NFL Computerized Power Ranks: Week 1 & Quick Predictions

Over the past 5 years, going back to the old Victoria Times site, after each week in the NFL season we have posted power rankings. In case you haven’t seen it before, unlike most power rankings, which are based mostly on opinion, ours are based on cold, hard numbers. Basically, I came up with a formula that calculates power rankings each week based on record, recent success, strength of schedule, strength of division, offensive and defensive rankings, and the all important turnover ratio. In the past, the ranks have been a pretty decent way to predict games, and usually the Super Bowl champ turned out on top at the end of the year, which is always good. Usually around week 7 or 8, I use it to project playoff positioning, which has worked out better I expected.  For the sake of entertainment, I’m going to do projected playoffs all season this year.

So it is what it is. If nothing else, its a fun way to further analyze the NFL and imagine crazy playoff matchups. What it isn’t is a good way to judge good teams after week 1, as we’ve seen some future bottom dwellers have a nice win in week 1 or 2, only to fall hard.

So as our picture indicates, the Patriots are the #1 team after week 1, after their dominating win over the Titans.  The Eagles are #2, which might seem surprising considering they barely beat the Browns, but there is an important point to keep in mind…Including last year’s playoffs, they currently have the longest winning streak in the NFL!  The Bears are #3 (Thursday’s loss to the Packers is not included), while the Ravens are #4, and the 49ers, Redskins and Chargers are tied for #5.

The bottom 5 are strong contenders to stay near the bottom all season.  (Bills, Titans, Colts, Browns, Bengals).  Luckily for the Browns and Bengals, they play each other his week so something has to happen.  One thing you’ll notice about the ranks below is that they are heavily biased toward the NFC, because the NFC won all cross-conference games in Week 1.

Here are the probably ridiculous playoff projections:

NFC
1st Round Byes: #2 Eagles, #3 Bears
#9 Cowboys @ #5 49ers
#5 Redskins @ #11 Falcons
Top 5 Out: #10 Cardinals, #13 Vikings, #15 Lions, #16 Buccaneers, #17 Giants

AFC
1st Round Byes: #1 Patriots, #4 Ravens
#14 Jets @ #5 Chargers
#12 Broncos @ #8 Texans
Top 5 Out: #22 Chiefs, #24 Jaguars, #25 Steelers, #26 Raiders, #27 Dolphins

Full Ranks:

    Week 1 
1    NE    75.81
2    PHI    74.84
3    CHI    72.98
4    BAL    72.10
5    SF    70.32
6    WAS    70.32
7    SD    70.32
8    HOU    69.92
9    DAL    69.35
10    AZ    68.06
11    ATL    67.90
12    DEN    65.65
13    MIN    64.92
14    NYJ    62.58
15    DET    60.73
16    TB    60.32
17    NYG    48.55
18    GB    38.47
19    CAR    36.29
20    NO    35.97
21    SEA    34.84
22    KC    33.71
23    STL    33.06
24    JAX    32.66
25    PIT    31.61
26    OAK    30.65
27    MIA    28.55
28    BUF    28.39
29    TEN    27.66
30    IND    27.34
31    CLE    26.77
32    CIN    18.87

As an added bonus, here are my quick predictions for this season:

NFC East
1. Cowboys
2. Redskins – Wild Card
3. Giants
4. Eagles

NFC North
1. Packers
2. Lions – Wild Card
3. Bears
4. Vikings

NFC South
1. Falcons – Bye
2. Panthers
3. Saints
4. Buccaneers

NFC West
1. 49ers – Home Field
2. Seahawks
3. Cardinals
4. Rams

AFC East
1. Patriots – Bye
2. Jets – Wild Card
3. Dolphins
4. Bills

AFC North
1. Ravens – Home Field
2. Steelers – Wild Card
3. Bengals
4. Browns

AFC South
1. Texans
2. Titans
3. Colts
4. Jaguars

AFC West
1. Broncos
2. Chargers
3. Raiders
4. Chiefs

Wild Card Playoffs
Packers over Redskins
Lions over Cowboys
Broncos over Jets
Texans over Steelers

Divisional Playoffs
49ers over Lions
Packers over Falcons
Patriots over Broncos
Ravens over Texans

Conference Championships
49ers over Packers
Ravens over Patriots

Super Bowl XLVII
49ers over Ravens (why not pick the Niners?)