NFC Wild Wild West – Seattle, Arizona, And St. Louis Reloaded; 49ers Go Back To The Drawing Board

Buckle up and brace yourselves, the NFC West is going to take things up a notch this season. And for how top to bottom cut-throat competitive this division has been since 2011, that’s really saying something. There may even be extra fireworks this year as the four division housemates carry the 3rd, 4th, 5th, and 6th toughest schedules league-wide. Whoever gets out alive will have earned it, and earned it the hard way.

As training camp rolls on and preseason games kick off this weekend, it’s finally appropriate to look at everything that has changed this offseason, and where you should be hedging your expectations going in to the 2015-16 NFL season. While it may be a little premature to look at predicting the season, it’s never too early to take a glance at how teams are progressing with their new faces and installing any changes in their schemes.

Seattle Seahawks (2014-15 finish: 12-4, 1st in NFC West, lost Super Bowl)

It’s no secret that the only play that anyone is talking about regularly is a certain play-call with goal-to-go and a Super Bowl victory on the line. The good news that can come from that nightmare scenario is that Jimmy Graham is in Seattle now, and that play may very well be the reason why. The Seahawks will now feature a goal line package with three red-zone targets standing 6’5” or taller, as well as the best goal-line back in the business in Marshawn Lynch. Read – no matter the scenario, the Seahawks will be one of the most dangerous teams inside the opponent’s 20 yard line, and every touchdown scored should help the nightmares and shaking go away.

On the offensive side, everyone appears to be happy and ready to break away from the “little brother” role they have played to the defense. Play-calling creativity will be improved with the addition of Graham, who is thought to be the best or second best passing threat in the league with the ball inside the 20. QB Russell Wilson is signed for four more years, and no longer has to focus on proving his worth, he can now return his focus to just going out there and winning on Sundays and expanding his role in the offense with his added weapons.  Marshawn Lynch is under contract and happy, and Super Bowl secret weapon Chris Matthews will be given the opportunity to prove that he deserves playing time along with rookie Tyler Lockett, one or both of which should see pivotal roles in the game plan this year.

The defensive side should be as strong as ever, but there are some potential hurdles. History tells us that elite defenses generally don’t last very long (especially in an era where the NFL is going cuckoo for points and offense) whether the cause is simply attrition or just bright minds in the league finding previously hidden weaknesses or “Achilles heels”. Whichever the case, Seattle has found a way to buck the trend thus far, but faces a tough test yet again this season. The Seahawks D was an up and coming unit in 2011, made the leap in 2012, brought absolute nightmares for offenses in 2013, and then spent too much of 2014 on the canvas to be considered on the same level as 2013, but still head and shoulders above the rest of the league on the defensive side. So what will we see from the Seahawks D in 2015? Only time will tell that tale, but confidence appears to be high in the final stages of the offseason.

Without defensive coordinator Dan Quinn (now head coach of Atlanta), it will be interesting to see if Seattle can absorb losing their DC and the starting corner opposite of Richard Sherman, and rise yet again to the top of the defensive rankings under new DC Kris Richard, who previously served as Seattle’s defensive backs/secondary coach since 2012.

Newcomer Cary Williams, Jeremy Lane, or Tharold Simon will battle for the right to replace former starting corner Byron Maxwell as the newest member of the Legion Of Boom secondary, and speaking of the LOB, the roles of safeties Earl Thomas and Kam Chancellor could be up in the air for the immediate future. Thomas continues to recover from surgery to the shoulder injury he sustained in the NFC Championship Game (early reports indicate Thomas will be ready for week one), while a perfectly healthy Chancellor continues to hold out of training camp while he lobbies for a bigger contract than the $28M extension he signed in 2013. MLB Bobby Wagner seems very happy with his new deal, so at least one previously unhappy cog on the defensive side is settled. DE Michael Bennett, who signed a contract extension just last spring, continues to speak out about his desire for a new deal as well as displeasure over which of his teammates are or aren’t getting paid “fairly”.

Once they get everyone happy and the circus leaves town, this team should be ready to climb the mountain and get back the level they were on in 2013 and 2014, and the scary part is that their offense could be even more effective than they have been, with the defense as frightening as ever.

Arizona Cardinals (2014-15 finish: 11-5, 2nd in NFC West, lost wild card)

Through their first 8 games of the 2014 season, Arizona stood at 7-1, looked like a lock to steal the division crown from Seattle (though they hadn’t played each other yet), and were fresh off a road win over Dallas (who beat Seattle in week 6). Carson Palmer would injure his knee and be lost for the season  the following week in a victory over St. Louis, and behind Drew Stanton and Ryan Lindley, the Cardinals managed just a 4-4 record the rest of the way, losing both divisional matchups with Seattle as well as the division crown itself.

This year is a fresh start and much has changed.

All-pro guard Mike Iupati left stormy skies in SF for the scorching desert and should be a huge help in giving a healthy Palmer more time in the pocket. Third round pick David Johnson should challenge starting RB Andre Ellington for touches, and second year slot receiver John Brown appears ready to take the next step in the “TY Hilton” role in Bruce Arians offense. Jermaine Gresham, one of the better TE’s in the league, gives Palmer a big body over the middle in addition to veteran WR Larry Fitzgerald for those must-have plays, and a big and capable body to block for the running game.

The defense will see some new faces as well, as CB Antonio Cromartie, DT Darnell Dockett, and LB Larry Foote are all in new locales. CB Patrick Peterson and FS Tyrann Mathieu should be able to keep the secondary up to snuff as one of the NFL’s elite, and with 15 other defensive backs currently on the roster, they should have ample talent to pluck two other starters from.

WR Michael Floyd will miss the next month with three dislocated fingers, and still needs to make the jump from potentially elite to established elite. Is he the next Fitzgerald or the next Golden Tate? There’s no wrong answer to that question as both are extremely talented, but the team needs to know if they have a true number one wideout or if they need to keep looking for their go-to receiver.

With so much changeover on the roster and an aging QB in Palmer, it’s anyone’s guess if this team peaked in 2014 or how much farther they can go. A fair question is if any of the younger QB’s behind Palmer are a better long-term option than a banged up 35 year old (Palmer has suffered three torn ligaments in his knee and a torn ligament and tendon in his throwing elbow in the last decade) against the most physically imposing defenses in the league. Fair or not, this team is built around a talented veteran QB to win now, but as Palmer has only been to the playoffs twice and holds a 0-2 overall record, there’s simply no telling if this team has the right pieces in place to compete for a title before Palmer hangs it up, or if they will just be a short-term annoyance for Seattle.

San Francisco 49ers (2014-15 finish: 8-8, 3rd in NFC West, missed playoffs)

SF may as well just change their team nickname to “the departed”, as they will be without former head coach Jim Harbaugh, offensive coordinator Greg Roman, defensive coordinator Vic Fangio, MLB Patrick Willis, MLB Chris Borland, DE Justin Smith, CB Chris Culliver, CB Perrish Cox, RB Frank Gore, WR Michael Crabtree, WR Stevie Johnson, G Mike Iupati, and RT Anthony Davis.

New players on the roster include DT Darnell Dockett, RB Reggie Bush, WR Torrey Smith, WR Jerome Simpson, and T Erik Pears.  The 49ers drafted 10 rookies and signed another 8 as undrafted free agents to compete for roster positions.

New head coach Jim Tomsula will be in his first season as a NFL head coach after serving as the 49ers defensive line coach from 2007-2014. Prior to joining the SF coaching staff, Tomsula spent 9 seasons working for various teams in NFL-Europe. Following Mike Singletary’s firing in week 16 of the 2010 season, Tomsula served as the interim head coach for the final week of the season, leading the 6-10 49ers to a 38-7 victory over the 5-11 Cardinals, their highest margin of victory on the season.

Tomsula will have an uphill climb with the team he takes over, and with so many new faces on the roster and the coaching staff, it’s anyone’s guess as to how long it will take this group to gel on either side of the ball. The simple truth is that this year may have the feeling of an expansion team rather than the championship contender Harbaugh helped to build.

St. Louis Rams (2014-15 finish: 6-10, 4th in NFC West, missed playoffs)

Don’t let their record fool you, this is a young team on the rise. The Rams’ core of talent on defense continues to get stronger, and if the offense is finally ready to make the leap, we’ll see if they can become the contender they’ve been on the cusp of becoming for a couple of years now . New arrivals in QB Nick Foles and RB Todd Gurley should help the offense tremendously after they struggled behind the injury woes of Sam Bradford and the generally ineffective running game by-committee approach that featured as many as five (yes, five)starting running backs in the last two years. Assuming Gurley is the weekly between the tackles grinder with breakaway speed that he is expected to be, Foles should be able to make some big plays with receivers Tavon Austin, Brian Quick, Kenny Britt, and TE Jared Cook.

Foles is a rhythm passer that can get cooking or real ugly at the same speed, and he’ll have to get quality production out of the running game to balance the offense while he gets his feet wet, or this ship might sink before it swims.

Head Coach Jeff Fisher appears to be constructing the strong defense and running game he had for years in Tennessee, and forming it with a dangerous offense led by new OC Frank Cignetti, Jr, who made a name for himself at Fresno State years ago, and we’ll see if he can re-ignite the “Greatest Show On Turf” with the chess pieces GM Les Snead has surrounded him with.

With SF appearing to be headed for a nose dive in the standings and Arizona one major injury to their aging QB from being a “circled win”, the Rams have all of the pieces they need for a wide window of opportunity to challenge the division in general, but to be a thorn in Seattle’s side in particular for years to come, and it will be very interesting to see if this is the year the Rams finally prove that they can endure and win a 16 game fight within the division.

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