During the course of the 2015 NFL Preseason, Oregon Sports News will feature a weekly season preview of one of the four teams housed by the NFC West. Each weekly breakdown will feature one of the division mates (previews to be scheduled based on ascending order of the 2014 division standings) with roster and coaching overviews, where to place expectations, and as they embark on their 2015 campaigns, a prediction for each team, some more bold than others.
Click here for St. Louis Rams preview
Panic Like It’s 2003 – For a franchise that was in the Super Bowl as recently as January of 2012 and in the conference championship game for three consecutive seasons from 2011-13 under former head coach Jim Harbaugh, things look bleak this year, to say the least. The climb out of the dark hole of irrelevancy and all the way back to the top of the mountain came away without a Super Bowl trophy, and the tumble back down will be really, really bumpy.
Harbaugh’s departure did not come as a big surprise, but also gone are offensive coordinator Greg Roman, defensive coordinator Vic Fangio, MLB Patrick Willis, MLB Chris Borland, DE Justin Smith, DE Aldon Smith, CB Chris Culliver, CB Perrish Cox, RB Frank Gore, WR Michael Crabtree, WR Stevie Johnson, G Mike Iupati, and RT Anthony Davis.
Most teams have to deal with losing a combination of talented players and/or coaches each year, but to lose 10 starters and head coach and both coordinators? I’m certain there is not a team in the league prepared to handle such a significant loss.
Such a change in less than one season is nearly unheard of. The last time the 49ers went through something even resembling this big of a change was more than a decade ago, and took place over a three year span. That roster and staff shake-up occurred back in 2003, when head coach Steve Mariucci was fired following a disagreement with then-GM Terry Donahue. Mariucci was coming off a 10-6 season, with four winning seasons and four playoff berths in six seasons, while overseeing a massive changing of the guard that included the HOF QB-WR duo of Steve Young and Jerry Rice giving way to Jeff Garcia and Terrell Owens.
The 49ers lost their entire identity as they fired both Mariucci and his replacement Dennis Erickson, and during the same time saw the departures of offensive coordinator Greg Knapp, defensive coordinator Jim Mora, QB Jeff Garcia, WR’s Jerry Rice, Terrell Owens, JJ Stokes, and RB Garrison Hearst.
During the years that separated Mariucci’s last year with the team and Harbaugh’s first, the 49ers did not record a single winning season and fired two additional head coaches in Mike Nolan and Mike Singletary.
Humble Beginnings – Now starts the new era and rebuild under head coach Jim Tomsula, who will be in his first season as a NFL head coach after serving as the 49ers defensive line coach from 2007-2014. Prior to joining the SF coaching staff, Tomsula spent 9 seasons working for various teams in NFL-Europe. Following Mike Singletary’s firing in week 16 of the 2010 season, Tomsula served as the interim head coach for the final week of the season, leading the 6-10 49ers to a 38-7 victory over the 5-11 Cardinals, their highest margin of victory on the season.
Tomsula will have an uphill climb with the roster he takes over, and with so many new faces, it’s anyone’s guess as to how long it will take this group to gel on and off the field and on either side of the ball.
It certainly won’t be an easy transition even in the best of circumstances, as San Francisco has the NFL’s 3rd-toughest strength of schedule and the most difficult home schedule league-wide in terms of opponent’s 2014 winning percentage. They also have the 11th most difficult road slate, so no matter whether they are in the confines of Levi Stadium or visiting another stadium, the 49ers will have a rough go of it.
On the offensive side of the ball, QB Colin Kaepernick will have plenty of new names and faces to learn and playing styles to adjust to as RB Reggie Bush, WR Torrey Smith, WR Jerome Simpson, and T Erik Pears are expected to replace departed veterans. He’ll also have his first look at a new system and play caller during his time as a 49er, as he works with freshly promoted offensive coordinator Geep Chryst. A coaching vet with a limited resume running an offense, Chryst has been with SF for five years as their QB coach and the last offense he controlled was in San Diego in 1999-2000, an offense that featured a pair of ineffective QB’s in none other than Jim Harbaugh and Ryan Leaf, and the Chargers finished 28th and 26th in offensive ranking during that two year span under Chryst’s tutelage.
Once a defense feared by any team not named Seattle, this new roster features five open starting spots vacated either through free agency or retirement. Like the offense a leader still exists in LB Navorro Bowman, but with so many spots waiting to be filled, leadership will only get you so far. Darnell Dockett is the only house-hold name taking a spot among those vacant, and he and Bowman will be working among plenty of inexperienced youth as the 49ers drafted 10 rookies and signed another 8 as undrafted free agents to compete for roster positions on either side of the ball.
New defensive coordinator Eric Mangini spent 2014 as the 49ers TE coach, and last took on the role of DC in 2005, when he led the Patriots to the league’s 26th ranking. Since that time, he has been the head coach in two stops in New York and Cleveland, and of the defenses under his watch from 2006-2010, none finished better than 15th.
With a head coach who has virtually no experience in the top job (save for one meaningless game 5 years ago), and two coordinators who haven’t called a play or run a scheme in a decade or more, this year could be messy to say the least. The lack of recent experience on the coaching staff alone would be a sizable problem, but most veteran teams could overcome that with on-field leadership. Unfortunately, there’s also the matter of 9 out of 22 starters to replace, and perhaps only five players on the roster capable of stepping in immediately, only one of which plays defense, where five of the holes are.
The blunt and honest truth is that this team isn’t going to surprise and gel quickly, because at the moment there just isn’t a complete roster, let alone a complete team. There is talent to be sure, but that only gets you so far. This roster needs established NFL talent and leadership, and aside from a handful of players on the 53 man roster, they won’t have it. There isn’t a true number one wideout, the starting running back position appears ready to go to a committee approach, TE Vernon Davis might return to his 2013 form, or he could continue to decline, and two important positions on the offensive line need to be filled, and that is just on offense. On defense, both defensive ends and both starting corners are gone, as is the starting middle linebacker and his understudy. Dockett fills a need on the defensive line and could be a great replacement for Justin Smith, but that still leaves the other side, and during Aldon Smith’s prior legal issues, Ray MacDonald filled in, but is currently out of the NFL and dealing with his own legal issues.
No matter how you slice it, this will be a down year and one that could see San Francisco realistically slide all the way back to the bottom with the top pick in next year’s draft, and many needs to fill with it. In an extremely tough division where Seattle still sits head and shoulders above most of the conference, a Rams team hungry to take the next step, and a Cardinals team still capable of competing but not necessarily among the elite, San Francisco is going to struggle and they will fall and fall hard.
Projection: 4-12 record, 4th in NFC West, miss playoffs
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