USF’s quarterback situation is in limbo as 2013 incumbent Mike White injured his arm against Maryland and has looked uninspiring so far this year. The Bulls play a crucial game of their own against UConn on Friday. How it plays against the Huskies will give a better indication of where the team will stand come time to play Tulsa.
Tulsa will face the most important four-game stretch in the Blankenship era, starting with Texas State. Tulsa needs to come out of these next four games with a 3-1 record to give it a legitimate shot at bowl eligibility. With up-and-coming Memphis, Houston, UCF, and new AAC darling East Carolina left to play, Tulsa’s chances for victories in the latter part of the season will be limited.
Unfortunately for the Golden Hurricane, I see 2-2 as the best-case scenario for this team. Tulsa should beat Texas State and USF — although the last time I used “should” referring to a game the Golden Hurricane were thrashed by 29 points. But winning at Colorado State and at Temple in back-to-back weeks is an unrealistic expectation.
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