NFL Power Ranks: Week 17

First, I’d like to wish ourselves a happy 5 year anniversary of sports writing! Ryan and I started the old Is It Sports? site on Geocities on January 5, 2005. I never would have thought we would have almost 2,000 posts 5 years later (mostly by Ryan, or course). It’s been a lot of fun and I hope the next 5 years are even better!

The regular season finally came to an exciting end this past week, and the playoff picture is finally set. As I said last week, the ranks are totally based on a formula and do not compensate for a team benching its starters at the end of the year, so we sometimes see some bizarre things happen at this point of the season. In a way, this explains why we have a new #1 heading into the playoffs, the San Diego Chargers. They benched a lot of starters this week too, but faced a Redskins team so bad that their backups came away with the win. The Colts, who also benched starters, lost their 2nd in a row to drop to #3. The Packers blew out the Cardinals just for fun in Arizona to move up to #2, and will have a rematch next week. The Eagles fell to #5 after being completely dominated by Dallas (yet stayed ahead of them), and also despite losing, the Patriots moved up to #4.

If we must discuss the bottom 5, the Chiefs win over the Broncos to seal Denver’s 4th choke of a season in a row moved them out of the bottom 5, and they were replaced by the Raiders, always a good team to fill the bottom 5 void. Seattle fell to their season low #30, and everyone else stayed the same. The Rams are on the clock.

This week, 3 teams moved up 5 spots, the Vikings to #8 after blowing out the Giants, the Browns all the way to #19 after winning their 4th in a row, and the Bills to #20 after blowing out the Colts backups. The Cardinals and Bengals both dropped 6 spots after being blown out by the teams they will face this weekend in the playoffs. As in past years, the ranks will continue throughout the playoffs.

So now lets look ahead to the playoffs. Here are the ranks of each of the playoff teams:
AFC
1. Colts #3
2. Chargers #1
3. Patriots #4
4. Bengals #18
5. Jets #11
6. Ravens #6
NFC
1. Saints #10
2. Vikings #8
3. Cowboys #7
4. Cardinals #16
5. Packers #2
6. Eagles #5

Some of the lower ranks by the top teams are due to tanking and/or benching starters at then end of the year. In the Cardinals’ case, its pretty much status quo for the season. The Texans finished the regular season #9 and are the highest ranked non-playoff team (ranked higher than the Saints, Jets, Cardinals, and Bengals). The Falcons, 49ers, Steelers, and Panthers are ahead of the Cardinals and Bengals, and the Titans are nestled in between Arizona and Cincinnati.

So what happens this week? The ranks have the Packers and Jets winning clearly over the Cardinals and Bengals, and they give a slight edge to the Patriots over the Ravens. The Cowboys are Eagles are kind of a crap shoot with the game being in Dallas, but the ranks are going with the Eagles.

Unrelated to the ranks, here are my playoff predictions (and it includes a Ryan nightmare scenario)
Wild Card
NFC
Packers over Cardinals
Eagles over Cowboys (the ‘Boys will surely not prepare well enough for this game after last week)
AFC
Jets over Bengals (I think the Jets are just better, especially defensively)
Ravens over Patriots (yep, going with all the road teams, and I don’t trust Brady’s ribs)
Divisional
NFC
Eagles over Saints (I think the Saints are DOA)
Packers over Vikings (Favre’s career (hopefully) ends with a loss to Green Bay)
AFC
Colts over Ravens
Chargers over Jets
Conference
Packers over Eagles (yeah, its a crazy sleeper, but I trust my ranks, especially in Lambeau)
Chargers over Colts (doesn’t this always happen?)
Super Bowl
Chargers over Packers

Here are the final regular season ranks:
1. Chargers – 77.60 – +1
2. Packers – 72.46 – +2
3. Colts – 69.41 – -2
4. Patriots – 68.74 – +1
5. Eagles – 68.55 – -2
6. Ravens – 68.17 – +2
7. Cowboys – 67.62 – Even
8. Vikings – 66.43 – +5
9. Texans – 64.54 – +2
10. Saints – 62.11 – -4
11. Jets – 62.03 – -2
12. Falcons – 61.52 – +3
13. 49ers – 60.02 – +3
14. Panthers – 58.35 – Even
15. Steelers – 58.78 – +2
16. Cardinals – 52.01 – -6
17. Titans – 51.89 – +3
18. Bengals – 50.05 – -6
19. Browns – 45.23 – +5
20. Bills – 44.63 – +5
21. Bears – 43.73 – +2
22. Broncos – 43.48 – -4
23. Giants – 41.82 – -4
24. Dolphins – 38.39 – -3
25. Jaguars – 35.88 – -3
26. Buccaneers – 32.23 – +1
27. Chiefs – 31.19 – +3
28. Redskins – 30.66 – Even
29. Raiders – 28.02 – -3
30. Seahawks – 23.59 – -1
31. Lions – 15.60 – Even
32. Rams – 11.04 – Even