Depending on how the next couple seasons go, the deal that netted the team Nick Tropeano and Carlos Pérez could either go down as Jerry Dipoto’s best trade or simply a top-five one. That he was able to finagle two MLB-ready prospects with upside from the Astros in return for just Hank Conger seems like minor miracle now, just 16 months later. Conger is now not only on another team entirely, he was also acquired by that team this winter for straight cash. God bless the overvaluing of catcher framing.
While Pérez has the Angels’ starting catcher gig locked in for 2016, but Tropeano’s immediate role with the team is a little uncertain. He pitched much better down the stretch last year than either Matt Shoemaker or Hector Santiago, but those two still probably have a leg up on the two guaranteed rotation vacancies (C.J. Wilson and Tyler Skaggs) come opening day. If Jered Weaver’s back ultimately puts him on the DL as well, then Tropeano is in. That’s easily the best-case scenario for the club, as much as it pains me to say.
Position: SP | Age (2016): 25
Bats: R | Throws: R
Height: 6’4” | Weight: 200
2015 WAR: 0.1
2015 in a Tweet
Nick Tropeano made the odd spot start for the Halos in the season’s first five months, then stepped up huge in September—21.1 IP, 2.53 ERA.
2016 Projections
[table id=177 /]Neither PECOTA and Steamer expect Tropeano to get much big-league playing time in 2016, but what little they project is still pretty dang good. If you extrapolate both projections out to the ~140 IP that ZiPS gives Tropeano, he projects to be a 1.1–1.5 WAR player this season—solid for a guy with just 59⅓ MLB innings to his name.
PECOTA seems to operating under the assumption that Tropeano will get more relief appearances (19) than starts (3), but I’m having trouble envisioning a scenario where he gets any time in the bullpen. The Angels simply have too many relief arms without options remaining for him to fit anywhere; they’re not going to put Cory Rasmus on waivers just so they can try Tropeano in the ‘pen.
If you believe Tropeano can eventually match his peripherals from the majors, there’s reason to take the over on his projected walk and strikeout rates. While his ERAs haven’t always been pretty as he’s made his way up the ladder, his peripherals (9.2 K/9; 2.8 BB/9) have been stellar.
Pitch Usage
We’re working with just under 60 innings of data in total here, so there’s nothing super definitive to be drawn from any of these charts. What we can say is that Tropeano seems to be primarily a three-pitch guy (fastball, change-up, slider) and that his choice of offspeed stuff tends to hinge on which pitch will move away from the hitter—i.e. he throws his slider mainly to righties; his change mainly to lefties.
It’s worth keeping an eye on whether his splitter turns into a reliable fourth pitch or not. He threw it only about twice per start last year, not nearly enough to make hitters consider it.
Zone Profile
Other than the random (and somewhat troubling) red square in the heart of the plate against right-handed hitters, Tropeano seems to stick to the Huston Street approach of attacking batters: Away, away, away. This makes a certain amount of sense, as his fastball isn’t overpowering and his go-to secondary pitches break away from hitters, but it remains to be seen if it’s an effective long-term strategy for Tropeano. It could spell trouble if batters start sitting on fastballs away.
Fun Fact
On his Stony Brook baseball bio page, Tropeano lists that his favorite athlete is Lance Armstrong. Bet he wishes he had access to the athletics page CMS so he could update that.
What to Watch For
Tropeano fanned about a batter per inning at every stop in the minors without overpowering stuff. He managed to translate that to the majors (9.1 K/9) in 2015, albeit in a small sample. If Tropeano can come anywhere near that rate in 2016, the Angels will have a hard time pushing him out of the rotation when C.J. Wilson and/or Jered Weaver return.
A Bold Prediction
Tropeano will solidify his position as a mid-rotation MLB starter early in the season, forcing the Angels to put Jered Weaver in the bullpen as a mop-up guy.
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More Previews: Yunel Escobar; Kole Calhoun; Mike Trout; Albert Pujols; C.J. Cron; Daniel Nava; Carlos Pérez; Johnny Giavotella; Geovany Soto; Andrelton Simmons; Cliff Pennington; Jered Weaver; Andrew Heaney; Garrett Richards; Hector Santiago; Matt Shoemaker; Huston Street
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