Last week I wrote the draft kit column, and hopefully some of that helped you out. And by now you’ve had your fantasy draft, NFL week 1 kicks off in less than a week, and whether you think you drafted well or not, this fantasy football secret will work for you:
DON’T PANIC!
It’s very easy to draft players and then spend the next several hours or days wondering if you made the right choices. It’s even easier to fall in to the trap of trading for a player or players you really wanted, while trading away a player or players you might really need.
Here’s the kicker: no one, not even the players themselves, know how any one player truly will perform this season. Not yet, anyway.
It’s time to go over some easy but often overlooked fantasy football team-management basics. So take a deep breath, relax, put your feet up, and follow these tips to keep your team afloat, and to avoid potentially capsizing your championship.
- It merits repeating: Don’t Panic!
Those moments in between preseason week 4 and regular season week 1 is not the time for rash trades. Maybe you missed out on your super sleeper, or maybe you took a guy early that doesn’t feel like it was the right pick. Or maybe you drafted everyone you should have. Relax. Most of what you are feeling is just game day nerves, and you need to have confidence in your roster, especially before the players even take a snap. Let the players play a couple of weeks, then see where you stand, and make adjustments/propose trades if you really feel changes are still necessary.
Didn’t fill out your roster the way you dreamt it up? That’s fine. If you picked players ranked in the top 30 in the top 3 rounds, the odds say that you have at least 2-3 studs that will help carry you in the early weeks, maybe even all year (barring injury and Josh Gordon-like idiocy, however). Stats may not be sexy, but winning is, and consistent numbers win fantasy matchups, so wait and see what the numbers tell you. Your nerves can lie to you, the stats won’t.
I’m not advising you to sit and wait on a surplus of back-burner backups if that’s what you wound up with, but don’t let that get you in a spot where you lose one or more of your cornerstone players, either. The same grocery store rules apply to fantasy trades: don’t go shopping when you’re hungry, you’re likely to buy what you don’t need and wish you hadn’t gone at all.
- Stick To Your Picks
Numbers play an interesting game in fantasy, and for whatever reason, people like to downplay those numbers. High round picks usually merit big numbers and as long as you didn’t reach for MJD in the 3rd, no one should be sticking their nose up at your picks. Those mid-late round picks, however, seem to elicit lots of jeers from your peers. Some of those same people are going to wish they drafted like you did when the playoffs come around and their big name QB’s and WR’s don’t put up the same stellar numbers they were in the fall.
Take Ryan Mathews, for example:
On average going in the 5-6th rounds, and not a fan favorite. Yet not including week 17 last season, Mathews had eight 100 yard games (rushing/receiving combined), and 7 games with at least one touchdown. Standard leagues send 4 teams to the playoffs, and those start in week 14, so excluding his last two weeks, he had 6 games with 100 yards. If you think you can find another RB that can produce 6-100 yard games in a 13 week season and help you make the playoffs in the 5th round, go right ahead. He had struggles early on, although Mathews only had two games last year that he didn’t produce at least 50 yards (8 and 34 yard stinkers), but averaged 127 combined yards and 1 touchdown in weeks 14 and 15. A player that contributes 18 points a week in the playoffs, If you have a shot at him, take him and don’t look back. If he can even come close to that production regularly this year, you my friend, have yourself a mid-round steal.
Chris Johnson is another interesting prospect. Johnson had 8 games with at least 90 combined yards last year, 8 games with at least 1 touchdown, and 2 games with multiple touchdowns. Rushing and receiving combined, Johnson is a 1,000 yard and 10 TD RB, and with only (9) 1,000 yard/10 TD true rushers in the draft, you need a mid-level back that can get yards and points. In the fantasy playoffs last year, Johnson averaged 80 yards and a touchdown, the same as 16 points. Again, if you can snag him in the 7-8 rounds, take him and don’t look back. Playing in the Jets’ offense this year should garner Johnson even more points, making him a definite mid-late round steal.
I myself have to rely on Mathews and Johnson to carry the rushing load as I was narrowly beaten out for Marshawn Lynch in the first round, and “had” to take Peyton Manning over the best of the second tier backs. If Manning is worth even two thirds of the points he accumulated last year, the drop-off between Lynch and Mathews will not be nearly as significant. Heck, the drop-off between Adrian Peterson and Mathews may not seem that bad with Manning at QB. Having Dez Bryant and Randall Cobb in the 2nd and 3rd rounds doesn’t hurt, either. Historically speaking, however, record breaking QB’s usually come back to earth the next season. Hopefully Manning doesn’t, but fantasy football is just as much about calculated risk as it is about consistent picks, and there’s simply no better bet or more consistent player than Manning. That being said, I should have drafted a RB, that’s what conventional wisdom said, I overlooked it, and we’ll see who’s right and who’s the dog in week 16.
The point is, don’t let your peers tell you who is and who isn’t worthy of your roster. Fantasy is a game of numbers, not game film, and the numbers don’t lie. A guy that gets you consistent numbers is to be trusted. Lots of managers go for feast or famine players like Vincent Jackson and Doug Martin. Good for them, if they get the right weeks during the playoffs, they’ll be set. 80 or fewer combined yards between them isn’t outside the realm of possibility either (and the numbers support this), so be careful who you listen too carefully to, and don’t be in a hurry to trade a reliable player for one that can win you was many weeks as they can lose for you.
Eric Decker and Ben Tate are my final examples. Decker was one of Manning’s two show ponies in Denver, but rankings don’t have him so high this year, mostly because of his leaving Manning’s fold. But before Manning, who was throwing him the ball? Tim Tebow, in 2011. Decker put up 600 yards and 12 touchdowns that season, comparable to the numbers Larry Fitzgerald hauled in last season. Yet Fitzgerald is going in the 4th round and Decker is going late in the 10th. Regardless of whether he is catching passes from Manning or Geno Smith or Tebow, Decker produces. Eclipsing 1000 yards and 10 touchdowns the last two years, and projected to do something similar this year as Jersey B’s no.1 wideout, Decker is a steal as late as he is being drafted.
The same goes for Tate. He should be the starter in Cleveland’s offense, and if healthy, should put up comparable numbers to what Alfred Morris did last year in Washington running in Kyle Shanahan’s system, the very same system Tate will work out of with the Browns. A below-average passing attack sans Josh Gordon should get Tate even more carries, and a guy you can draft in the 11th round potentially putting up 1200 yards and 7 TD’s? Lock him up and throw away the key.
- Play The Matchup Game, But Don’t Tinker!
The third and final piece. Set your lineup with your best players playing every week they’re active, and rotate FLEX and situational starters in when they have a favorable matchup. You didn’t draft your star RB and WR just to bench them when they play a good or great defense. They may not explode for points that week, but unless you have a reserve RB or WR playing Oakland or Dallas, you should plug in your best and let them do their thing.
And once you’ve set your lineup, don’t tinker with it unless someone is hurt or downgraded. Stick with your instincts, you’ll either find that they’re usually right, or you’ll learn a big reason why some players should never play or at best be used sparingly.. Either way, you’ll learn something. Fantasy is as much about repetition as it is about peaks and valleys. Some players shouldn’t be played every week, others should never be benched, and you’ll find out who those players are in just two to three weeks if you don’t already know.
So have fun this year, don’t spend too much time frowning at your roster, and just enjoy the games and the game within the game that is fantasy. Hopefully you drafted well this year and won’t suffer through a long season wondering what might have been, but if you didn’t, there’s always next year, or even mid-season leagues for those that don’t want to wait for a reprieve.
Good luck this year, hopefully you are hoisting a trophy by season’s end, and don’t forget that your RB’s cannot possibly be more shallow than mine!
Feel free to follow and contact me on twitter (@oregonsportsguy), advice and smack talk are always free and welcome.
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