During the course of the 2015 NFL Preseason, Oregon Sports News will feature a weekly season preview of one of the four teams housed by the NFC West. Each weekly breakdown will feature one of the division mates (previews to be scheduled based on ascending order of the 2014 division standings) with roster and coaching overviews, where to place expectations, and as they embark on their 2015 campaigns, a prediction for each team, some more bold than others.
Click here for the San Francisco 49ers preview
Click here for St. Louis Rams preview
Many things changed on that third and 7 in November– Through their first 8 games of the 2014 season, Arizona looked like an elite NFL team, Carson Palmer’s 11 touchdowns to 3 interceptions made him one of the league’s most efficient QB’s, and the team appeared to be on the fast track to steal the division crown from 5-3 Seattle, though their two inner-division showdowns were still to come.
For the Arizona Cardinals, November 9th, 2014 was the perfect storm smack dab in the middle of what had the potential to be a near-perfect season.
Facing third and seven from the St. Louis 28 yard line while trailing the Rams 14-10, Palmer stood at the 34 yard line while lined up in the shotgun behind five linemen and one tight end with over eleven minutes remaining in the contest. Palmer calmly assessed the Rams defense across from the four-wide package the Cardinals were in, waved hand signals at his receivers and linemen, and took the snap. As he dropped back to the 37, his five linemen dug in to block four Rams pass rushers while his tight end leaked out on a route. With both the right tackle and right guard working on Rams defensive end William Hayes, no one was left to cover blitzing Rams safety Mark Barron, who ran around Palmer’s distracted linemen untouched and rapidly approached Palmer on his right side. Palmer initially avoided Barron by taking three quick steps forward to the 34 yard line, but Barron quickly adjusted and ran back to Palmer.
With a wild diving attempt, Barron made just enough contact to grab Palmer’s shoulder, and as Palmer adjusted his stance to avoid being sacked, his right knee buckled, and the next moment he was on the turf clutching his knee.
Call it bad luck, call it poor planning, call it poor blocking, call it what you want. Regardless of the labels assigned to the moment, Palmer was finished, and although no one wanted to openly admit it at the time, so was Arizona.
After losing Palmer, the team attempted to rally behind backup QB’s Drew Stanton and Ryan Lindley, but the Cardinals managed just a 4-4 record the rest of the way, losing both divisional matchups with Seattle as well as the division crown itself. The season officially ended in Carolina as the Cardinals lost to the Panthers in the Wild Card round by a score of 27-16.
2015 provides a fresh start, and quite a few uphill battles –
It’s only the preseason, but so far in brief appearances in the Cardinals first two exhibition games, Palmer is 7 of 11 for 165 yards and a touchdown. Not bad for a 35 year old ten months removed from major knee surgery, and if he can keep that production going when the games matter, there may be a lot of smiling fans in the desert, but don’t take that to the bank, not just yet.
All-pro guard Mike Iupati was slated to help keep Palmer up-right after leaving the rival 49ers, but is currently rehabbing from knee surgery of his own and could miss the first 2-4 weeks of the regular season. First round selection DJ Humphries has struggled a lot in limited action, and early word from head coach Bruce Arians is that Humphries is fighting for second best at any O-line spot he competes for.
Third round pick RB David Johnson has had mixed reviews so far, but he should challenge fragile starting RB Andre Ellington for touches, as might recent signee and veteran sprinter Chris “CJ2K” Johnson. Second year slot receiver John Brown appears ready to take the next step in the “T.Y. Hilton” role in Arians’ offense, and new TE Jermaine Gresham gives Palmer a big and athletic body over the middle for those must-have plays.
Starting wideouts Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Floyd will have to see if they can find the blueprint for getting separation from NFL corners, something they struggled with in 2014 and led to too many missed opportunities. Floyd is still recovering from with three dislocated fingers, and is hopeful to play in week one. Fitzgerald is healthy at the moment but has had lingering hamstring problems for years, and hasn’t had 1,000 receiving yards in one season since 2011. There is talent in this offense, but one must wonder just how far Palmer and his rebuilt knee can carry them. Rookie 5th round WR J.J. Nelson is one of the fastest players in the league, and his youth and electric speed could be a real threat to either of Palmer’s veteran targets if they continue to show lead feet on the perimeter.
The defense is a lot of familiar faces but there are some changes so we’ll see if they can put together the same numbers that made this one of the league’s most respected units in 2014. CB Antonio Cromartie, DT Darnell Dockett, and LB Larry Foote are all departed, as is former defensive coordinator Todd Bowles.
New DC James Bettcher won’t have an easy go for his first time as a NFL coordinator, but CB Patrick Peterson and FS Tyrann Mathieu should be able to keep the secondary up to snuff, and with 15 other defensive backs currently on the roster before teams have to announce final cuts, the veterans defensive backs and their new coordinator should have ample talent to pluck two other starters from and get them playing the “Cardinal way”.
It’s going to be tough but there is a chance this team still has enough in the tank to be relevant for one more year at least after two seasons toying with climbing the NFC ladder. Palmer has had surgeries to his throwing elbow and his right knee three times in the last decade, so you have to wonder how much punishment he can handle if his blockers don’t gel in to a tight unit early. He only took nine sacks through ten weeks last season, so there’s reason to have concern if he takes even double the amount of hits.
This year, Palmer is a year older, he’ll be a little slower, and he’ll have at least one new lineman to work with, while also developing rapport with a new TE, and trying to get the most out of two veteran receivers with separation anxiety and helping the development of two young speedsters who lack the size to play the perimeter. And the thought has to cross his mind if his defense can still hold opponents to an average of just under 19 points per game. Not exactly a stress free job, if ever there was one.
It will be difficult for Arizona and their fans to hear, but it is quite possible that the team peaked in 2014. Palmer was a year younger, they had a solid offensive line, two of the best cover corners in the league, a capable trio of receivers, a rabid front seven, and this team-wide belief that they were capable of beating anyone.
Do they still have that confidence while dealing with so much change? With the Seahawks and Rams returning two of the NFL’s most talented defenses, two offenses ready to break out of two very predictable run-first schemes, and both housing one of the youngest rosters in the league; I wouldn’t hold my breath that the Cardinals and their mixture of aging vets and inexperienced youth can keep up.
Palmer and company might surprise and pull a rabbit out of their hat, but the early signs point to a season-long up and down struggle as the Seahawks and Rams pull away in the race to the division crown.
Prediction: 8-8, 3rd in NFC West, miss playoffs
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