The 2008 regular season is now history, all of the playoff spots have been filled, and I got some pretty surprising results in the power rankings to end the season. There are a few things to keep in mind as you look at the final regular season rankings below:
– The rankings are the result of a weighted mathematical formula that takes record, recent success, strengths of schedule and division, and offensive, defensive, and turnover success into account.
– Since its a purely objective formula, mailing in a week 17 performance will hurt a team’s standing.
– The rankings are slightly more of a measure of who is the best rest now instead of all season, and I can’t disagree with the teams at the top of the list being able to beat just about anybody right now.
Thanks to the #2 Colts thrashing of the #1 Titans in a completely meaningless game, the Colts, who have won 9 in a row, enter into the playoffs at #1 in the power rankings. The Titans, who have lost 2 of the last 3 to end the season and have shown some offensive difficulties as of late, dropped out of the top 5 for the first time since week 2 to #6. The Giants, who also haven’t played their best down the stretch, fell all the way to #9 as a lot of teams got hot to grab the last playoff spots. Carolina remains at #4 after clinching the NFC South and 2 of this year’s biggest surprises, the Dolphins and Ravens, finish the regular season at #3 and #5 respectively.
Somehow, someway, the non-playoff bound 11-5 New England Patriots wound up #2 on the list to end the regular season. How did this happen? Well, they made a nice run down the stretch blowing away many of their opponents all while the entire AFC East continued to shine. Also, they are only 2 games back of the best record in the NFL yet somehow missed the playoffs. As much as I dislike them, I’d have to admit they probably are the 2nd best team in the NFL at this moment, but thankfully for the rest of the league, they won’t get a chance to prove it in the playoffs.
The 12 playoff teams fill 12 out of the top 15 spots in the ranks from #1, #3-#11, #13, and #15. The 3 non playoff teams mixed in are #2 New England, #12 Chicago, and #14 New Orleans. The Vikings are Cardinals, 2 of the lesser division champs are #13 and #15. The Bears actually finished ahead of the Vikings in the ranks thanks mostly to turnover ratio, which is often a good indication of success on the field, but couldn’t get the Bears past the Vikings in the standings. The 8-8 Chargers, who looked more like their old selves down the stretch, enter the playoffs ranked #10, while the other 8-8 team they ousted, the Broncos, finished all the way down at #27 after having a very deceiving season. The Broncos finished .500 despite having the 3rd worst offense and tied for the worst turnover ratio. They also played in a pretty horrible division and had the 3rd easiest schedule in the league this year, which hurts their ranking even more. Despite leading the division all season, they have always been ranked pretty low in these rankings for those reasons.
On the flip side, the Eagles snuck into the last playoff spot after getting a ton of help. The Eagles have always been ranked pretty high all season despite their so-so 9-6-1 record. Their high offensive, defensive, divisional strength, and schedule strength all season made up for their record.
So now we head into the playoffs, and I will continue to update the rankings each week. Even though many teams aren’t playing, we will still see some slight changes among the non-playoff teams each week thanks to a few of the things factoring into the rankings being affected by the playoff teams. Let’s take a look at this week’s games and use the rankings to pick the winners:
#1 Colts over #10 Chargers
#3 Dolphins over #5 Ravens
#11 Falcons over #15 Cardinals
#8 Eagles over #13 Vikings
#4 Panthers, #6 Titans, #7 Steelers, and #9 Giants have byes
Here are the full ranks:
1. Colts – 77.21 – +1
2. Patriots – 72.90 – +5
3. Dolphins – 72.70 – +2
4. Panthers – 71.96 – Even
5. Ravens – 71.20 – +1
6. Titans – 70.63 – -5
7. Steelers – 68.27 – +2
8. Eagles – 67.80 – +2
9. Giants – 66.24 – -6
10. Chargers – 64.84 – +3
11. Falcons – 64.63 – -3
12. Bears – 58.58 – -1
13. Vikings – 57.20 – -1
14. Saints – 52.12 – +1
15. Cardinals – 49.72 – +5
16. Jets – 49.21 – Even
17. Texans – 49.10 – +2
18. Buccaneers – 46.74 – -4
19. Redskins – 45.93 – -1
20. Packers – 44.86 – +4
21. Cowboys – 42.51 – -4
22. Bengals – 41.90 – +4
23. 49ers – 41.55 – -1
24. Bills – 39.48 – -3
25. Raiders – 36.35 – +4
26. Jaguars – 34.63 – -1
27. Broncos – 33.45 – -4
28. Seahawks – 31.75 – Even
29. Browns – 31.65 – -2
30. Chiefs – 22.52 – Even
31. Rams – 15.45 – Even
32. Lions – 11.74 – Even
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