For the second consecutive season, the road to the Super Bowl runs through Seattle on the NFC side. This year’s NFC Championship will take place at high noon this Sunday, in a game being billed as the league’s best offense against one of the all-time great defenses, taking place in arguably the greatest home field advantage in all of sports. The last time Seattle faced the #1 offense, it ended in a 43-8 demolishing of Denver in the Super Bowl. Green Bay left Seattle with an embarrassing 20 point loss 20 weeks ago, and while much has changed for both teams, much has stayed the same. The one constant, is that Seattle is the NFL’s best team, and the dragon the Packers will have to find a way to slay if they have any hope of bringing the Lombardi Trophy back home this year.
Seattle has virtually every advantage in this game (such as being more efficient at running, tackling, passing, and catching), but there is an ever so slight chance that Green Bay wins this mammoth of a game. One stat in favor of GB’s side of the coin, is that since 2007, the road team has won four times, and all seven contests have been decided by seven points or less. Dreaming of such victory in Seattle is borderline insane, as this feat has occurred just twice in the last three calendar years, you’re more likely to have your wish granted upon a shooting star, than to win here. There’s a mystique to the place, and Green Bay will need all the help it can get to get out alive.
Advantage – Seattle
Seattle has not lost at home in the playoffs under head coach Pete Carroll, and Russell Wilson is 25-2 (.923) overall as a starter at home. Many things go wrong at CenturyLink Field, but they ever so rarely happen to the home team. Balls go in to the wrong hands, tempers flare, hearing is lost, seasons and dreams come to an end. This defense is one of the best of all time, and somehow plays even better in front of their home crowd. They feed off of the fans’ energy, and vice-versa. Here, odd things happen, where even the most careful of players, such as Packers QB Aaron Rogers, can make crucial mistakes in key moments. Though he had just 8 (5 Int’s, 3 fumbles) regular season turnovers, all occurred on the road, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him to gift a possession or two to the opposing side.
Pete Carroll is 2-0 all-time against Mike McCarthy, and all obvious signs point to Carroll being 3-0 against Green Bay and 6-0 at home in the playoffs. Rodgers and McCarthy have a respectable 3-2 record on the road in the postseason, but they have yet to prove they can hang with the world champions on their home turf, let alone win a game, especially with a Super Bowl berth on the line.
Much of Seattle’s game plan is built on the legs of Marshawn Lynch, and Green Bay’s 23rd ranked rushing defense is going to have plenty of trouble slowing Seattle’s league-best 172.6 yards per game. The Seahawks went 9-2 this season in games in which Lynch carried the ball at least 15 times, and also went 4-1 in games Lynch broke the 100 yard mark. Green Bay could study the two losses that fall under both of those stats and attempt to find something to use against them, however since none of them came after the team re-dedicated itself to winning the Seattle way in week 12, they might as well burn the film and try something new: tackling, which was certainly not their strong point in a 110 yard, 2 score masterpiece Lynch showcased in week one.
Slight Advantage – Green Bay
You won’t find many aspects of this game that favor the underdog Packers, but the spot where they will find one, if there is a silver lining here, could be with an air strike.
Green Bay finished as the 8th ranked passing offense, which doesn’t sound great going against Seattle’s #1 ranked passing defense, which is what makes this the matchup to watch, as long as the offense is willing to be daring, while actively avoiding being foolish.
The Packers will field arguably the NFL’s best receiving duo, as Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb combined for 2,806 yards and 25 touchdowns this season. When the defense schemes to take away one of them (or if McCarthy again maroons Jarret Boykin on Richard Sherman’s side of the field and they are all well-covered in spite of this), Eddie Lacy and Davante Adams have made defenses pay for ignoring them in passing situations. Adams has been inconsistent throughout the year and Lacy seemingly has a playing-time related injury each week, but if all of Rodgers’ options are physically and mentally ready, he should be able to consistently get rid of the ball quickly and put it in to the hands of a deadly play-maker in space.
Rodgers’ 38:5 touchdown to interception ratio was two scores and one fewer interception of being record shattering as no passer has ever tossed 40 touchdowns with fewer than 5 interceptions. Four years ago, Rodgers had an NFL-best 45:6 ratio in his MVP season of 2011, and his accuracy is unrivaled as he holds the record for best career interception percentage. Those numbers will be tested against a Seattle secondary that allows, well, not much to get by. With averages of just 185 passing yards allowed and at least 2 sacks and 1 turnover per game, Seattle knows how to put the clamps down. But don’t write off Green Bay just yet, as the Seahawks also allowed an average completion percentage of 61.7% and at least 1 passing touchdown, so there could be some mighty big plays to be had through the air, as highly unlikely as that sounds, and would be even more unbelievable to witness.
The Great Unknown
There are some aspects of this game that do not have a clear advantage to either side. Green Bay finished the season with the 10th ranked passing defense, allowing just 226.4 yards and a completion percentage of 59%, while picking off 18 passes and averaging 2.5 sacks per game. Seattle’s 27th ranked passing offense could find themselves in trouble if they get in to obvious passing situations, however Wilson has proven this season that he is an underrated runner when plays break down, so while the Seahawks may not have a proven playmaker in the passing game, Wilson frequently makes defenses pay when they turn their backs to him and open the field for easy yards. If Wilson starts chewing up cheap yards early, Clay Matthews or another necessary cog in the GB defense may be forced to spy him frequently and that could open up other options down the field. And this contest could get ugly very quickly.
Seattle’s offensive line allowed 12 more sacks all season than Green Bay’s, so there’s reason to believe that Rodgers finally finds himself behind a line willing and able to protect him, even against a team perhaps better than any at applying pressure and speeding up that internal clock. Rodgers will need all of the protection he can get, as even though he is usually one of the most deceptively mobile passers in the league, his mobility appears to be hampered, if not completely shot. Defensive ends Michael Bennett and Cliff Avril will pin their ears back if they smell blood, and few if any offensive lines can stop that onslaught, so this will be a true test of the Packers’ big men.
Verdict
It will be old school against new school, another opportunity for Seattle to beat one of the best passing teams with an age and battle tested theory that aggressiveness and physicality can beat speed and finesse. While I don’t expect Green Bay to lie down for the defending champs, they aren’t well rounded enough on offense to keep Seattle guessing and will make enough mistakes to cost them the game. Wilson and Lynch will drain the clock and get key first downs, and put enough points on the board to keep Rodgers from fighting all the way back from an early hole.
Plain and simple, Seattle is a different team at home than they are on the road, even if the numbers don’t do their home field advantage justice. At home, they average 26 points per game with the 12th man on their side, and give up just 15 points to the opposing side. Away from their fans, they average 23 points and allow 16 to their opposition, meaning they hold at least a touchdown advantage on the scoreboard, whenever, wherever, against whoever.
Green Bay, on the other hand, has been a much better team at home than they are on the road. At Lambeau field, the offense scores 33 points per game, and the defense holds opponents to 20 points per game. On the road, the entire team is practically another team entirely, scoring just 21 points and allowing an average of 23 points, which would help explain their 4-4 record away from Lambeau. Buffalo, Detroit, and Seattle are similar teams in terms of build, and Green Bay had trouble with all three this year. When teams can rush four and drop seven in to coverage, it severely changes what the offense can accomplish, and usually puts them on the ropes early.
Even with a fully healthy Rodgers, I’d give a 70-30 edge to Seattle in this one. With Rodgers on one good leg, I’d raise that to an 80-20 edge. “Any Given Sunday” still applies so of course Green Bay has a fighter’s chance, but they’ll be on the ropes early and knocked out by the third round/quarter, even if the score looks closer than the game really was.
FINAL SCORE – Seattle 27 – Green Bay 20
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