NFL Picks for Week 3

Last week, I was 8-5 and for the season, I’m 17-9 for a .529 winning percentage. Not bad but it could be better.

Here are the picks for Week 3

Indianapolis at Houston – CBS, 1 p.m.
Who would have thought this would have been a marquee matchup in Week 3? But here we are, both teams are 2-0 and the Texans have some confidence. Don’t forget that with David Carr, the Texans beat the Colts last year at home, 27-24. Now Carr is gone and the Texans have Matt Schaub as their QB, but Houston does not have a quality corps of receivers for this matchup. So the Texans have to run the ball. Bob Sanders has made a huge difference in the Colts’ defense as we have seen from last year’s playoffs so I don’t think we’ll have an upset here. The Colts have one of the best balanced offensive attacks in the league and the Texans’ defense will be hard pressed to stop the receivers or RB Joseph Addai. Take the Colts in this one, 38-17.

Arizona at Baltimore – Fox, 1 p.m.
I see some encouraging signs from the Cardinals. Under new coach Ken Whisenhunt, the Cardinals did a great job staying in their game with Seahawks last week. They could have folded when Seattle came from behind and took a lead, but they stayed with the Hawks and pulled the game out. I give them a lot of props. And while Kyle Boller came off the bench to play decently for the Ravens last week in place of the injured Steve McNair, coach Brian Billick is hoping that his veteran signal caller can come back this week and play. The Ravens are favored by as many as 8 points, but I think the game will be closer than that. Baltimore still wins, but by a Matt Stover figgy, 19-17.

Buffalo at New England – CBS, 1 p.m.
Buffalo has been swept by the Patriots five out of the last six years. No change in this season. The Pats don’t need spy cameras to defeat the Bills this year who are a young team and don’t have the horses to stay with New England. Pats win this one outright, 30-10.

San Francisco at Pittsburgh – Fox, 1 p.m.
The Niners are 2-0 and have a quality win on the road last week in St. Louis. But the Steelers’ defense is much better than the Rams. QB Alex Smith is going to be asked to win this one because RB Frank Gore is going to be shut down. Gore is averaging under 4 yards a carry because the Cardinals and Rams keyed on him. Smith has to prove he can carry an offense and until he does, Gore is going to be dropped for one or two yard gains on 1st and 2nd down. Do the Niners have a shot? Yes, but it’s a long one. Pittsburgh’s offense is showing me a lot over the past two weeks running over Cleveland and Buffalo. Take the Steelers in this one, 30-9.

Detroit at Philly – Fox, 1 p.m.
If you had told me one team was heading into this matchup 0-2 and the other, 2-0, I would have believed you, but I would not have believed the 2-0 team would be Detroit and the 0-2 team would be the Iggles. I believe the Eagles will still win the NFC East because the division is weak, but they have to start winning. Donovan McNabb’s comments on Real Sports brought him a lot of attention this week so if he wants to turn the criticism around, he had better play better than Monday Night when he was just ok. Granted, his receivers dropped passes and ran some bad routes, but someone has got to step up on offense besides Brian Westbrook. Eagles CB Lito Sheppard is hurt and may not play which will have offensive coodinator Mike Martz licking his chops to draw up a throwing attack on the secondary. The Eagles have the better team, but the Lions are showing me a lot of heart especially after QB Jon Kitna came back from an injury against Minnesota to lead Detroit to the win. I’ll take the Iggles to win, but on a late figgy, 23-21.

San Diego at Green Bay – CBS, 1 p.m.
Believe it or not, the San Diego talk shows have been filled with callers panicking over Sunday night’s loss to the Patriots. It wasn’t the fact the Chargers lost to the Pats, it was the way the Chargers lost. The Pats beat what is supposed to be a Super Bowl contender like a drum and that was without any spy cameras. Green Bay is a healthy 2-0 and the Packers’ defense is very good. Last week, the Pats held LaDanian Tomlinson to just 43 yards. In Week 1, the Bears only allowed LT to rush for only 25 yards so it’s important for Tomlinson to get back on track this week. Again, the Packers defense is very good and it was pointed out last week on Fox or CBS that going back to last season, Green Bay has won six straight games. QB Philip Rivers has not shown he can throw to his receivers this season so we’re seeing seven or eight men in the box to stop LT and it’s worked. Brett Favre has been enjoying the season thus far and when he’s having fun, watch out. I will take the Chargers to win, 17-14, but it’s a shaky pick.

Minnesota at Kansas City – Fox, 1 p.m.
A rematch of Super Bowl IV in which the Chiefs won, 23-7. They last met back in 2003. I like RB Adrian Petersen and he’s showing the NFL that he’s a legitimate threat with the football. Expect Vikings QB Tavaris Jackson to handing the ball off to Petersen quite a bit on Sunday. Now the Chiefs come into this game 0-2, but this is their home opener where QB Damon Huard is undefeated. Kansas City will want to get off the mat in this one so we should see Larry Johnson run the ball for the Chiefs. And coach Herman Edwards doesn’t want to start off 0-3. He won’t. Chiefs win, 24-14.

Miami at NY Jets – CBS, 1 p.m.
Any time these two teams get together, it doesn’t matter what the records are, they usually play an entertaining game. Both are 0-2 and are heading in the wrong direction. Neither team is going to win the division and the loser is going to be three games in back of the Patriots in the AFC East. The Dolphins did play the Redskins and Cowboys tough in their first two games, but against Dallas, Miami eventually fell to the wayside as I expected. The Jets are just a bad football team. QB Chad Pennington has been beaten to a pulp in the first two games because the offensive line can’t protect him. Expect to see Miami’s Jason Taylor sacking Pennington a lot on Sunday. I’ll take Miami to beat the Jets, 17-0.

St. Louis at Tampa Bay – Fox, 1 p.m.
I’ll be ignoring this game and thus, I won’t pick it.

Cleveland at Oakland – CBS, 4 p.m.
The Browns surprised me by defeating the Bungles at home. It certainly made my Sunday and I was truly happy to see Derek Anderson not only move the team, but throw for five touchdowns and lead the team to a 51-45 victory. So it wasn’t a defensive gem, but the Browns outlasted and outplayed a Bengals defense which is absolutely horrible. The Oakland Raiders defense is much better and they’re coming off a game in which they thought they had won, only to lose to Denver in OT. RB Jamal Lewis showed that he’s still got it, running for 216 yards against Cincy in Week 2. He won’t get that much against the Raiders in Week 3, but if he can run for over 100, the Browns should be in good shape. I’m going with my Browns in this one, 24-20.

Cincy at Seattle – CBS, 4 p.m.
The Bengals defense can’t cover anyone and if QB Matt Hasselbeck can mount a decent offensive attack, not the one that struggled against Arizona last week, then I think Seattle can win this game easily. But RB Shaun Alexander has to get going and WR Deion Branch has be involved as well. I think Seattle can win this and recover from last week. The final will be 24-10.

Jacksonville at Denver – CBS, 4 p.m.
The Broncos barely defeated an Oakland team that
it let back into the game and tie. Granted, it’s a division and rivalry game, but there’s no way the Raiders should have been in a position to win. And in OT, if it weren’t for coach Mike Shanahan calling a late timeout on what should have been the game winning kick, the Broncos would 1-1. But they aren’t and the Broncos took an ugly win into this game. Jacksonville has a no-name corps of receivers. It’s up to RB’s Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew to run the ball and keep the Jacksonville defense off the field. Denver QB Jay Cutler has been enjoying a very good season thus far and has plenty of weapons to throw to. I don’t think the Jaguars have the weapons to stay with Denver and I’ll take the Broncos to win, 34-17.

NY Giants at Washington – Fox, 4:15 p.m.
QB Eli Manning comes into this game with huge question marks after a poor performance last week against Green Bay. In fact, the entire Giants team has huge question marks. RB Brandon Jacobs is out for the G-Men. The Redskins have a lot of confidence after beating Philly on Monday Night and QB Jason Campbell played much better than I expected. The Giants have to show me they can win and right now, they can’t. Plus when Redskins coach Joe Gibbs loves division matchups and I can see him formulating a plan to run Clinton Portis and Ladell Betts until they both reach the end zone together. Giants will lose, 35-14 and the game won’t even be that close.

Carolina at Atlanta – Fox, 4:15 p.m.
Carolina wins, 19-10. How the Panthers with Steve Smith lost last week to Houston is a mystery to me.

Dallas at Chicago – NBC, 8:15 p.m.
Repeat after me, “Don’t kick the ball to Devin Hester. Don’t kick the ball to Devin Hester.” Got it? Good. But I don’t understand why teams still do this. The man has run seven kicks back for TD’s and he has helped to break open games for the Bears over the last season and two games. Kansas City kicked it to him last week and 75 yards later, the game was essentially over. Coach Wade Phillips has got to drum the message not to kick to Hester to his special teams. QB Tony Romo has been kept away from holding the ball on field goals and this has led to him being very efficient on offense in the first two weeks of the season. The Bears defensive line is fast and could pose problems for Romo. Because this game is at home, I’ll take Chicago to win this very good NFC matchup, but it’ll be close, 24-20.

Tennessee at New Orleans – ESPN, Monday, 8:15 p.m.
I’m not in love with this game and may not watch it. The Titans gave the Colts fits last week and almost won last week. The Saints have to get back into the swing of things after being solidly beaten by Tampa Bay. RB’s Deuce McAllister and Reggie Bush have got to get involved because they’ve been missing from the Saints’ offense. I’ll take New Orleans because the Saints are due. I’ll say Saints over the Titans by a score of 10-7.

Those are your picks. Enjoy the games.