Last week, I went 8-5 for an overall record of 65-41 for a winning percentage of .613. I basically maintained, but didn’t improve. This week is the big game between New England and Indianapolis and that will be done at the end. In the meantime, let’s pick the other games and we do have some pretty good matchups this week besides Pats-Colts. Let’s get to them.
Arizona at Tampa Bay – Fox, 1 p.m.
The Bucs played a very good game against Jacksonville last week, but came up short, 24-23. But they’re limping towards their bye week. A win here would put them in a good state of mind and playing at home will help them. The Cards are playing much better under new coach Ken Whisenhunt, just a game under .500. And QB Kurt Warner got a bye week to rest that injured non-throwing elbow. Last week, Bucs QB Jeff Garcia threw his first interceptions of the season and one could say they ended up hurting down the stretch as the Bucs’ comeback fell by the wayside. Whisenhunt will have his team prepared and have Edgerrin James run down the Bucs’ defense. I’ll still say Tampa Bay will eke this one out by a 24-21 score.
Carolina at Tennessee – Fox, 1 p.m.
Another good matchup. Last week, Carolina scored the opening touchdown against the Colts and if the game had ended there, the Panthers would have won, but unfortunately for them, the game continued and the Colts ended up taking the game by a 31-7 count. Another unfortunate development for the Panthers, statue David Carr looks like he will start at QB. That’s bad news for wide receiver Steve Smith who expressed his frustration with Carr on the sidelines last week. On the other side, RB LenDale White is running well for the Titans. What’s interesting is that all of Carolina’s wins have come on the road while all of their losses have come at home. This is where the trend stops as the Titans will take the game, 21-7.
San Francisco at Atlanta – Fox, 1 p.m.
I don’t think too many people will be watching this game. Niner QB Alex Smith returns after suffering a separated left shoulder, but really, neither team is going nowhere, he might have been better served by sitting out another week. But this might be a game for the taking for SF. Atlanta is in shambles as head coach Bobby Petrino is trying out the rookies in favor of the veterans. Right now, the vets are in a disconnect with the coach. I’ll take the Niners in this one by a 15-9 score.
Cincinnati at Buffalo – CBS, 1 p.m.
Another dog matchup. Even though the Bills are at home and are coming off a win at the Jets last week, they’re still 1 point underdogs. I don’t understand. And the Bills have won their last 8 matchup between these two teams. Yes, Rudi Johnson will be back for Cincy. Yes, the Bills offense is anemic. Yes, the Bills are playing for second place in the AFC East behind the 8-0 Patriots. But there are several factors against the Bengals including their horrific defense which can’t stop anybody. The Bills will win this, 28-14.
Washington at New York Jets – Fox, 1 p.m.
The Redskins come off an embarrassing 52-7 loss to the Patriots. Coach Joe Gibbs was too classy to say that the Patriots ran up the score on him. He knows better. But here the Redskins into the Meadowlands where the Jets are playing out the string. This week, the Jets start KellenClemens against a defense which is very good. The Redskins didn’t show how good they were last week, but then again, not too many defenses have stopped the Patriots to date. The only bright spots for the Jets have been wide receiver Laveranues Coles and running back Thomas Jones. For the Redskins, QB Jason Campbell has yet to show the consistency of an elite NFL signal caller. He might get that chance against the Jets this week. Take the Redskins to win outright, 20-3.
Jacksonville at New Orleans – CBS, 1 p.m.
Another interconference matchup. The Jaguars can just run the ball interchanging Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew. The Saints are improving, but I don’t think they’re improved enough to stop Jacksonville. The last time these two teams met four years ago, Taylor ran rampant through the Saints for 225 yards. He won’t get that much on Sunday, but he won’t have to as Jones-Drew will get some of the load as well. QB David Garrard was badly injured against Tampa Bay last week, but that meant that backup Quinn Gray just handed the ball off and it worked. If the Saints defense can stop the running attack and force Gray to throw, it will have won half the battle. Even without Garrard, I’ll take the Jags to win this game, 16-14.
Denver at Detroit – Fox, 1 p.m.
The Lions are halfway to QB Jon Kitna’s goal of 10 wins and the way they’re playing, they just might get there. Last week, I didn’t think they would be able to win at Chicago to sweep the season series with the Bears, but lo and behold, they did it and in convincing fashion. I don’t understand this Broncos team. Right when you think they’ve righted the ship, they end up giving up a huge 82 yard bomb to Green Bay on the first play in overtime on Monday night to lose. And their defense certainly won’t be compared to the 1985 Bears 46 defense. The Lions have excellent receivers, but to win games late, you have to grind it out and they’ve been able to do it with Kevin Jones. Expect to see Jones a lot because Denver can’t stop the run. Lions fans thought the trade of Dre’ Bly would hurt them, but they must have smiled seeing Bly get beat on the aforementioned GB bomb to Greg Jennings. I like the Lions in this game, 27-20.
San Diego at Minnesota – CBS, 1 p.m.
This is a matchup of the present vs. the future, Charger RB LaDanian Tomlinson vs. Vikings RB Adrian Peterson. Granted, they’re not facing off against each other, but it will be interesting to see them run the ball in this game. The problem for Minnesota is that Tavaris Jackson will be calling signals. Here’s another guy who has been consistent and if Jackson goes down, expect to see Brooks Bollinger in his place. The Chargers are tied for first in the AFC West with Kansas City after starting 1-3 and look like the team that went 14-2 last season. LT needs four more touchdowns to tie the great Walter Payton for third on the all-time rushing TD list. If the Chargers play like they have during its current three game winning streak, there’s no stopping them on Thursday. Expect a San Diego Super Chargers win, 31-13.
Green Bay at Kansas City – Fox, 1 p.m.
Had the Pats-Colts not been scheduled for this week, this might have been the Game of the Week. The Packers come into Arrowhead Stadium having never beaten the Chiefs in the Brett Favre era. You have the Chiefs tied for the AFC West lead with the Chargers and the Packers steering the ship in the NFC North. But a loss by Green Bay coupled with a Detroit win would force a tie in the division. Both defenses are very good. The Packers can score, but it’s the Chiefs’ offense which has problems scoring in the red zone. That could be the difference in the game. Coming off an emotional win in Denver, the Packers have to play in one of the most difficult stadiums to play for a road team. The Chiefs are favored in this game and rightfully so, but I’ll take the Packers to win here by a figgy, 23-2o.
Seattle at Cleveland – Fox, 4:05 p.m.
Can you imagine how Charlie Frye is going to feel coming back to Cleveland after being traded to the Seahawks following his horrible Week 1 performance against Pittsburgh? Since that time, the Browns have been 4-2 under Derek Anderson and have been playing very well. The Seahawks will finally have a healthy corps of receivers for this game thanks to the bye week. B
ut QB Matt Hasselbeck comes off an injury that has hindered his throwing motion. The Browns defense has to hold on in their two game wining streak. It’s been the Browns’ offense that’s been carrying the load, especially with Anderson meshing with with WR Braylon Edwards and TE Kellen Winslow, Jr. both of whom are showing the promise when they were drafted. The Seahawks’ secondary will have to be on its game. But if the Browns hope to win, they’ve got to get RB Jamal Lewis involved to keep the Seattle defense honest. Even though Seattle leads the NFC West with a 4-3 record, I’ll take the Browns with a 4-3 record of their own to win, 29-24.
Houston at Oakland – CBS, 4:15 p.m.
You know how bad it is for Oakland? Their fans didn’t even bother to sell out this game so the Bay Area as well as the entire Northern California region will get Pats-Colts on Sunday. In fact, in a first, the entire state of California will get Patriots-Colts as the Chargers and Niners will have played in the early games this week. Oakland is a sorry shell of a team. Yeah, Lane Kiffin has the Raiders playing much better than last season, but the Raiders are still finding ways to lose ballgames. Believe it or not, the Raiders have never beaten the Texans. That’s true, 0-2 since Houston came into the league. Expect Sage Rosenfels to play in place of the wobbly Matt Schaub at QB for the Texans. Oakland which ran the ball very well to start the season has seen a downturn ever since QB Daunte Culpepper started to play in the shotgun. While Culpepper plays better from the spread formation, it has limited the options for the running game. Even with Rosenfels, take the Texans to keep the Raiders in the loss column and not make Raider Nation regret not buying tickets for the game. It’ll be a 17-5 final in favor of Houston.
Dallas at Philadelphia – NBC, 8:15 p.m.
This has been a trying week for Eagles coach Andy Reid. He’s been distracted while his sons have been in court on drug charges. For his part, Reid said he won’t resign or take a leave of absence. To be honest, Reid’s problems aren’t the reason for the Eagles’ 3-4 record. Last week, Donovan McNabb showed signs why he was one of the best QB’s in the league when healthy. Throwing for 333 yards against the Vikings and showing mobility for the first time in a long while, McNabb looked very good. But he’s facing a Cowboys defense that is very good up front and very shaky in the secondary. If the Iggles’ offensive line can keep the Cowboys D-line at bay, Philadelphia will have more than a decent shot Sunday night. Even though Cowboys’ glamor boy QB Tony Romo has a new contract in hand, it’s the ground game that will do the yeoman’s work for the offense. Yeah, Terrell Owens returns to Philly, but who cares? I’ll take the Eagles to pull an upset at home, 31-23.
Baltimore at Pittsburgh – ESPN, 8:30 p.m., Monday
The Ravens offense is tepid. Their defense is not as strong as it used to be. Pittsburgh appears to be on the level below New England and Indianapolis. After losing to Denver in Week 7 on a last second figgy to Denver, the Steelers bounced back nicely beating division opponent Cincinnati rather handily. Even with their horrible offense, the Ravens are still within shouting distance of AFC North leading Pittsburgh and a win will bring them to a tie with the Steelers. But it won’t happen. Unless QB Steve McNair can find ways to score touchdowns instead of field goals, I don’t see the Ravens winning this game. Take the Steelers to win, 27-13.
New England at Indianapolis – CBS, 4:15 p.m.
Yes, I’ve saved this for last. In the history of the NFL, there has never been a matchup of undefeated teams this late in the season. You’ve got 8-0 New England coming into 7-0 Indianapolis. And believe it or not, the defending Super Bowl champions are underdogs in this game. Even though Indy’s offense is better (even though WR Marvin Harrison will not play) and even though the Colts’ defense is much improved from last season, the Patriots are favored by five points. The winner of this game will have the inside track to home field advantage in the playoffs. We all remember what happened in the AFC Championship Game back in January. The Patriots jumped out to a 21-6 halftime lead only to see the Colts come back and defeat New England, 38-34 and rolled on to win the Super Bowl. The Colts are 12-0 in their last 12 games including the postseason. The Pats are 11-0 in their last 11 regular season games. Yes, the Patriots have run up the score on their last two opponents and rubbed it in on Dallas with a final TD in Week 6. The Colts last season did run up the score on their opponents last season and their GM Bill Polian is not liked around the league. But put all this aside and let’s look at some facts.
Tom Brady is on pace to throw to shatter Peyton Manning’s TD passing record. He’s thrown for 3 TD passes in 8 straight games tying Manning’s record set in 2004. The Patriots have put RB Sammy Morris on IR for the rest of the season after suffering a chest injury. The Colts’ RB Joseph Addai is running better than he has all last season. The one area where the Patriots have excelled where the Colts have not is in the red zone. Instead of scoring touchdowns, the Colts have kicked figgys 14 times in 34 red zone possessions.
The Patriots have a improved corps of receivers coming into this game than the last time they played. Randy Moss has caught 11 TD’s this season. Wes Welker has become a star. Donte Stallworth is showing signs of why the Pats signed him as a free agent. The Colts also have a talented corps of pass catchers, but as I mentioned, Marvin Harrison will not play, but they still have Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark has emerged as a true weapon for Peyton Manning.
This rivalry started out with the Patriots 6-0, but the Colts are 3-0 in the last three games. So something’s got to give here. Both defenses are facing their toughest tests of the season. The defense that doesn’t break in the key moment of the game will win this game. Once again, Colts safety Bob Sanders will be a factor. If the Patriots can get him to be up front, that is getting its running game to be effective, it can create some one-on-one matchups in the secondary for the receivers. But if the running game is shut down and Brady is forced to throw, you will see lots of Cover 2 by the Colts and that will make it hard for the Pats QB to force it into coverage.
For me, the key factor might be down to the kicking games where Adam Vinitieri has an advantage over Steve Gostowski. This will be a fun game to watch and I’m going to take the Patriots to win by a slim figgy, 42-39.
Those are your games. Enjoy Week 9.
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