NL Central Focus: 4/5/16

This week, the chase for the Central gets underway, but before the teams fully get into the gauntlet of the chase for the division crown in baseball’s toughest division, let’s look at season previews for the competition the Pittsburgh Pirates will face.

With just one game under everyone’s belts, it’s time for some season predictions about how the other teams in the NL Central will fare.   Next week, we will have more in-depth recaps and analysis, as well as some new features.

St. Louis Cardinals

No one would advise counting the St. Louis Cardinals out of the race for the division.  Any team that has won the division title for three consecutive years cannot have their chances discredited.  If Sunday was any indication, Adam Wainwright will still be formidable atop their rotation.  Carlos Martinez could be the best number five starter in all of baseball with the only one that could even hope to challenge that assumption being Zack Wheeler of the New York Mets.

The Pirates struck out 14 Cardinals batters on Sunday.  The Cardinals hitters looked unusually impatient at the plate.  That trend won’t last all season, and by the sixth inning they already started to look back to form working counts, not chasing pitches that started too low in the zone, or swinging at strikes that would have resulted in pop-ups or easy groundballs.  In my season preview for the Cardinals, available here, I said the Red Birds would be in trouble if they started losing players to injuries.  If the last two Pirates seasons are any indication, it is an uphill struggle to win the Central division following a slow start.

Following injuries to Jhonny Peralta and Ruben Tejada, the Cards are really limited in middle infield depth for half of the first month until Tejada returns.  Jedd Gyorko will start at shortstop until Tejada is healthy, which leaves Greg Garcia as the only backup middle infield option until then.  The Cardinals face a reprieve after the Pirates as they take on the Braves, Brewers, and Reds before taking on the Cubs at home.  If they can’t capitalize on that stretch, the Cardinals could be in the same boat as the 2015 Pirates.  Look for the bullpen and bench depth let the Cardinals down sooner or later this season.

2015 record: 100-62

2016 record prediction: 85-77

Division: 3rd

Playoffs: No

Chicago Cubs

In 2015, the Cubs emerged as the ferocious force everyone assumed they would one day become.  Bolstered by a large group of prospects arriving on the big stage and a payroll one of the biggest cities in the country can support, the Cubs hung on in the division race right until the last week.  Entering 2016, they appear to be a force to be reckoned with after a great finish to spring training following a disappointing start.

If the Cardinals, arguably, have the best starting rotation in the division, the Cubs’ rotation comes in at a close second.  With Jake Arrieta and Jon Lester anchoring the top of the rotation and John Lackey, Jason Hammel, and Kyle Hendricks rounding out the bottom, the Cubs will be able to stay in most games throughout the season.  Their ability to do so will be aided by the best infield in all of baseball, which outside of Ben Zobrist, is still incredibly young.  Anthony Rizzo is almost certain to compete for the NL homerun crown, and he may face tough competition from his own teammate if rookie wonder Kris Bryant can dodge the sophomore slump.

The only real weaknesses are the current bullpen and lack of bench depth.  The prior could be aided by a group of solid relief prospects that could contribute in 2016.  In a division where the Cardinals and Cubs are competing for a distant second to the Pirates in best bullpen, the emphasis will weigh that much heavier on the rotation to get the job done.  With that said, the bullpen is still good, albeit lacking flare for the extraordinary, and if the starting lineup can stay healthy, the bench shouldn’t be too much of a concern.  If that changes, the Cubs’ seemingly bottomless wallet and top-of-the-line minor league system should be able to find a way to keep them atop the division for much of the season.

2015 record: 97-65

2016 record prediction: 94-68

Division: 1st

Playoffs: Yes

Cincinnati Reds

If the Reds wanted any chance to avoid a 100 loss season, they certainly didn’t get started on the right foot.  To start the season, they had to place five pitchers on the disabled list.  Their starting rotation currently consists of just three pitchers Raisel Iglesias, Brandon Finnegan, and Alfredo Simon will take the mound in the Philadelphia Phillies series.  Beyond that, Dan Straily and Keyvius Sampson are candidates to fill in until Homer Bailey’s ambitious May 1 return from Tommy John surgery.

When he made his debut in 2013, Billy Hamilton was hailed as the future stolen base king.  Now, he’s the chief example of how the Reds’ system has failed.  Their starting lineup speaks volumes of name recognition; the perennial All-Star Joey Votto, Jay Bruce, Brandon Phillips, and Devin Mesoraco all provide solid veteran leadership.  However, for one reason or another, the Reds failed to put anything together each of the last two years

The Reds bench may not even be as good as the Pirates Triple-A affiliate Indianapolis Indians’ bench, although the Reds bench does include former Pirates minor leaguer Ivan De Jesus Jr.  The bullpen may be in the running for worst in the league before the season is over.

Overall, this Reds team is entering a rebuilding process similar to the one the Pirates endured.  They traded away some of their top players, and they got very little in return.  It could be a long, long time before the Reds are competitive again, contrary to what others may say.  They just missed losing a 100 games in 2015; in 2016, they are almost certain to clear it.

2015 record:  64-98

2016 record prediction: 57-105

Division: 5th

Playoffs: No

Milwaukee Brewers

Despite being in the same boat as the Reds in starting their rebuild this year, the Brewers are considerably further along in the process.  They got good compensation for their Carlos Gomez, Francisco Rodriguez, Adam Lind, Jason Rogers, and Khris Davis.

The roster is led by Ryan Braun, who returns to left field in 2016, and one of the game’s better catchers in Jonathan Lucroy.  The rest of the starting lineup is filled out by young fielders in Jonathan Villar, Scooter Gennett, and Domingo Santana and a veteran presence in Aaron Hill, Chris Carter, and Kirk Nieuwenhuis.  It’s not an overly impressive lineup, but it will keep them in more games than not.

Where it gets impressive is their young rotation.  Wily Peralta is being counted on as a top of the rotation starter entirely too soon, and entering his fourth year, he has yet to show the upside he first displayed during his debut in 2012.  If he can put it together, he could be a solid innings eater.  The bullpen has some young, yet unimpressive, talent.  The Brewers lack a true closer, or setup man for that matter, at this point.  The LCL tear Will Smith suffered didn’t help matters.

The Brewers have all of the ingredients to be competitive in a few years for the first time since 2011, but that won’t help them much this year.  The bullpen should fail.  The rotation will have to continue undergoing growing pains, and the lineup will not be enough to overcome their pitching struggles.  They could still prove to be a nuisance to contenders though, so they are not to be taken too lightly.

2015 record: 68-94

2016 record prediction: 68-94

Division: 4th

Playoffs: No

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