NFL Week 11 Expert Picks Against The Spread
*Odds courtesy of BetOnline. The odds are correct at the time of publication but are subject to change.
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NFL Week 11 Expert Picks Against the Spread
Miami Dolphins -14 (-110)
Double-digit favorites are 11-1 SU, 9-3 ATS this season — best start ATS through Week 10 since 1990 https://t.co/NPR3nBzooK
— Evan Abrams (@EvanHAbrams) November 17, 2023
What a difference a few weeks makes for the Las Vegas Raiders. After firing Josh McDaniels, the Raiders are 2-0 with Antonio Pierce as the interim head coach.
The Raiders’ two wins have come against Tommy DeVito’s New York Giants and Zach Wilson’s New York Jets. Those are two of the worst offenses in the league.
Miami, on the other hand, has one of the best offenses in football. The Dolphins are first in total yards (435.3 yards/g), passing yards (287.4 yards/g), and points (31.7 yards/g).
Miami’s offense could see the return of rookie sensation De’Von Achane, who is listed as questionable. Achane is eligible to return from a knee injury after going on IR for the past month.
This line opened at 10, and it’s now at 14. That’s never a good sign. However, I’m not buying the rejuvenated Raiders. They played two bad teams at home with below-average quarterbacks.
Tua Tagovailoa has been one of the best statistical quarterbacks all season. Tua is also 5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS as a double-digit favorite (Evan Abrams of Action Network). Miami turns this into a track meet and races by the Raiders to cover.
Pittsburgh Steelers +1 (-103)
Mike Tomlin is 24-5 vs rookie QBs pic.twitter.com/Oy1yiShvuS
— Steven Golden (@GBpickem) November 17, 2023
It happened again in Pittsburgh. The Steelers were outgained in Week 10 (399-324). Yet, they had one good drive that led to points in the fourth quarter, and the defense made a play to seal the victory against the Packers.
This team makes no sense. The Steelers have been outgained in all nine games, and their record is 6-3. This is the best coaching job of Mike Tomlin’s career.
Now, the Steelers hit the road to play the Cleveland Browns, where they will face rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson. DTR replaces Deshaun Watson, who is out the rest of the season with a shoulder injury.
This game will be a defensive battle. Just look at the total, which is 32.5 points. The punters should see a lot of work.
When push comes to shove, trust Tomlin in this spot. Tomlin is 24-5 SU against rookie quarterbacks. One of those losses came against C.J. Stroud this year. However, DTR is not Stroud. Trust Tomlin to win an ugly game.