NFL Picks for Week 7

Well, after watching my Red Sox force Game 7 against Cleveland earlier tonight, it’s time for me to get into football mode and do my picks for Week 7. Last week, I had a decent week going 9-4 for an overall record of 49-30 for a winning percentage of .710 which is now very good. I’m hoping to do better in what amounts to a tough week in picking games, but let’s not stop now. Time for the picks.

Atlanta at New Orleans – Fox, 1 p.m.
Can you believe this is the only game on the schedule not to be broadcast in High Def? That’s right. Usually, there are one or two CBS games and one Fox game that doesn’t get the HD treatment, but because CBS is only airing five games this week, all of its broadcasts will be in stunning High Definition. The Falcons at 1-5 and the Saints at 1-4? You get standard def and you’ll like it. Now had Michael Vick not gone to the dogs and the Saints not gone batty this season, this matchup might have been moved to 4:15 p.m. But instead, this becomes a game that gets maybe 4 or 5 cameras, a broadcast team of Chris Rose and Terry Donahue and a distribution to Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, parts of South Carolina, Florida and Arkansas. These states must wonder what they did to get punished to have this game aired on their local Fox affiliates. Byron Leftwich starts at QB for the Falcons. Reggie Bush showed signs of the stellar RB he was last season during the Sunday Night game agaisnt Seattle. Take New Orleans in this matchup, 21-3. The Atlanta offense is stuck in quicksand.

Baltimore at Buffalo – CBS, 1 p.m.
This is a matchup of two offenses that need sparks. Buffalo will start Trent Edwards at QB for at least one more week. Kyle Boller starts for the Ravens. You can see where this is going. While Edwards shows potential as a rookie drafted out of Stanford, he’s not quite there as a true NFL QB. Kyle Boller will never be confused with John Elway. While the Ravens defense has looked pedestrian at the most inopportune times, it has stepped up when the chips were down. The Bills are trying to make up for one of their worst starts in history. But the Ravens know this has the looks of a trap game. Ray Lewis will make sure that doesn’t happen. Ravens will win, 19-7, the same exact score as last year.

Tennessee at Houston – CBS, 1 p.m.
For the longest time, the Texans were the team never to get the high definition treatment, but with QB Matt Schaub and some good wins this season, this game gets the “C” team of Dick Enberg and Randy Cross, high definition cameras and a distribution to much of the South and the Midwest. Titans QB Vince Young hobbled off the field last week against Tampa Bay with a strained right quad and didn’t return while his team lost to the Bucs. Unless VY is at full strenth, you know that Houston is going to look for ways to confuse his backup, veteran Kerry Collins. And Texans Defensive End Mario Williams, fed up of hearing “Why did we draft Mario instead of VY…” will be chomping at the bit to find a way to show he was worth the trust of former GM Charley Casserly. If VY is at 100%, it’s a no-brainer, pick the Titans, but with it looking more and more as if Collins will get the nod, the Texans are the worthwhile pick here. Take Houston to win by no more than a figgy, 23-20.

Arizona at Washington – Fox, 1 p.m.
Arizona burned me big time last week. I thought they would pour it on Carolina, but the Cardinals let me down. Now here they are, heading to play a former division rival in the Redskins. Arizona is now on its third QB in Tim Rattay who’s still getting adjusted to the offense just after being signed before Week 6. While on the other side, Jason Campbell has to find a way to get the ball to WR Santana Moss because suddenly, Washington’s ground game has fallen by the wayside. Just like I’m not picking the Dolphins for the rest of the season, I’m no longer picking the Arizona Cardinals to win as well. Take Washington to win this outright, 24-7.

San Francisco at New York Giants – Fox, 1 p.m.
What In The World has happened to the 49ers? This was a team that was supposed to challenge for the NFC West lead, but instead has lost 3 games in a row. It doesn’t matter who starts at QB, whether it be Alex Smith or Trent Dilfer, the Niner offense has lost its way. RB Frank Gore can only do so much and before last week’s bye, the Niners looked pathetic scoring only 7 points against the Ravens. And the Giants seem to be getting hot as QB Eli Manning looks to be showing the qualities that led him to be the #1 overall pick of the NFL Draft in 2004. This appears to be a mismatch and rightfully so. If the Niners can’t get the running game going, expect to see Michael Strahan and Osi Umenyiora running after the quarterback all game long. Giants 31, Niners 6.

New England at Miami – CBS, 1 p.m.
Last season, Tom Brady had his worst game as a pro against the Dolphins in the Stadium Formerly Known as Joe Robbie, losing 21-0. There was a reason for that. As the great General John McClain of the Houston Chronicle told Tony Bruno on Sporting News Radio on Friday, Brady’s former girlfriend, Bridget Moynahan was spotted in South Florida that weekend, and it was traced that it was that weekend when she told Tom that A) she was pregnant with his son and, B) she was breaking up with him. Tom proceeded to pass for just 89 yards and was sacked five times. Now unless current girlfriend, Gisele Bundchen does the same this weekend, there’s really no stopping Brady against a hapless team that is looking at a possible 0-16 season. While in the Brady era, the Patriots are 2-4 and have not scored more than 23 points in each of those games, don’t expect to see that on Sunday. The Patriots have scored at least 34 points in each of their first 6 games and they made a huge statement last week against the Cowboys. Miami? They did play tough against Cleveland making a game after falling behind 24-3, finally losing, 41-31. Miami’s not going to win tomorrow. They’re huge underdogs at home. By 16.5 points. There’s a big reason for that. This is a mismatch and you can be assured that coach Bill Belichick won’t allow a letdown. Take the Pats to win, 50-10.

Tampa Bay at Detroit – Fox, 1 p.m.
Two former division rivals face off at Ford Field tomorrow. The Lions are an enigma to me. They’ve looked great in their wins and looked absolutely horrible in their losses. Case in point, scoring 27 points in the 4th quarter to beat Chicago in Week 4 and then the following week, stinking up the joint in Landover, MD losing to Washington, 34-3. I don’t get them, but then again, neither do their fans. Tampa Bay comes off a big win over Tennessee last week, 13-10. Detroit is favored, but they really shouldn’t be. Take the Bucs to take the game, 21-17.

Kansas City at Oakland – CBS, 4:05 p.m.
CBS has assigned its “A” announcing team, Jim Nantz and Phil Simms to this game. They’re probably wondering why. The Chiefs are another enigma. They have wins over San Diego, Cincinnati and Miami, but losses to Houston, Chicago (kicking the ball to Devin Hester) and Jacksonville. And they’re still tied for the AFC West lead with the Chargers. Oakland is much improved over last season, but the Raiders can ill afford to fall behind because they’re not a comeback team. RB Larry Johnson got his first TD last week against the Bengals and rushed for 119 yards, the first time he went over
the century mark this season. Expect more of the same this weekend. Take the Chiefs to win this by a figgy, 27-24.

New York Jets at Cincinnati – CBS, 4:05 p.m.
The “genius” label is off the HC of the NYJ, Eric Mangini. The Jets have looked lackluster and they haven’t scored an offensive TD in one and a half games. Last week, Chad Pennington couldn’t get the tying score late in the game against the Eagles. But the Eagles’ defense is pretty decent. The Bengals defense is like a sieve. There are leaks all over the place, yet with Pennington’s lack of arm, the Bengals secondary might be able to get an interception or two. With Carson Palmer feeling the pressure to carry the load, he’s been throwing some really bad picks. This game could get ugly for both offenses. I expect the Bengals to finally get their 2nd win, but it’ll be a struggle. I’ll say Cincy wins in a shootout, 34-29.

St. Louis at Seattle – Fox, 4:15 p.m.
After the Seahawks allowed the Saints to pick up their first win of the season last Sunday night, you had better believe the Rams feel they have a very good shot to get their first win on Sunday. QB Marc Bulger will be back, but RB Steven Jackson, a big weapon in the Rams’ offense will be out. For Seattle, WR Deion Branch won’t play with a sprained foot. These two teams usually play entertaining games, especially at Qwest Field. I expect no less from them again this week. Take Seattle to win, but just barely, 25-24.

Chicago at Philadelphia – Fox, 4:15 p.m.
This is a battle of two teams who have gone from first to worst in their divisions in less than a year’s time. Chicago has been decimated on defense. Philadelphia has struggled, but both teams have shown flashes of their old selves this season. And you know the Eagles have been instructed under no circumstances will they kick the ball to Devin Hester. The man has nine TD’s for returns. Don’t kick the ball to him, yet teams find a way to get him the ball on punts and kickoffs and he just runs them back for scores. Brian Griese has looked decent since replacing Rex Grossman. Philadelphia must rely on Brian Westbrook again and knowing that the Bears struggling defense allowed rookie sensation Adrian Peterson to run for 224 yards last week, expect the ball to go on the ground until the Bears find a way to stop it. I’ll take the Eagles to win this, 21-13.

Minnesota at Dallas – Fox, 4:15 p.m.
The Cowboys shut down the Patriots running attack last week, but could not find a way to stop Tom Brady from finding his receivers. This week, it’ll have to contend with a much better running back than Sammy Morris. Adrian Peterson had his coming out party last week against the Bears. I already told you what he did. I don’t expect Dallas to give up that much on the ground, but I do believe it will have trouble stopping him as well. This is a player who could be very special. He had moves that I hadn’t seen since Barry Sanders and it was amazing. Now the Cowboys running attack may not be able to get going because the Vikings run defense is the best in the league. The Cowboys will try to make QB Tavaris Jackson beat them, but with Peterson attempting to become the first RB to run over 100 yards against Dallas this season, this will become a rather exciting matchup. Tony Romo will need his receivers to step up and in a big way. I’m going to take Minnesota in my upset special, 31-27.

Pittsburgh at Denver – NBC, 8:15 p.m.
This week, I read various NFL “experts” say Denver isn’t as bad as they showed against San Diego. I’m sorry, but when a division opponent puts up a 40 burger on you (as NFL Network’s Steve Mariucci says) at home, you are what you are. You’re a bad defensive team. The Broncos have had trouble stopping the run. The Steelers are averaging close to 170 rushing yards a game. Denver did have a bye week in Week 6 so it hopes to cure what has ailed them thus far. But I don’t think it will happen. If Denver WR Javon Walker doesn’t play on Sunday, QB Jay Cutler will start to think he’s Jake Plummer and that will be totally bad for coach Mike Shanahan. Steelers are favored by 3.5 on the road and for good reason. Take the Steelers to win, 35-17.

Indianapolis at Jacksonville – ESPN, Monday, 8:30 p.m.
After garnering the lowest ratings in history of Monday Night Football last week with the Giants and Falcons, ESPN actually gets the Game of the Week for the first time since paying a billion dollars a season for the franchise last season. The Colts have had trouble with the Jags for the past three seasons. And last season, Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew ran roughshod over the Colts at home for a totally convincing 44-17 win. While the Colts have the overall lead in the series, 9-3, this is not as convincing as it looks. Bob Sanders is hurt again this week and may play. If Jones-Drew and Taylor are able to get through that initial wave of defenders, this could be another long night for the Colts. TE Dallas Clark has become a dependable target for QB Peyton Manning. But the best way to defend Peyton Manning is to control the ball and keep him off the field. If the Colts defense doesn’t stop the running attack, watch the Jags grind the clock into a pulp. I do think the Colts will find a way to win this, but it’s not going to be easy. Colts 24-22 over the Jags.

That’s it. Enjoy the games.