Week 5 of the NFL commences with the Denver Broncos hosting the Indianapolis Colts on Thursday evening, and we are taking a comprehensive look ahead to this week’s games by offering up some of our expert ‘against the spread’ picks for those eager for some bigger value bets.
Detroit Lions vs New England Patriots: Lions +3 @ +100 with BetOnline
This is a puzzling clash to try and decipher – both sides are 1-3 so far this season, but the Lions have looked far more convincing than the Patriots who are seemingly entering a transition period.
Detroit are averaging a league-high 35 points despite losing three times, while the Patriots have the league’s 25th-best defense. Although the Lions sit even deeper in the rankings in 30th, their offensive prowess has been commendable so far this season, and the Patriots have registered two sub-20 point games already after just four games, which is a worrying statistic for New England fans.
While we have selected the Lions as our against the spread pick, our best bet for this one actually goes to Over 45 1/2 points at -113.
Lions fixtures are 4-0 for the over this season, averaging 21 points more points than the total, while they have a 70.3 average combined points with their opponent.
| Team | Moneyline | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Detroit Lions | +136 |  |
| New England Patriots | -156 | |
Cincinnati Bengals vs Baltimore Ravens: Bengals +3 @ -103 with BetOnline
As per TruMedia, there is a notable statistic that underpins our reasoning for our next against the spread pick.
There is no denying the Ravens are strong contenders to finish top of the AFC North this season, and with Lamar Jackson in the hole they look a formidable offensive threat.
However, last season’s fairytale Super Bowl finalists the Bengals can upset the status quo this weekend. Cincinnati, when you remove turnovers, have scored 17 more points than expected when taking into account the down, distance and field position of each play, while Baltimore have scored 17 fewer points than expected.
This distinction could prove to be decisive in what is expected to be a narrow fixture given both sides are 2-2, but the Bengals have also moved up to 11th in defensive power rankings. While there is no way of accounting for MVP-calibre Lamar Jackson, if they can neutralise his threat and tap into their solid record of opponents averaging 241.8 yards-per-game, this selection could prove worthy.
| Team | Moneyline | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati Bengals | +148 | |
| Baltimore Ravens | -168 | |
Indianapolis Colts vs Denver Broncos: Colts +3 @ -102 with BetOnline
Neither of these team have been convincing which makes this a potentially dangerous fixture to gamble with. Nonetheless, Thursday’s meeting sees the two lowest scoring offences in the AFC so far this season, with just 125 points between them across eight combined games.
Denver outside linebacker Randy Gregory he’s been formidable in a tight-knit defence, but is ruled out through injury which is a major boost for a struggling Indianapolis offensive line. To make matters worse for the Broncos, Russel Wilson is thought to be carrying a niggling shoulder injury so his throwing ability will be hampered, which will in-turn limit their passing yardage.
While Denver will relish being back at Mile High, we think the Colts have enough to cover the spread given the current underwhelming state of the hosts.
| Team | Moneyline | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Indianpolis Colts | +150 | |
| Denver Broncos | -170 | |
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