After seeing the NFL combine finish with a bang—UConn cornerback’s record-setting broad jump of 12’7” is nothing short of jaw-dropping—one has to wonder what the most athletic performances in NFL Combine history are and where those players project to be.
Using the database compiled by SportsXChange and displayed on NFLDraftScout.com, we can begin the process by looking all the way back to 1999 and grabbing combine scores.
But it’s not as simple as looking at the single-best scores in each category and wowing at them. It would be difficult, for example, to put 156-pound J.J. Nelson on the list this year for running slightly faster than people with 50 pounds on him. Dri Archer’s 178-pound frame was impressive as it sped along the 40-yard dash in 4.26 seconds, but not nearly as much as Darrius Heyward-Bey’s 4.30-second dash at 210 pounds, and neither can match Calvin Johnson’s 4.35-second 40-yard dash at 239 pounds.
Knowing that it is more difficult, and therefore more impressive, to move more weight efficiently and effectively, it is possible to create expected scores at each position once given a player’s body weight.
By: Arif Hasan
There’s a bit more to it than that, though. A gangly player will have a more difficult time making compact movements even at the same weights, but will benefit from reach and length at other events, like the 5-10-5 shuttle (also called “short shuttle,” “20-yard shuttle” and “pro agility”). In theory, that length also makes it more difficult to put together bench press reps, and players with long arms are often excused when they put together mediocre bench press repetitions.
With immutables like frame in mind, we can start looking at the difference in performance between expectation and reality, and rewarding those who outperform expectation the most. So how do you compare “the most” with different frames of reference?
You can’t add the difference in bench press reps (say a powerful prospect with a lot of stamina put up 13 more than expected) to the difference in 40-yard times (where a difference of .35 seconds is enormous)—13.35 doesn’t convey the relationship the two have to the impressiveness of the feat.
You can multiply the average 40-yard dash to the average number of bench press reps, then use that multiplier for the difference, if you felt that resolved the problem. Doing that, a prospect who had a .35-second advantage over other prospects at his height and weight would have an equivalent bench press rep advantage of … 1.6 reps.
It still doesn’t quite work out.
Instead, taking the difference of performance over expectation from the average (in this case, always zero, because as many people will perform as well above the expected as below the expected) and dividing by the “standard deviation” (otherwise the “average distance from the mean for all values”).
The nice thing about doing that is that it produces a standard unit—the z-score—that doesn’t have to be modified any further.
Once we get all the z-scores for all the players, we can average them out and see who has the highest z-score! It’s as simple as that, and it allows us to figure out who had the best combine performances of all time. One final note, however—just like NFL scouts use hand-timed stopwatches in order to get consistency, we’ll be using hand-timed reports as well, because they provide not just more consistency but surprisingly more accuracy when compared to frame-by-frame comparisons. One other benefit is that it allows us to more evenly compare modern times with times before they implemented the half-electronic timing procedure (the start is always hand-timed) at the combine—putting players from 1999 on a level playing field as those from 2015. The Chris Johnson 4.24 40-yard dash everyone quotes is an example of an earlier timing mechanism competing with modern, slower ones.
Because ten-yard splits are more widely-available, we’ll include them in the calculations whenever we can—especially because they don’t correlate nearly as well with the 40-yard dash as you may think, but still measure the kind of explosiveness NFL teams care about, and in a different way than the broad jump or vertical leap.
Despite the fact that we have 3800 names to go through—most of whom did not end up as familiar names in the NFL—you’ll remember some of these names, and usually for good reasons. Though Alvin Dupree and Byron Jones were the most likely to make the list, neither qualified because they did not complete enough workouts. With no 2015 entrants (until Dupree does agility drills in all likelihood), the list remains unchanged for another year.
- Adam Carriker, defensive end, Nebraska (6’6”, 296 pounds)
40-yard dash: 4.90 seconds (expected: 5.08)
10-yard split: 1.60 seconds (expected: 1.73)
Bench press reps: 33 (expected: 23)
Vertical leap: 33.5 inches (expected: 30 inches)
Broad jump: 9’2” (expected: 8’11”)
Short shuttle: 4.18 seconds (expected: 4.64)
Three-cone: 7.06 seconds (expected: 7.60)
Drafted in the first round, Carriker never lived up to the potential that the St. Louis Rams saw in him, and it wasn’t solely because he was a “workout warrior.” Carriker makes this list on the strength of his absurd agility scores, and his bench press and ten-yard split numbers also place him in the top tier.
He was a dominant player for the Nebraska defense, and was their defensive MVP for two consecutive seasons—posting 9.5 (first in the country), then 7.0 sacks in his two seasons as a starter as a 3-4 defensive end, accumulating 33 tackles for loss along the way. With six batted passes, he would have been a good candidate for Football Outsiders’ SackSEER metric which attempts to combine college production (in the form of sacks, batted passes and games missed) with combine data (namely explosion and three-cone scores).
He came from a system that produced successful NFL players (the most notable of which is Kyle Vanden Bosch) and was known for playing with a high motor, and scouts didn’t note a number of significant weaknesses. It could be that a position switch did him in (playing in the Rams’ 4-3 early in his career as a defensive tackle), but he was still the Rams’ rookie of the year.
More likely, injury ended his career, not an untimely rise in the draft as a result of his workout numbers. He tore his labrum in the team’s final game of his rookie year, and recovered near the end of training camp, and part way through the season was moved from nose tackle to the three-technique position, where players primarily pass rush from the interior line.
As soon as he moved there in October, he suffered an ankle injury and missed several weeks and wasn’t fully healthy until the summer of 2009, where he then was victim to another ankle injury only to recover in time for a late preseason game, where he found himself leaving the game—and the season—due to a shoulder injury.
Washington then traded with St. Louis for Carriker with late-round picks and transitioned back to a 3-4 system, where he was about an average player before re-signing in 2012 with Washington only to go down with a quad injury in the second game of the season. After undergoing multiple knee surgeries, the Redskins waived him.
- Lydon Murtha, offensive tackle, Nebraska (6’7” 306 pounds)
40-yard dash: 4.82 (expected: 5.16)
10-yard split: 1.62 (expected: 1.75)
Bench press reps: 25 (expected: 23)
Vertical leap: 35” (expected: 29)
Broad jump: 9’2” (expected: 8’9”)
Short shuttle: 4.34 (expected: 4.70)
Three cone: 7.06 (expected: 7.69)
Not much was expected out of the phenom offensive tackle, also from Nebraska. A seventh-round pick by the Miami Dolphins, Murtha was attempting to make good on his recruiting reputation—the nation’s number one offensive tackle prospect, hailing from Hutchinson, Minnesota.
He certainly had the physical talent; his 40-yard dash and 10-yard split times are phenomenal for a man his size—more like a tight end weighing 250 pounds than a tackle with an additional 50 pounds of bulk. The three-cone number stands out as well, and should have projected to the kind of physical talent a left tackle needs, with the short-shuttle adding to his reputation.
He redshirted his freshman year after a leg injury and started three games at left tackle as a redshirt freshman, playing in nine (primarily playing as a backup, but splitting time with another player at the end of the season when the starter went down). The following year, he played in every game, but still only started as a left tackle in three of those matchups.
In 2007, he was injured for half of the year, but started in the other half, and earned a First-Team All-Big 12 Academic honor, though he never earned more than an honorable mention on the recognized All-Big 12 awards in his redshirt junior or senior years. He was injured once more in that final season and missed a significant portion of that season as well.
After signing with the team that drafted him, Bill Parcells cut him because he didn’t see the attitude he wanted to out of the offensive lineman, and the Detroit Lions worked him out in camp before cutting him. The Dolphins re-signed him that year, but he rarely played—appearing in nine games, starting four of them. He was put on injured reserve before forced into retirement.
- Evan Mathis, offensive guard, Alabama (6’5 1/4”, 304 pounds)
40-yard dash: 4.92 (expected: 5.13)
10-yard split: 1.66 (expected: 1.75)
Bench press reps: 35 (expected: 25)
Vertical leap: 35.5 (expected: 29)
Broad jump: 9’9” (expected: 8’11”)
Short shuttle: 4.16 (expected: 4.68)
Three-cone: 7.39 (expected 7.68)
Mathis had been for some time recognized as the best guard in football, and he’s a perfect fit in Chip Kelly’s system, which relies on quick offensive linemen who can outrun the rest of the country; a reason they drafted Lane Johnson. Mathis’ times and workouts are of course astounding, but the biggest contributors to his place on the list are his short shuttle time and his bench press, though the broad jump doesn’t hurt.
The Alabama native played for his homestate team and started four years at the program, three of them at tackle before a final season at guard and started 47 consecutive games for the Crimson Tide.
Mathis was drafted in the third round by the Carolina Panthers in 2005, but didn’t got the chance to start despite being called by Chris Mortenson “the steal of the draft”. He was called out for struggling early on, but played in 15 games in his second year at right guard. It wasn’t good enough for the Panthers to retain him, and they waived him following the season.
He signed with the Miami Dolphins, where he earned the starting guard spot, losing it one game into the season with a foot injury. After that, he was released in the offseason shortly afterwards, before signing with Cincinnati and starting one of the most dominant stretches of guard play the NFL has seen.
Consistently rated as a top guard by Pro Football Focus, Mathis allowed no sacks in 2009 with the Bengals, though was hurt partway through 2009 and split time with Nate Livings as the season ended (playing a total of over 600 snaps). In 2010, he lost that job to Nate Livings outright despite obviously better plays, evidenced by vastly superior Pro Football Focus scores and scores of fans demanding otherwise. Livings was awful, and allowed the third-most hurries in the NFL that year, with 28.
Mathis signed with the Eagles for one year, immediately won the starting job, and signed a big extension for many more years. Mathis was the top-graded guard by Pro Football Focus for the next three years, and last year ranked second—a cumulative score higher than anyone at any offensive line position and leaving his competitors in the dust. In those four years and 56 games, he allowed four sacks, 21 hits and 51 hurries, or what Paul Fanaika allowed for the Arizona Cardinals in 20 games.
Currently the best guard in the NFL, he’s certainly lived up to his athletic potential.
- Dontari Poe, nose tackle, Memphis (6’3 1/2”, 346 pounds)
40-yard dash: 4.89 (expected: 5.40)
10-yard split: 1.67 (expected: 1.82)
Bench press reps: 44 (expected: 31)
Vertical leap: 29.5 (expected: 26)
Broad jump: 9’9” (expected: 8’0”)
Short shuttle: 4.56 (expected: 4.88)
Three-cone: 7.90 (expected 8.04)
Derided as a draft riser, the Kansas City Chiefs locked down Poe early in the first round and haven’t looked back. The Chiefs banked on the simple notion that a 350-pound man shouldn’t move “that fast” or “that quickly” but Poe outpaces any reasonable predictions and then some, beating his 40-yard dash expectation by an entire half-second, better than anyone in the history of the NFL Combine. He adds to that incredible stamina and shocking quickness, along with strength nearly unmatched in the NFL.
Poe’s job in Kansas City is not to be moved, and he does it well, enabling the rest of the defense not just to fill in the gaps but get to the passer, and may be a bigger reason the Kansas City defense is so stout, despite incredible talents like Derrick Johnson and Justin Houston.
No defensive tackle played as many snaps as Poe last year, and he lapped the field, playing nearly 100 more snaps than the next player. Add to the fact that he does it at a position that is supposed to leave the field early and often (nose tackle), and Poe doesn’t just play more snaps at “defensive tackle” than anyone in the NFL, he plays more snaps for his position than anyone in the NFL.
As a traditional two-gapping body playing head up over the center, the modern NFL would have Poe leave on third down to bring in a coverage defender. Instead, Poe stays where he is, not to be moved for another down. No other player in the NFL is asked to do so much so often as Dontari Poe, and his physical attributes are a big reason why.
A two-star recruit out of Wooddale, Tennessee, Poe played for a lower-tier FCS program in Memphis despite the body (315 pounds) and general movement skills (5.0 40-yard dash) of a four- or even five-star recruit.
As a redshirt freshman, he led the team in tackles for loss despite playing as a two-gapping nose tackle and was third on the team in sacks. He continued this performance throughout his college career, and was recognized by Bruce Feldman’s famous “freaks list” as one of the strongest men in football.
Though initially pegged as someone who struggled in his first training camp, Poe grabbed the starting job and didn’t look back, cashing in on his athleticism and establishing himself as the best two-gap nose tackle in the NFL.
- J.J. Watt, defensive end, Wisconsin (6’5 3/8”, 290 pounds)
40-yard dash: 4.81 (expected: 5.03)
10-yard split: 1.64 (expected: 1.71)
Bench press reps: 34 (expected: 23)
Vertical leap: 37 (expected: 30)
Broad jump: 10’0” (expected: 9’0”)
Short shuttle: 4.21 (expected: 4.60)
Three-cone: 6.88 (expected 7.55)
There’s nothing to say about Watt that hasn’t already been said. Barely recruited, Watt ended up taking a scholarship to be a tight end at Central Michigan before leaving the program because he was promised a scoring position and played only as a blocker. He walked on to the Wisconsin program, where he played his way not just into a scholarship but the starting lineup. Watt finished his second year with the Badgers with 15.5 tackles for loss and 4.5 sacks, along with five batted passes.
In his third year with the team, despite being an interior player, Watt led the team in TFLs, quarterback pressures, blocked kicks and forced fumbles and garnered seven sacks.
At the NFL combine, Watt recorded stunning scores in every category, and though his 40-yard dash wasn’t as impossible as Dontari Poe’s, no one consistently outpaced in every category as much as Watt did, with his “worst” score (the 10-yard split) ranking in the top five percentile of all players after adjusting for weight and height.
Watt was drafted with the 11th pick in the first round of the 2011 draft, and became the best defensive player in the NFL in the process, nearly notching the NFL sack record twice without playing on the edge and batting down more passes in two of his years as a player than any cornerback or safety has passes defensed. He added four receiving touchdowns to his total this last year, with two more touchdowns coming on an interception return and fumble return, respectively.
For the past three years, Watt has been in the conversation as only the third defensive player in NFL history to win the MVP award.
- Vernon Davis, tight end, Maryland (6’3 1/4″, 254 pounds)
40-yard dash: 4.38 (expected: 4.77)
10-yard split: 1.51 (expected: 1.64)
Bench press reps: 33 (expected: 22)
Vertical leap: 42 (expected: 33)
Broad jump: 10’8” (expected: 9’6”)
Short shuttle: 4.17 (expected: 4.41)
Three-cone: 7.00 (expected 7.26)
The fastest runner in the group, Vernon Davis’ 40-yard dash time of 4.38 seconds demolishes the more well-cited Calvin Johnson score of 4.35 by virtue of running it with 20 additional pounds. It is perhaps the 40-yard dash that speaks well to him, but the margin by which he beats expectations in the 10-yard split, bench press, vertical leap and broad jump are equally impressive, and his agility scores aren’t bad either.
With multiple Pro Bowls to his name and an All-Pro selection, the sixth overall pick twice signed deals to become the highest-paid tight end in the NFL, and even led the league in touchdown receptions one year. The difference between he and a player like Jimmy Graham, however, comes in his additionally stellar blocking ability, which until this last year was one of the best in the NFL despite his money coming through the air, not on the ground.
In high school, Davis played receiver, returner, defensive end, linebacker, tight end and safety and was recruited as a four-star player to his local team, Maryland. There, he played in every game as a true freshman and in his sophomore year was second on the team in receptions. In his junior year, he led the team in receptions (51) and led the conference with 871 receiving yards.
Vernon Davis also offers stock shares you can buy, and though they may be on a downward swing, it’s clear the 49ers got what they bargained for with this high-end tight end.
- Mario Williams, defensive end, North Carolina State (6’7”, 295 pounds)
40-yard dash: 4.70 (expected: 5.07)
10-yard split: 1.60 (expected: 1.73)
Bench press reps: 35 (expected: 22)
Vertical leap: 40.5 (expected: 30)
Broad jump: 10’0” (expected: 9’0”)
Short shuttle: 4.37 (expected: 4.63)
Three-cone: 7.21 (expected 7.58)
While Mario Williams’ numbers at a glance look good but not incredible, it’s easy to forget that he showed up to the NFL combine weighing 290 pounds, and so was functionally competing with defensive tackles, not defensive ends, for the scores he received. In that light, his scores seem other-worldly instead of “merely good.”
A five-star recruit from North Carolina, Williams remained home to play for the Wolfpack, and ptu together a stellar career, culminating in a 14.5-sack season and his total career allowed him to grab the third-highest SackSEER score in the metric’s history.
Drafted first overall in a surprise move (many expected the Houston Texans to select Reggie Bush), his initial showing was somewhat poor, but he followed it up with consecutive double-digit sack seasons, seemingly making good on his potential. Though a 9.0 sack season afterwards didn’t prevent him from earning Pro Bowl consideration, missing three games and only recording 8.5 sacks a year later in 2010 did knock him off that list.
After a 5.0-sack season where he only played five games due to injury, the Texans chose not to pursue Williams in free agency, who was not seen as a scheme fit for Wade Phillips’ 3-4 anyway. In Buffalo, he signed the largest deal in NFL history for a defensive player at the time and followed it up with three double-digit sack seasons on a talented defensive line occasionally hampered by its defensive coordinator.
While Williams may not have lived up to his hype or perhaps his draft slot, his career in retrospect (including a 2014 All-Pro selection) doesn’t look bad at all, and many would kill for 91.0 career sacks (and counting). Williams has more or less made good on his athletic potential and still looks like a monster yet to be tamed.
- Aaron Gibson, offensive guard, Wisconsin (6’6”, 386 pounds)
40-yard dash: 5.35 (expected: 5.78)
10-yard split: 1.60 (expected: 1.93)
Bench press reps: 31 (expected: 30)
Vertical leap: 24 (expected: 22)
Broad jump: 9’3” (expected: 7’2”)
Short shuttle: 4.54 (expected: 5.17)
Three-cone: 7.99 (expected 8.48)
Gibson’s appearance on this list may be more statistical quirk than clear fact. As it stands, he’s the only player above 372 pounds, and the only other plays above 368 pounds ran a 5.58 40-yard dash, hardly a wild expectation.
As a result, seemingly average scores look absolutely stellar, and he does deserve credit for doing all of this at an astounding 386 pounds. That sort of ability earned him a longish career, and he played in the NFL for six seasons.
What’s interesting is that Gibson, who apocryphally holds the NFL record for heaviest player, actually slimmed down for the draft. The svelte 386 he showed up with at the NFL combine was lighter than his reported high school weight of 440 pounds and his playing weight in the NFL, 410 pounds.
Health concerns eventually forced him to slim down, but not before he played in several stops at over 400 pounds, and then in the indoor football leagues for a number of years after that. He played for the Detroit Lions, Chicago Bears and Dallas Cowboys before being cut by the Buffalo Bills in training camp in 2006.
Gibson’s broad jump of 9’3” is absolutely mind-boggling for a person of his size, though perhaps the most underrated statistic from the 1999 combine is the fact that he beat his three-cone time by a half-second, when three-cone times normally vary by 1.2 seconds at most. He owns the best scores of any player at two spots: short shuttle and broad jump, where no one ran a faster short shuttle relative to their expectation or jumped further than what their weight and heights would have predicted.
It’s not easy to find contemporary reports on Aaron Gibson, but everything out there indicates he’s healthier now. He will remain an oddity in NFL history, and it should be no surprise that in a list designed around expected scores for weight and height, the heaviest player in history would sneak in at number one.
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