With a win last Sunday over Pittsburgh, Seattle put themselves back in the race for a NFC Wild Card playoff spot. Seattle travels to NFC North leading Minnesota this week, and with some added help from division and conference rivals, Seattle has the chance for a potentially big swing in conference playoff positioning. The current playoff landscape looks like this, with Seattle holding a thin edge over Atlanta for the #6 and final seed:
#1 Carolina 11-0 – South leader
#2 Arizona 9-2 – West leader
#3 Minnesota 8-3 – North leader
#4 Washington 5-6 – East leader
#5 Green Bay 7-4
#6 Seattle 6-5
With a win over the Vikings on Sunday, Seattle would advance to a 7-5 record, and put them at least two games in front of the Rams in the division, and would be holding pace or better with current playoff hopefuls Atlanta and Green Bay.
Arizona plays St. Louis this week, and Seattle should be on the Rams’ side this week, as a loss for Arizona and a win for Seattle would put them just two games behind 9-win Arizona, and still keep them at least two games in front of St. Louis with four weeks remaining in the regular season. With a win for Seattle on Sunday and a win for Green Bay on Thursday, it would also put Minnesota in second place in the NFC North, and Seattle would hold the head to head tiebreaker if the Vikings’ final regular season record is even with Seattle’s. The win would also grant Seattle an additional win in their conference record, maintaining a one game distance with Atlanta if the Falcons beat Tampa Bay on Sunday, and that lead would extend to two games if Seattle wins while Atlanta loses.
Given that Atlanta began the season 5-0 and has since gone 1-5, the chance that they will drop another one this week is high, and there is an infinitesimal chance they catch seemingly unbeatable Carolina in the South, so the Falcons are the most likely Wild Card representative from the South if there is going to be one. Both the Falcons and Saints could turn it around, but injuries and poor play would say otherwise, so the chance exists that the South could send just one team to the postseason. There just isn’t reason to believe that the NFC East is going to produce two playoff teams this season as not one team in the division has a winning record, so given the current playoff landscape, Seattle really only needs to worry about keeping pace with Minnesota and Green Bay while they also try to catch Arizona.
Obviously the best case scenario is that Seattle wins their next five games and takes the division and even has a shot at a first round bye, but that’s not likely to happen. After travelling to Minnesota this week, the Seahawks travel to Baltimore, then host the Browns and Rams, before their regular season finale in Arizona. All of those games are winnable, but if the Seahawks want to catch Arizona and stay ahead, they probably need to win them all, and the odds on that happening are not favorable.
Arizona’s schedule is slightly tougher, as they travel to St. Louis this week, then host the Vikings, then travel to Philadelphia, before hosting their final two games against Green Bay and Seattle.
The good news in all of that, is that Seattle faces just two teams with winning records the rest of the way, while Arizona faces three.
Green Bay and Minnesota have tough remaining schedules as well, as the Vikings host Seattle this week, then travel to Arizona next week, host the Bears and Giants the following weeks, then close out the season at Green Bay. The Packers travel to Detroit this week, then host the Cowboys, then travel to Oakland and Arizona, before a season ending showdown at home against Minnesota.
Atlanta appears to be the odd man out in this situation, as they are already on a slide, and this week they start a three game road trip at Tampa Bay, then at Carolina, then at Jacksonville, before hosting Carolina and New Orleans to close out their regular season. Given their struggles and their remaining games, I don’t like Atlanta’s chances to get beyond 8-8 this year, despite their 5-0 start.
I do like Seattle’s chances to go at least 3-2 over their last 5 games and they may even go 4-1, but there is a good chance Arizona goes at least 3-2 in that same span (which includes a potential loss to Seattle), and Minnesota and Green Bay could both be 3-2 in that same span as well.
As long as Seattle continues to win, none of that will matter much more than deciding which seed they do get, and assuming St. Louis, Atlanta, New York Giants, and New Orleans continue to struggle, the Seahawks are as good as in with only 6 teams carrying winning records in the NFC.
A 10-6 overall record all but promises them a spot, and a win over Minnesota this Sunday would go a very long way in making sure that happens.
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