Time to give you the picks in the League Where They Play for Pay. Last week I went 6-6 for an overall record of 31-22 for a percentage of .585, dropping from .610 last week. We’ll try to up the ante this week. Let’s get started.
New York Jets vs. New York Giants – CBS, 1 p.m.
For the Jets, they are in serious trouble in the AFC East as they enter the game with a 1-3 record. The Giants have reached the .500 level after an 0-2 start. So they will play what in effect is a home game for the G-Men. The Jets are hoping to use this game as a springboard for the rest of the season, but can they really? After a 12 sack game against the Eagles on Monday Night, the Giants know they won’t get that many against the Jets, but QB Chad Pennington is still nursing a sore ankle and you know the defensive line bolstered by Osi Umenyiora will be chomping at the bit to exploit a weak offensive line. Giants QB Eli Manning and WR Plaxico Burress have teamed up for 6 TD passes this season and with the Jets secondary in shambles, this is something to watch for tomorrow. I’ll take the Giants to win outright, 31-17.
Cleveland at New England – CBS, 1 p.m.
What a day for the New England sports fan tomorrow. The Pats start at 1 p.m., then the Red Sox will play the Angels in Anaheim in hopes of sweeping the ALDS. Last week, my Browns beat the Baltimore Ravens, in fact they beat the Ravens like a drum, 27-13. QB Derek Anderson threw for two TD’s against a defense which is touted to be one of the best in the league. Now they face the Patriots which is running on all cylinders on both sides of the ball. This is the first time that head coach Romeo Crennel is facing former boss Bill Belichick and unlike the hoodie’s cold relationship with Jets coach and former defensive coordinator Eric Mangini, Crennel and Belichick actually get along. For me to sit here and say my Browns will upset the Patriots is wishful thinking. I can’t do that as much as I love my team. And while I did predict the Brownies would beat Baltimore last week, I can’t do that this week. I’ll say the Pats take this one. They’re favored by 16.5, but they won’t cover. Patriots win, 34-23.
Carolina at New Orleans – Fox, 1 p.m.
The Saints are coming off a bye and a much needed one after losing handily in Week 3 to Tennessee on a Monday Night. This is a team that many predicted would be a Super Bowl contender this season after reaching the NFC Conference Game back in January. Now, the Saints are hoping for a way to salvage the season. Carolina is 2-2 and lost to Tampa Bay last week and the Panthers have some really deep question marks. Will QB Jake Delhomme start or will it be David Carr who look inept last week against the Bucs? The Panthers are also an enigma winning both of their games this season on the road while losing both games at home. With this game at the Superdome, Saints RB Reggie Bush has to carry the load especially with Deuce McAllister out the rest of the season. We know how difficult it is to reach the playoffs after starting 0-3. Only 1 team has reached the playoffs after starting 0-4 so the Saints have a lot at stake on this game. If David Carr starts for the Panthers, I don’t hold out much hope that he can do anything on this level. I’m going to say the Saints get their first win of the season in the Crescent City, 17-3 in an outright struggle.
Seattle at Pittsburgh, Fox, 1 p.m.
It seems to me as if Fox has been doing more games this season at Pittsburgh than home network CBS and I find I am right as only one AFC opponent has faced the Steelers at Heinz Field. Here comes the Seahawks in a rematch of Super Bowl XL. The Steelers lost last week to Arizona, but still lead the AFC North by a game over my Browns and the Ravens. Seattle is on top of the NFC West by a game over the Cardinals and Niners, but in essence have a one game lead over SF after thoroughly dominating them at Candlestick last week. RB Shaun Alexander ran for just under 80 yards and QB Matt Hasselbeck passed for 281 yards along with 2 TD’s. Pittsburgh has to make a statement with a quality opponent. I expect this game to be a drag out fight. If Seattle’s receivers can actually make plays instead of watching the ball go through their hands, this might be a very close contest. Pittsburgh is favored by six because of this and its high powered offense, but I don’t think any team will run away with this game. I’ll take the Steelers on a figgy, 20-17.
Jacksonville at KC, 1 p.m., CBS
Even with this game being played at Arrowhead, Las Vegas is favoring the Jags. Why? I don’t understand. While the Jags were off last week, the Chiefs flew into San Diego and dominated the Chargers after spotting them a lead, then reeled off 24 straight points. Even though the Chiefs have two straight come-from-behind wins, they can’t expect to keep this pace up. And Jacksonville can run the ball to play keep away from the Chiefs and to run out the clock. However, the last time these two teams met last season, KC held Maurice Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor in check. WR Dwayne Bowe is now being used as a weapon in the Chiefs attack and he’ll play a key role tomorrow. I’m picking the Chiefs to win this game, 16-13.
Detroit at Washington, Fox, 1 p.m.
The Lions are 3-1 in the NFC North and need another win to convince the rest of the NFL that they’re for real. After scoring a record 34 points in the 4th quarter last week to beat a slipping Bears team, 37-27, the Lions come into Landover, MD flying high. The Redskins had last week off to think about their loss to the Giants. Now history is on Washington’s side. The Lions have not beaten the Redskins either at RFK Stadium or at the Stadium Formerly Known as Jack Kent Cooke. And coach Joe Gibbs has never lost to Detroit. This is a game where the Lions can prove they’re legit and it’s also a game for Redskin QB Jason Campbell to show that he’s legit. Something needs to give. The Lions corps of receivers are as talented as any in the league. Right now, the Lions are on pace to win 12 games this season. A win tomorrow in Landover will go a long way for the Lions’ confidence. And I’m predicting that the Lions will win in my upset special, 24-19.
Atlanta at Tennessee – Fox, 1 p.m.
Atlanta got off the schnide last week defeating Houston. Tennessee was off. Take Vince Young and the Titans over a Falcons team that’s still trying to find itself. Titans, 28-7.
Miami at Houston – CBS, 1 p.m.
I picked the Dolphins to defeat the Raiders last week. I’m not picking Miami again. The ‘fins have burned me for the last time. Houston wins, 16-3.
Tampa Bay at Indy – Fox, 4 p.m.
Good matchup. Bucs are 3-1. Indy is 4-0. Bucs coach Jon Grudin finally has his QB in Jeff Garcia who’s mobile and adept at eluding the pursuit. But Tampa Bay is hurting after losing both OT Luke Petitgout and RB Cadillac Williams for the season in the win against Carolina. The Bucs really need to use their running attack to control the ball and keep it away from the potent Colts offense. But the Colts are also hurting with WR Marvin Harrison, RB Joseph Addai and S Bob Sanders all game-time decisions. A loss of Sanders will be a big blow to the defense. A loss of Harrison will be a big blow to QB Peyton Manning. And this marks the return of CB Cato June to Indy. Earlier today, I watched the NFL Network’s America’s Game documentary on the 2002 Bucs that won the Super Bowl over the Raiders. It marked a great coaching job by Grudin who will need that spirit tomorrow to beat the Colts. I’m taking Indy tomorrow, 27-21.
Baltimore at San Francisco – CBS, 4:15 p.m.
Here are two teams that were expected to have better records than the identical 2-2 they both have. The Ravens defense was torched, torched by my Browns last week and allowed its first rushing TD of the season. This defense is going to be mad and with former Ravens QB Trent Dilfer now playing for the Niners tomorrow in place of the injured Alex Smith, expect him to be punished by an angry Ravens team. I don’t think RB Frank Gore will make much headway into the Ravens defensive line. Baltimore wins a grinder, 13-7.
San Diego at Denver – CBS, 4:15 p.m.
This is just one of three late games in Week 5 and it makes for slim pickings for fans with the NFL Sunday Ticket package. San Diego has a chance to come into the Mile High City and get the ship righted against a Bronco defense which can’t stop the run. Against Jacksonville and Indianapolis, the Broncos defense allowed feature backs to rush through the line and pile up the yardage. Denver is next to last in run defense and that’s not good with a LaDanian Tomlinson hoping that he got back on track last week in a loss to the Chiefs. If the Chargers run the ball well, they’ll win this game and they will. Chargers, 31-16.
Chicago at Green Bay – NBC, 8:15 p.m.
The NBC hype machine is focusing on Packer QB Brett Favre. Yes, Brett Favre’s Packers are a surprising 4-0. Yes, Brett Favre has broken Dan Marino’s career TD passing record. Yes, Brett Favre is having fun this season. Yes, Brett Favre is finding his receivers again. And yes, Lambeau Field is a special place. Enough already! I can’t stand this. I’m half wanting to predict a Bears win. But I can’t. Chicago is banged up defensively. By giving up 34 points to Detroit in the 4th quarter last week, red flags were raised everywhere in Bear Nation. And QB Brian Griese didn’t fare any better than Rex Grossman did throwing three interceptions despite amassing 286 yards and two TD’s. Green Bay is ranked 2nd in passing yardage. Chicago’s running game is just lame. So you can see where this is going. Green Bay will win. Devin Hester will run back a kick for a TD to amount for the only scoring for the Bears tomorrow night. Packers, 31-7.
Dallas at Buffalo – ESPN, Monday, 8:30 p.m.
Dallas all the way, 46-14.
That’s it. Enjoy.
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